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My Public Health Truths (a "living" thread).
There are few "truths" in public health, but the following include those I have observed in quantitative & qualitative studies, community engagement, and program implementation independent of socioeconomic or geographic contexts.
Celebrating the murder of a healthcare exec is not a pro-universal health care take.
It is an insane take.
Viruses have been around forever and will be around forever.
They are part of our ecosystem.
That said, if we can avoid unnecessary morbidity (sickness) and mortality (death) related to them, then I'm supportive. In fact, that has been the basis of my professional life for many years.
However, 99.9% of the population never noticed my work since it didn't affect them. The work was focused on providing evidence-based services to people that wanted and would particularly benefit from these services rather than trying to restrict the general public as a means of limiting exposure.
And I remain committed to that work.
It has been fascinating to see virologists, psychiatrists, journalists, and beyond claim that there was an archetype of a COVID-19 response represented by harsh punitive and regressive strategies. And that any deviation from recommending a harsh response suggests that one was fringe and responsible for the deaths of many.
These folks regularly suggest that lockdowns, vaccine passports, and school closures are standard in public health emergencies. But that simply is untrue.
What is true then?
In the first few days of a highly localized outbreak of new symptoms, it would be reasonable to recommend highly localized limitations on movement in and out of a city for example. This might be a few days or up to a week for the investigation to take place to keep localizing the source and ideally avoid a broader outbreak, epidemic, and even pandemic. This is more of a pipedream than reality, but if symptoms were caught early enough, then this could help. Interesting anecdote? The statistic that we use to detect significant excesses of cases is the Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. Yes, that Kulldorf. (ie, Martin Kulldorf).
But during COVID-19, the outbreak likely started in late summer or early fall of 2019. People had been flying out of the international airport in Wuhan for months by the time the travel restrictions were put in place. By that time, the virus was effectively all over the world though there was no testing in place. And the ways that most of the world implemented lockdowns was the most bourgeois way possible where it just meant that wealthier folks ordered stuff to their homes. Or where restaurants were closed for in-person dining, but their kitchens busy preparing home deliveries and streams of delivery teams in and out of the building. I don't know if absolute risks decreased during that time, but they did further concentrate among economically marginalized folks who were already at higher risk of both infection and ultimately morbidity and mortality.
What about vaccine passports?
People would go online and show their yellow fever cards and thus suggest that this is a common tool in public health which simply is untrue.
So what is true?
There are some occupational mandates for influenza but even then it generally doesn't mean being fired if unwilling but rather restricted working conditions (ie, dont work if an outbreak underway and/or wear a mask. But no, we have never required vaccination to enter a mall or sit in a coffee shop or to stay employed in the context of effectively every industry.
What about having police doing public health work?
In the extremes, police have gotten involved in public health. For example, if there was evidence of an outbreak related to a setting like a tattoo shop or restaurant, public health may order it to close. If they refuse, can ask police in exceptional settings to enforce closure. But this is exceedingly rare and normally public health works with the vendor to fix the issue. Police serve all kinds of critical roles in society, but I see an extremely limited role for them in the context of public health.
The issue is that editors of even prestigious legacy media entities know very little about public health. So it is difficult for them to effectively fact check when someone writes an editorial or goes on the news to say that this is standard public health practice when it is anything but.
Anyhoo, so it goes.
This is not meant to be an exhaustive list and actually barely scratches the surface.
We also need to eventually talk about differential travel restrictions, testing strategies, conflicts of interest (both financial and otherwise), politicization, school-related closures, assessments of causally linked morbidity and mortality, etc.
But just off an 18 hour flight and felt I would share a little before getting back to work.
This included many people experiencing homelessness with medical mistrust that could not be overcome by mandates not being able to access warm spaces during winter.
Judging folks may feel nice, but serves no role in advancing public health programs.
healthydebate.ca/2021/11/top…
I have an admission that explains most of my perspectives towards COVID.
On March 12, 2020, we set up an isolation site for people experiencing homelessness as they were not allowed back into their shelters. Anyone who had a pretty broad range of even mild symptoms in the shelter system was admitted and given a nasopharyngeal swab (ie, way up the nose) and then given a private room until we could get test results back.
Back then it was taking 2 weeks to get test results back so most of the folks went through their illness and then came out of it. The whole time I assumed none of these folks could have COVID given the sorts of messages being advanced on TV. I was in their rooms sometimes doing physical exams, sometimes talking, etc and had plenty of exposures. I also never got sick.
But then something strange happened, some of their test results came back positive which shocked all parties (the patients and us health care workers). There wasn't much to do since they were more than two weeks out and they were discharged back to their regular shelters.
That taught me that while of course there were many people in the hospitals and really sick, the clinical course was highly heterogeneous.
We even had a parent-child combo where the child tested positive but the parent didn't.
This taught me that sustained and intense exposures were not always going to equate to positive tests.
I carried the admission pager for this shelter for about two weeks and would get dozens of calls from emergency rooms asking if folks could be admitted since they had nowhere to isolate in their homes and were in multigenerational households. We could not offer them space and those folks were discharged from hospital and went back into their homes were all would be exposed and some at risk of getting very sick.
That taught me early that what was needed was resources and not arbitrary restrictions.
Each day I would drive from my middle class neighborhood that looked like the zombie apocalypse with not a person in sight outside of the odd person walking a dog to more lower income parts of town where both the shelter where I provided clinical care and the isolation site were located. In this part of town, traffic at the height of lockdowns was still significant. I would see piles of uber eats folks waiting at restaurants for their pick ups.
That taught me that even during lockdowns, many (many!) folks were out working so others could stay home.
All to say, I saw all of this firsthand by the third week of March, 2020 and it has clearly guided my perspective towards covid since.
At the beginning of covid, I was worried that academics personally attacking other academics with whom they didn't agree would undermine the respect for academia and ultimately the power of evidence in driving policy.
But that ship has long since sailed and the respect for academics and academia has been permanently diminished.
I don't know the way forward as many of the self-professed misinfo or disinfo specialists are amongst the worst perpetrators of this.
But in 2024, it is clear that the power in driving policy and programs no longer lives with academia, it lives with social media companies.
Moving forward necessitates social media companies not prioritizing or deprioritizing (or even censoring) perspectives based on politics or social pressures.
Social media research companies do not need to be the ones generating evidence. But they are now the primary marketplace for how evidence turns into policy or programs.
And while the primary mission of social media companies will always be to make money, these companies doing a good job operating the evidence marketplace is central to our collective future.
This is a great example of reporters so focused on attacking Trump that the message that schools should stay closed was seen as an evidenced-based decision when it wasn't.
All pandemic preparedness plans said the same thing: schools should have been last to close and first to open.
But political fights transcended evidence and schools stayed closed for in person learning.
I can only hope that politics will play less of a role in future pandemic responses.
But who am I kidding as of course politics will trump evidence.
And that will harm us all (and our kids).
If the coverage of an intervention is suboptimal, key to consider both determinants of provision and uptake.
Determinants of provision include system and provider issues whereas determinants of uptake focus on users.
If you focus only on uptake, likely missing half the story.
Tuesday Afternoon Poll
Did data aggregators/COVID Trackers help or harm the COVID response?
Our World In Data
Worldometer
JHU COVID Tracker
(and many many more)
28%Helpful!
51%Harmful!
17%Made no difference.
4%Your polls are terrible.
904 votes • Final resultsI think safe to say that any choreographed dance number from people dressed in scrubs has made the average person lose trust in the healthcare establishment.
COVID-Zero was only a viable and sustainable solution on social media given that 99.9% of its prophets and believers were and remain active on these platforms.
The coverage in legacy media was driven by a few believers with platforms in well-established newspapers and journals and then a much broader group of reporters in need of click-throughs and engagement associated with them turning to social media stars for inputs and then asking these same folks to post these articles to their audiences.
Concurrently, data aggregators spat out effectively useless data at people all day long that were also covered and turned covid into a global public health olympics with medal counts replaced by covid numbers.
In addition, we had multiple industries realizing this time could and would be associated with huge profits if they messaged appropriately.
There is a lot to go through when we really to try and tease out why things played out the way they did during covid.
The one thing clear to me?
It had remarkably little to do with public health.
Always bewildering when you meet someone who wants to be called Dr. but refers to everyone else by their first name.
Any chance the issue is that we pushed people harder for covid vaccines than for any other vaccine in recent history?
Any chance many folks are just pissed about it?
Why many more people are lining up for a flu shot than a Covid vaccine statnews.com/2024/01/22/flu-…
@saragorm: "...Covid vaccine has come to symbolize identity politics in a way that no other vaccine really has."
Yep. Misinformation + ideology = < vaccine uptake.
via @statnews by @HelenBranswell w @ProfHeidiLarson @jasonlschwartz
Research can act as advocacy, but there's always a line.
Don't change your methods to support your advocacy.
If you do that, then it's just a commentary with some numbers.
Why not compare HIV and COVID:
HIV eventually kills all people infected by it.
HIV is preventable.
HIV treatment allows people living with HIV to live normal lives.
Why compare HIV with COVID:
Shock factor.
Shoddy preprints.
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