In our report "The Missing Half: Women and India's growth challenge" we show that raising women's labour force participation rate is not just a social necessity but an economic imperative. The growth acceleration necessary for 'Viksit Bharat' may not be possible without a substantial rise in female labour force participation rates (FLFPR). To understand both the opportunity and the limits of policy, we place India within a longer global arc. India is currently near the bottom of the ‘U’ seen when countries are mapped on FLFPR vs. average incomes. India is climbing out of the bottom but not fast enough. We studied trends in advanced economies, where, over the past century, women have moved from the economic periphery to the core. Given the paucity of primary research on FLFPR in India, we also conducted a proprietary survey of around 11,000 college educated women across 42 Indian cities. In developed countries, demand for women's labour was addressed by shifts in demand (more services, removal of legal barriers and reduction in cultural bias) as well as its supply (household automation, education, out-of-home safety and reproductive control) . These would not have occurred without shifts in cultural norms, which were accelerated by war-time mobilization in WW2. Even high-income economies though continue to see gender gaps in pay later in careers, mostly attributable to the ‘motherhood penalty’. This structural lens helps understand India’s challenges. There has been substantial progress on the supply-side, like inputs that reduce time spent on household work: pucca houses, dense energy access (electrification, cooking gas) and piped water. Higher-education enrolment ratios for women, necessary to reduce the ‘marriage penalty’, are rising and are now mostly at par with men in most states. However, there are demand side constraints like too few accessible non-farm jobs (for men and women), fewer jobs in sectors that are globally women-dominated, and several remaining supply-side constraints like unpaid care, safety concerns, and social norms that suppress participation. For the cohort we surveyed (white-collar, English-speaking: at the top of the social pyramid), the survey reveals a clear transition to “Career AND Family”, and a shift in aspirations to viewing paid work as a career and as central to their identity, not merely a source of income. In this #opendialogue episode, @sameershetty29 and I discuss the key findings. youtu.be/RS4Wh6EkKmA (link to the report: research.axiscapital.co.in/R…)

In this #opendialogue @sameershetty29 and I discuss how markets are likely to be the catalyst for the end of the war in West Asia. That despite inventories 2nd/3rd order effects can force a significant global recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. youtu.be/J2bwW0z6v8w