Writer. Formerly @CrisisGroup & @themoscownews. Author of Rebel Russia, Downfall (with Mark Galeotti), Hybrid Warriors & The Putin Mystique
A Russian-American abroad.
Joined January 2011
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The Russians were doing this before it became cool
Yikes. Ukrainian prosecutors have formally named @IuliiaMendel, Zelensky’s former press secretary, a treason suspect, citing her Tucker Carlson interview and social media posts. She is also accused of the crime of "justifying Russia’s aggression." gp.gov.ua/ua/posts/ukrayina-…
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
When one good read ends, another begins. I’ve been looking forward to this one!
Not sure the feline agrees though… 📚🐈
#Russia #Ukraine #democracy #disinformation #cats
The benefit is to the Kremlin, not consumers. Aside from the temporary license to sell, which it welcomed so much that it lifted its export ban, now Washington is invested in Kyiv reducing its long-range strikes on Russian refineries without Moscow having to do the same.
So Moscow leveraged sanctions relief in energy truce. But seems that Kyiv's refusal of an energy truce as long as economic benefits for Moscow were in play has led to Moscow getting the economic benefits anyway (because Trump needed the diesel) without any energy truce for Kyiv.
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
Saw my pal @MarkGaleotti in London - He and his coauthor @scrawnya signed their copy of their Prigozhin book to me “to one bad boy, about another”… zing !!!!
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
Just a note, this is the sort of concrete thing actual, historical fascism did. Not 'shift one broadcaster's editorial line from the center-left to the center' or 'write an article I don't like in the Atlantic' or 'be mean on social media.'
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
So NYT is says Ratcliffe visited Moscow to puncture over-rosy spin of the war reaching Putin
Who would give Putin those +ve assessments? Naryshkin + Bortnikov, respectively heads of SVR and FSB
Who did Ratcliffe meet? Naryshkin + Bortnikov
Who would relay takes of the meeting to Putin? Naryshkin + Bortnikov
Anyone else spot the flaw in this plan?
(For the record, I'm not convinced that was Ratcliffe's mission)
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
Interesting points from Carnegie's Alexander Gabuev, who notes that we generally know what Putin wants, even though he sometimes lies. With Zelensky, however, we never know if his rhetoric reflects real strategy or is just "some message" intended for Kyiv's fickle Western allies.
The liberal-nationalist horseshoe that also shows how absurd the whole "axis of authoritarianism" discourse (not just from Snyder) really is. Good highlights from Mr. Kevin
A very interesting article from Marlène Laruelle on the mirrored "master concepts" that fuel the prophecies of Timothy Snyder and Alexander Dugin. I've marked some of the most provocative passages. theideasletter.org/essay/in-…
Russian nationalists, unlike liberal decolonialists, admit that they are nationalists. The delusion of many modern liberals is the refusal to acknowledge their appropriation of identarianism from the far right. They lost the capacity to oppose it & joined it without meaning to
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
Sometimes I find it helpful to think of Ukraine's wartime emergency regime as an ersatz Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth under one of the stronger kings (and before the Liberum Veto was fully abused). A mix of a semi-coherent, but internally fractious noble republic and an unchanging, technically elective, monarchical executive with war being the primary focus of the elite. Mechanisms of accountability run through the machinations of magnate factions, somewhat constrained foreign influence, the whispered threat of military revolt, and institutions that would gum up the works *way* more if it wasn't for that strong king figure and the very present, existential threat of Russians.
The number of seemingly intelligent people in the comments here who can't seem to grasp that pointing out the consequence of an action is not the same as advocating against that action - & the general refusal to acknowledge potential consequences - is pretty depressing.
Ukraine’s audacious attacks may just play into Putin’s hands
Unfortunate headline/subhead (not mine) that make it sound as if I blame Kyiv for whatever may happen (I don't), but me in @thetimes on how deep strikes may make Putin desperate enough to take more risks
thetimes.com/world/russia-uk…
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
I understand the moral uproar at this announcement, but the fact of the matter is having some connections & interaction on transnational criminal issues is better than not; it's statecraft & useful so long as clarity is maintained that both parties aren't always on the same page.
EXCLUSIVE: Under Patel, FBI forges unprecedented law enforcement ties with China, Russia | Reuters reuters.com/world/china/unde…
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
An important and brave study that maps a spectrum of ideological, accommodationist, and "nomadic" motivations and practices among Ukrainian citizens faced with the choice of whether or not to take Russian citizenship, a choice that millions of Ukrainians have faced and continue to face. The data are far more interesting than their presentation in the abstract suggests. Not without some contradictions and self-censorship in the article, they clearly do not fit the ethnonationalist narrative about the war.
"Our study demonstrates resistance to quite symmetric policies of the Russian and Ukrainian governments, aimed at intensification of identity-building efforts in the territories they control and consolidation of population around ideology in order to encourage their active participation in the war or at least to intensify open support to one of the fighting crimes (‘special military operation’ or Armed Forces of Ukraine) via public statements, financial transfers or a more comprehensive set of measures for the engagement of citizens in a public demonstration of loyalty. Our respondents-nomads demonstrated efforts to avoid any public statements at all costs.
For Ukrainian citizens-nomads, mobility is the key value (the ability to move from country to country, from Ukraine to Russia and back). While both Ukrainian and Russian governments try to ‘settle’ (in the vocabulary of our respondents ‘to enserve’) the citizens, whom they consider as ‘their own’ through the limitations of their mobility by direct and indirect measures, our respondents make every effort to preserve their rights on free movement between the conflicting countries, which they consider as the key mechanism for implementing their individual life strategies. In the logic of life strategies, our respondents-nomads, who like wolves, depend on their legs for a living, the decision of accepting Russian citizenship can be translated/explained as a reaction to the policy of Ukrainian government to restrict mobility of ‘mobilization resources’ from the country: ‘closed borders.’ And vice versa, the introduction of restrictive measures by the Russian government (respondents mentioned difficulties in obtaining and usage of the Russian foreign passports), which can potentially limit possibility to leave the occupied territories or Russia, serves as a trigger for implementing life strategies, aimed at immediate departure from the occupied territories or developing additional measures, guaranteeing the departure."
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
This is what I was talking about. Banger. Like with philology, we're basically meming ourselves into forgetting sociology and will have to reinvent the concept of 'the social fact' later in the century from first principles.
Poor Durkheim.
Most intelligent people haven’t got a clue about social explanation. They understand only psychological, cultural and biological explanation. Which creates naive voluntarist views about global events. Which means people try to explain the depoliticisation of Russians, or the fantasy of Trumpists without reference to the conditions of modernity, the impact of economic forces, and so on. Which makes them freak out because their repertory of explanation goes a certain way, but simply fails to explain the world around them.
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
1/ Both Kyiv and Moscow are now buying time - for different reasons. Ukraine is to make its integration into European security infrastructure irreversible before any settlement. Russia is buying time for attrition. That is the central conclusion of the new Essential Ukraine #27
Anna Arutunyan retweeted
Easy to explain: control of defense funds, managing political competition. Hard to grasp: even though these factors were foundation of his rule from the beginning.
“Volodymyr Zelenskyy has earned a place in the history books for his courageous and indefatigable leadership against Russia’s brutal aggression. But his political management at home is sometimes baffling, hard to justify and counter-productive. This is one of those occasions.”
@FT Editorial Board: Ukraine’s self-defeating reshuffle
ft.com/content/fd757904-212b…
