Seeing a lot of salary cap charts using raw dollars and W-L. Compare each team’s payroll to that year’s median, and talent (BaseRuns) instead of record: the correlation is .42. Last year’s record vs this year’s: .55. 29 of 31 champions (1995-2025) had an above-median payroll.

How playoff catchers stack up on ABS challenges vs. an average playoff catcher Hicks (TB) +0.22 runs, 3-2 Contreras (MIL) +0.06, 7-7 Bailey (CLE) +0.01, 4-7 Hedges (CLE) −0.39, 2-0 Smith (LAD) −0.48, 2-2 Above the line = better than average

With Tango’s newer method, a lost challenge costs less as the game goes on. On average, a 3-0 challenge only has to be right 1 in 4 times early, 1 in 8 by the 7th, 1 in 20 in the 9th. About half of these calls were wrong. Hitters challenged about 6% of them.

A 3-0 challenge isn’t that bad. On average, a missed call at 3-0 is worth as much as 0-2. Hitters challenge it almost 6x less. It’s a terminal count, just like 0-2. Would you let a hitter back into a count up 0-2 or get a K? “Worst case you’re 3-1” is the pitcher’s best case.

From purely a fan perspective, the AFL rules seem good. A rough model projects fewer singles and more extra-base hits. Hitters are rewarded for hard contact. Fielders are forced to field. What am I missing?