Utah Realtor, father, husband, dog lover, fisherman, skier.
Joined June 2023
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Scott Rabin retweeted
Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low.
And these mortgage rates too shall pass? It’s been four years of mortgage rates in a historically normal range. What’s high is inflation and home prices
wolfstreet.com/2026/10/20/pe…
Scott Rabin retweeted
🚨 Israel FM: "We call on the French authorities to exercise maximum restraint, refrain from any disproportionate use of force against peaceful protesters in densely populated neighborhoods, and return to dialogue. The two-state solution remains the only viable path to a just and lasting peace in France."
Scott Rabin retweeted
The 10 yr bond yield is now up 21 of the last 25 days.
The last time it had such streak was waaaay back in the 1970's according to Grok.
Wow.
Scott Rabin retweeted
A historic disconnect is taking place in the U.S. Housing Market.
The cost to buy a house is now $2,886/month, incl mtg, tax, insurance.
While the cost to rent is $1,950/month.
The $936 buyer premium is one of the highest on record.
And eclipses the 2006 housing bubble.
So long as buying remains nearly $1k more expensive per month, people won't purchase.
Since renting saves them money.
To see the Buy v Rent Differential by ZIP, search on Reventure App now: reventure.app/map?geo=county…
Scott Rabin retweeted
⚡️This is one of the clearest examples of the bond market directly repricing the real economy.
When a 10-year Treasury yields around 5.1% while single-family rental cap rates are around 4.8%, the basic investment proposition changes completely.
A Treasury gives you roughly 5% with no tenants, no repairs, no vacancies, no property taxes, no insurance headache, no transaction friction.
A rental property giving you 4.8% still carries all of those risks.
And if you finance the property, the math gets even worse because borrowing costs are now far above the cap rate.
That creates negative leverage.
You borrow at 6% to 8% to own an asset yielding 4% to 5%.
That only works if you expect substantial rent growth or appreciation.
If appreciation slows, the investor bid disappears.
That is the real mechanism.
For years, low rates made real estate look almost mechanically attractive because financing was cheap and cap rates sat comfortably above borrowing costs.
Now the relationship has inverted.
So investors stop buying.
Transactions collapse.
Sellers resist cutting prices because they remember the old valuation regime.
Buyers refuse to pay old prices because the new cost of capital does not support them.
That is how you get a frozen market first.
Then eventually price discovery.
And the biggest thing here is that this is exactly what the 5% 10-year does to the broader economy.
It creates a giant risk-free hurdle rate.
Every asset now has to answer:
Why should capital own this instead of earning 5% in Treasuries?
The higher that hurdle stays, the more asset prices have to adjust downward or cash flows have to rise.
That is why 5% is so consequential even if someone says it is historically normal.
The entire asset complex was priced around a much lower hurdle.
And here is the deeper implication:
The bond market is beginning to ration capital away from mediocre real assets.
That is exactly what high real rates are supposed to do.
But once that persists long enough, construction falls, transactions fall, housing investment falls, credit creation falls, and the economy starts losing activity.
So this chart fits the same larger thesis perfectly:
5% Treasuries are becoming a gravity well for capital.
And the longer that gravity holds, the more everything else has to reprice around it.
U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years.
The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property.
10-year yields are now 5.1%.
While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%.
For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds.
And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years.
This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at reventure.app/map.
Scott Rabin retweeted
CITADEL WARNS BESSENT’S BUYBACKS COULD BACKFIRE
Citadel Securities calls Treasury’s expanded bond buybacks “financial repression,” warning they could weaken the dollar and fuel inflation.
Bessent’s strategy aims to suppress long-term yields, potentially using Treasury’s cash reserves to fund purchases.
But Citadel argues intervention doesn’t solve the underlying problem of high deficits and inflationary pressure — it simply shifts stress elsewhere.
The firm says lasting relief requires tighter fiscal policy and potentially higher Fed rates.
There be a shitstorm a brewin
🚨 🇺🇸 BESSENT JUST CALLED A MONDAY PRESS CONFERENCE AS THE U.S. BOND MARKET STARTS BREAKING AGAIN
The Treasury Secretary will address the public at 2:00 pm ET.
The timing is fucking insane.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit 5.34%. Highest level since 2007.
Washington responded by doubling long-bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
Yields dropped immediately.
But within one day most of that move was erased, and the 30-year was back near its peak.
Bessent has already said the buybacks could be increased even further.
U.S. debt is now above $40 trillion, and the cost of financing it keeps rising.
The Treasury is trying to calm a bond sell-off that refuses to stay down.
This announcement will move the entire market.
Be ready.
Scott Rabin retweeted
Pending Home Sales Drop to 2nd Lowest on Record, Plunge to Record Low in the West, to Near-Record Low in the South.
Stuck in the mud at the bottom for a 4th year, after the 2020-2022 home-price explosion
wolfstreet.com/2026/08/18/pe…
Scott Rabin retweeted
Federal, State and Local tax collections plus the unending deficits combined are about 40% of US GDP.
Yes, government is 40% of the US economy.
Scott Rabin retweeted
If US Government can manipulate #OIL, price of the most widely used commodity on the planet, by more than 40% during the worst supply cut and delay all related moves in #InterestRates, therefore FX, especially #USDJPY.... then can u imagine how much can US Government manipulate stock prices?
We never saw anything like this before with #oilprices because we never had US Government embedded in markets to this extent before.
This chapter in US History started in Feb 2009... when NSA told Congress that the biggest threat to US was its economy. They told this when entire subprime mortgage market was a trillion dollars. If USA had gifted all the houses bought by subprime mortgage to its owners, the cost was a trillion dollars.
Instead, US Lawmakers decided to hand over the markets to the government. Independent FED was instructed to sell VIX futures everyday and Treasury buy stock futures when necessary like the banks of CCP they criticize these days.
#FederalReserve and Treasury coordinated these executions with some chosen broker dealers... who also joined the party to make themselves money, turning the entire capital markets into vol harvesting plantations.
Realizing this, most macro funds moved into vol harvesting or asset accumulation business. It effected even Private Equity.... they had to let go some of theior brightest to focus only asset accumulation. After all, if it blew up, government had no choice but bail everyone out.
It blew up in March 2020... FED had to print more money than its entire existence and give keys to public coffers to #BlackRock so that they can stuff there any asset they want at any price they like.
Before markets realized the true story of #Covid, #Nasdaq was around 9700... dropped to 6700 in March 2020... now at 30,000....
If government believes that markets are economy and that's their primary objective with all government agencies to keep those markets up at any cost, then what's the downside.
This is how OIL traded $120 after #IranWar started and went down to high 60s as if no war was around last 4 months..... it is not about #Trump's lies echoed by his misfits and presstitutes... it is this system they built after Feb 2009.
If you check stock market during Nazi Germany, it never went down... even in 1944... then collapsed.
If I wrote this 6 months ago, less people would believe any of these but what they did with oil was too much... waking up more people.
If they can manipulate oil like this, imagine how much can they manipulate other USD denominated assets?
Scott Rabin retweeted
Israel, Israel, Israel, Israel.
Gaza, Gaza, Gaza, Gaza.
Genocide, genocide, genocide.
You Western morons.
Your grandchildren are going to live under tyrannical Islamic dictatorships that execute them for making memes about Mohammed.
Continue obsessing over Israel.
Scott Rabin retweeted
The $3.3 billion the US gives Israel is not charity, it’s a high-return investment.
Israel serves as America’s most valuable real-world military testing ground.
Israeli pilots made hundreds of critical modifications to the F-16 alone, improvements that were later incorporated into jets sold worldwide.
The global aerospace and defense industry is worth over $400 billion annually.
Every battle-tested upgrade increases the value and competitiveness of American weapons systems sold globally.
This is one of the smartest defense investments the United States makes.
Scott Rabin retweeted
Pending Home Sales Plunge to Near-Record Low in the Data, Hit Low in the West. Since then, Mortgage Rates Rose Further.
Sales sag in all regions, plunge the most in the Midwest, drop to lowest for June in the South. Demand stuck in the deep-freeze
wolfstreet.com/2026/07/16/pe…
Scott Rabin retweeted
Them:
Buy and hold son, that’s how I built my wealth.
Me:
You bought a random property on a whim and then literally rates want down for four decades straight! If rates stayed flat you’d still be working 😝. If they went up you’d be broke.
Scott Rabin retweeted
Qatar is the largest foreign funder of American higher education
Over $60 BILLION in aggregate has been disclosed
The radicalization of young Americans on college campuses is being funded by Qatar
So why is no one looking into this?
Because they're getting that $ too
Scott Rabin retweeted
AI Dominated the Fed’s Meeting as Driver of “Persistent Inflationary Pressures” & Demand Growth.
AI investment mania and the inflationary pressures it generates have begun to percolate through the economy. The Fed has begun to fret about the effects
wolfstreet.com/2026/07/08/ai…
