A public diary to upload my stream of consciousness.
Milky Way
Joined February 2011
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That’s a high risk, high reward game that Jensen, as an operator, played and was rewarded for, but then he played a bad hand.
That’s how it goes when you play high-stakes gambling with higher risk tolerance!
If a CEO hypothetically wanted to make his departure maximally painful for the company he would have:
No successor, no COO, no president besides himself, dozens of direct reports, no 1:1 coaching for any of them, a cult of personality, and all key company contacts as his personal relationships
This is going to be tough
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During the earnings call, I got curious to learn more about their CFO, Colette Kress, who joined NVIDIA in 2013 and became a billionaire in 2025.
No Ivy League MBA; she just went to some non-fancy Methodist university in Dallas.
Absolutely insane.
Nvidia, $NVDA, just guided $108 BILLION in revenue for Q3 alone.
And, this guidance assumes ZERO data center compute revenue from China.
This builds on the record $96.2 billion in revenue posted for last quarter for a projected total of $204.2 billion in 6 months.
We now have a $5+ trillion company is seeing +106% year-over-year revenue growth.
There has never been anything like what we are seeing right now with AI.
This is arguably the biggest technological revolution of all time.
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You drive down the risk-to-reward ratio, and society stops taking risks, leading to technological stagnation.
I don’t think we are at that point yet. But populist rhetoric can push us toward a low to NO risk taking space if incentives are negligible.
88% of venture-backed startup founders walk away with nothing, according to a study of nearly 250,000 founders.
Researchers from Wharton and the University of Zurich analyzed 157,669 US startups and 248,454 founders from 1987 to 2025.
The top 1% of startups captured 79% of all value at exit
The 12% of founders who did get paid received a median of $4.8 million after taxes
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The joy of winning in sports is unmatched by professional or financial accomplishments, no matter your age!
Playing sports intensely in childhood and continuing once a week as an adult is a great hack for mental and physical health that most adults fail to do because they let other things in life take over!
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Incredible feat by the team. Onwards and upwards!
TPUs can be a juggernaut of a product in the coming years if adoption among the builders/dev community continues to grow.
Thrilled to share a big milestone from our AI & Infrastructure team at @Google.
Today we’re expanding our 8th generation TPU portfolio with:
• TPU 8i Max: Built for massive context windows and the highest compute density per rack
• TPU 8tx: Purpose-built for secure, confidential inference
This marks the first time we’ve introduced four distinct TPU systems in a single generation, in one year.
For developers, hardware is only as good as the software stack. And we want you to be able to build with TPUs as easily and efficiently as we do at Google. You can now:
↳ Run native PyTorch & Hugging Face models via TorchTPU (zero code rewrites)
↳ Cut KV transfer latency >90% with open-source TPU Sync
↳ Eliminate idle compute waste with Agent Compute Engine
Read more about our newest TPUs on our blog: bit.ly/3VfETPR
I look forward to connecting with builders, researchers, engineers and organizations pushing the boundaries of AI and computing!
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I’m always in awe of Peter Thiel’s mind. There’s never an interview of his where I don’t come out learning something new about the world around us.
He always sees the forest for the trees. Many knew what the midterm results would be - but his ability to articulate what follows, leading up to the next ’28 election, is more interesting!
Peter Thiel on what happens if there’s a blue tsunami in the midterms:
“I think the Democrats will do well enough in the midterms, in a month and a half, that they will be indifferent to a center-left vs. far-left presidential candidate.”
Via Mathias Döpfner
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And we will overshoot on both sides of that narrative, because extremism is the new normal.
There is never any balanced or middle ground. Sigh 😞!
AI hyperbole has consequences. "AI will take 50% of jobs" & "AI will cure cancer" are both overstatements. The positive overstatement promotes investor excitement, & the negative fear in citizens.
Combination is dangerous concoction driving a simultaneous bubble & revolution.
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Gina is leading, and Abbott might lose the TX governor race. Blocking AI data center buildout and TX power supply could trigger more market selloffs and a recession.
One can hope they might reverse course & allow the buildout if they see the profits/employment it will bring.
Roughly 1/4 of U.S. data-center capacity projected to come online by 2030 is in Texas. If the state's next governor is Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who supports a moratorium, some 13.3 gigawatts of announced projects would be at risk, Jefferies projects. wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-r…
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We want to clarify what we announced today about our education services. Today’s announcements give schools more choice, not less. Here’s what we announced:
- Gemini, Gemini Notebook, and Search will be OFF 🔴 by default. This is based on K-12 schools asking for more control over student use of AI services.
- Schools are in control: They can choose to turn ON 🟢 one, two, or all of these services individually.
- We are also updating Search for schools to make it better for learning. Specifically, AI Mode and AI Overviews will offer step-by-step guided learning through problems, so that students don’t get quick answers to schoolwork.
We know there’s concern about students using AI to shortcut schoolwork, and schools have told us they want control. That’s exactly why we are making these changes today to address the feedback we’ve heard from educators in recent months. And we’ll continue to engage deeply with educators to ensure we are giving schools more choice, more controls, and improved Search for learning.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Gemini, Gemini Notebook, and Search are off by default for K-12 student accounts. Schools can choose which to enable. However, Google says Search and AI are deeply integrated. Schools that disable AI will not have access to Search. arstechnica.com/ai/2026/11/goo… bloomberg.com/news/articles/… forbes.com/sites/danfitzp…
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Trying to acquire a new non-AI/SI skill of barista making!
Bought a new machine that grinds coffee beans 🫘, but I still need to put in effort to get the right coffee and milk texture for Cortado, cappuccino, or latte.
Not there yet, I need more guinea pigs to try my latte art.
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Once upon a time, two gangs existed:
1) Not enough compute; supply can’t meet demand → Jensen, Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, Elon, etc.
2) More supply and infrastructure than demand, or a concentrated AI bet might prick the bubble → Bill Gurley, Ken Griffith, Chamath, Ray Dalio, etc.
Both may be right at different times; it’s all about timing. Just like anything else in life. :)
Ken Griffin of Citadel questions the economics of the AI infrastructure boom:
›What happens when GPU supply exceeds demand & pricing goes into free fall?
›Are today's semiconductor margins sustainable? Are investors overestimating the useful life of GPUs?
“Look, I think this market is actually experiencing people doing research.
For the couple of years, if you were on the thematic program of we're gonna spend hundreds of billions or a trillion dollars in data centers, we're gonna build compute at a scale never seen before, which companies in that story are choke points in supply chains that will have abnormally high margins? And who will be the big winners in this transformation?
Will it be the Microsofts & AWSs who will be the gatekeepers to the foundational models? Like, who's going to earn the economic rents?
But in some sense, like, 'I'm just gonna buy them all. I'm gonna buy the hyperscalers, I'm gonna buy the chip, I'm gonna buy businesses that make things I've never even heard of 5 years ago in Korea and Taiwan & in Japan.'
And now we're reaching a point where people are becoming more discerning.
We do realize that we are seeing extremely high margins in DRAM & MLCCs in areas where there are real supply constraints, but people are now starting to look out 2 years, 3 years. How long is this going to last?
And in particular, I don't wanna be doom & gloom, but GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run.
The incremental seat on an airline that's not full, if you can sell that ticket for $20, you're making money in that seat.
And that's one of the reasons that the airline industry is such a nightmare, is because the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into free fall.
We saw this actually with the telecom build-out back in 2000. We built more fiber than we had demand for, & the price of telecommunications just went straight down.
If we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into free fall.
And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today.
That's issue number one.
And issue number 2 is:
I think people are taking a step back & saying, 'What is the useful life of a GPU?'
Right here, right now, there's people that are earning extraordinary pricing on GPUs that are 5 or 6 years old.
And so there's a growing set of concerns that I can't give the same capitalization rate or the same revenue models to year 7, 8, 9 of a chip in the future that maybe I was using 12 months ago.
So I think we're really grappling with just how far will this demand carry us in the marketplace.”
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He picked his gang! I don’t know if there’s a middle ground anymore! You’re either this or that!
xitter.cf/saxena_puru/status/211…
Bubble pops when there is lack of demand, super tight monetary policy and excess supply.
With AI, we have very strong demand, supply bottlenecks, neutral monetary policy plus widespread fear of a bubble.
Place your chips wisely.
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It may take more time to achieve higher yields and economies of scale. The key point is they demonstrated it at a tiny scale, and it’s a matter of time before this significantly impacts the supply of gold or other rare earth materials and their relative prices.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
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The world's biggest chip by Cerebras's spiel might become more prevalent and blow up, addressing use cases when agentic AI/SI takes over!
When we started @cerebras, we knew we would have to solve difficult problems in yield, power, and cooling. What became clear was that making wafer-scale work would require rethinking almost the entire system.
Today, we answered questions from the community about those engineering decisions, how we run larger models, and what it takes to program the hardware.
2:15 Why hasn't NVIDIA gone wafer-scale?
4:10 How we build a working chip out of an imperfect wafer
8:07 What happens when a model won't fit on one wafer?
11:34 Why we chose SRAM over HBM
14:26 How much of a barrier is NVIDIA's CUDA moat?
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I was surprised that all Neo clouds combined will only have 11.2 GW in Y27, equivalent to Meta (11.2 GW), while all hyperscalers combined total 83 GW next year!
Two follow-ups on the power supply-demand analysis (thanks for all the feedback and DMs):
1/ There are several different ways to define and measure data center capacity (GW). It's important to distinguish between them:
A. Global total DC capacity: ~130 GW by YE2026, with annual additions of 30/50/70 GW in 2026/27/28E, based on SemiAnalysis estimates. [Chart in original post]
B. CSP + Neocloud capacity: ~63 GW by YE2026, with annual additions of 22/33/37 GW in 2026/27/28E, based on BofA estimates. [Chart below]
C. AI DC capacity: ~37 GW by YE2026, with annual additions of 19/43/35 GW in 2026/27/28E, based on SemiAnalysis estimates. [Chart below]
D. US total DC capacity: ~57 GW by YE2026, with annual additions of ~17/23 GW in subsequent years, based on Funda estimates. [Chart in original post]
2/ Global supply vs. where capacity actually gets built
Many agree that globally, ~50 GW of new DC capacity could come online in 2027, with the US contributing ~20 GW.
However, several people raised some important points that I 100% agree with:
A. National interests: The US historically accounted for ~70% of new DC capacity. There are strong national security and economic incentives to keep a larger share of future capacity onshore.
B. Latency: esp. on scale across training.
C. Data privacy
The distinction is between theoretical global supply and where capacity can realistically be deployed and utilized. The rest of the world may have enough power and development capacity to support the projected buildout, but geopolitical, economic and technical constraints could lead to a very different outcome.
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Reality is often stranger than fiction! Nathan Fielder is a genius who has pushed the envelope in documentary filmmaking!
I attended a screening in the valley where Theranos whistleblower Tyler Schultz appeared for a Q&A session.
I will never trust a fucking word that comes out of the mouth of @ElizabethHolmes - and “Billy”, if you can read this, the exact same applies to you. You Can See Everything (🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟) is a piece of Cinema that will last forever. Stunning. Shocking. Jaw-dropping. All I kept telling myself after the film was “I didn’t know you could do that…I didn’t know a documentary could do this.” Nath Fielder is a genius & a visionary. See this film immediately.
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