S@m

Mid-Week Macro The Fed raised rates today 25 bps on a unanimous vote. Just like Wall Street, they have lost their minds. Wall Street predicted with 90% confidence that they would raise rates. Consensus is that the economy can handle a rate hike, and the most severe current problem is inflation. It was easy for the Fed committee of 12 to follow the Wall Street consensus. Follow the herd, and no one gets hurt. I was shocked that not one voting member dissented. This was American hubris, believing that we have a strong economy. At his press conference, Warsh said the economy was strong. Is he out of his mind? Strong? That’s laughable. The economy is hanging on by a thread from the AI trade. Without that, we are in a recession. A recession is coming, and everyone is in denial. Not only is a recession coming, but the end of America. Yes, it’s that dire, and we are pretending the economy is strong. The non-farm payroll report has been atrocious for at least a year. Small business bankruptcies are up 65% year-on-year. If a professional loses their job, good luck finding a new one. The consumer is broke and can’t afford to put gas in their car. The housing market is frozen. Half of American families can’t pay their bills. And the economy is strong? Lol. We will look back on this Fed vote — after they begin cutting in the near future — and wonder what they were thinking. They bought into the Wall Street narrative that everything is fine because GDP is positive and earnings are high. However, if you take away AI-related stock earnings and the data center build-out, it’s a much different picture for the economy. We are literally praying that AI saves us. It won’t. I doubt we get to year-end before something breaks. In January, I said that 2026 would be the last year of American Greatness. I still believe that. I still think we will retest the 200 DMA on the S&P 500 before November, and that could be the trigger for our downfall. The 100 DMA is 7467, which is close. We could reach it this week. If the 100 DMA does not hold, then look out below. The next battle between gold and the S&P 500 will take place once the 200 DMA is reached. One of these times, gold is going to win. Got Gold?

Mid-Week Macro 1) The S&P has remained above 6000, but Wall St is starting to get nervous because the MAG-7 has become the LAG-7. Only Meta is up for the year. Without leadership from the MAG-7, it won't be easy for this market to go higher. 2) Gold remains on fire, with the spot price currently at $2907. The TA guys think that the gold miners are going to break out. They might be right. Barrick reported today with good numbers and pushed the HUI to 337. If we get above 350, then all that is left for confirmation is silver, which continues to lag at $32. I doubt that silver can get to $35 before the next correction comes (and thus the fake-out). 3) I expected February to be a good month for the S&P, gold, silver, and the miners. I continue to believe this is a fake-out and not a breakout, but if gold decides to lead, then it could be a breakout. That would be unprecedented, but the untenable US debt situation is starting to become apparent. 4) The CPI for January was released today. It was 3%, and higher than expected. It's almost as if gold has sniffed this out. Powell and the Fed are trapped. They want to fight inflation, but they can't contain it. Now a recession is coming, and they will have to abandon their inflation fight to focus on preventing an economic meltdown, which clearly will have a higher priority. Does it begin in March? Stay tuned.