Geopolitics strategist | EU-Asia Consultant @HKUniversity (European Programe)
Joined August 2009
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A sanctions regime imposed over a war ultimately faces one decisive test: whether it helps end it
For @ChinaUSFocus, I analyze how after 4 years & 21 packages against Russia, EU points to +economic costs without a corresponding change in Moscow’s conduct
chinausfocus.com/finance-eco…
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa retweeted
The reshaping of global trade as EU, China and US shift to enforcement s.nikkei.com/4hgcpN8
Trifurcation is the emerging global trade in which companies must operate under 3 overlapping legal orders (US, EU & China), whose rules conflict over exactly same transactions
For @NikkeiAsia I explain what #trifurcation means, operates, + where reaches
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/the-…
Did you know that China is conducting military drills in Africa?
With Mohamed Ibrahim Hafez, we examine for @SCMP_Opinion what is happening in Egypt, where Beijing has moved a combat force across continents to operate alongside a major Arab military.
scmp.com/opinion/china-opini…
Leading Chinese think tanks are emphasising growing NATO pressure on China. Recent developments point in the opposite direction
China disappeared from the last 2 summit declarations. Beijing was not mentioned once, ending a 7-year period
For @NikkeiAsia:
asia.nikkei.com/opinion/nato…
The EU has recast China as a long-term security threat, without telling the European public
The already ambiguous 2019 formula, China as partner, competitor and systemic rival, has now been subordinated to a security judgment
Analysis for @SCMP_Opinion
scmp.com/opinion/world-opini…
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa retweeted
Europe’s incoherent ‘China threat’ posture is a threat to itself, writes Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa (@s_contin). Until its governments own the choices that follow from their actions, Europe will keep diagnosing power while others decide its fate. scmp.com/opinion/world-opini…
Pleased to publish with IMD, top leading business school, alongside an outstanding group of geopolitics experts.
My debut piece defines "digital sovereignty". For all the attention the concept receives across Europe, EU still has no official definition
imd.org/ibyimd/geopolitics/d…
Digital sovereignty begins with 3 elements:
• capacity to freely choose diversified digital technology suppliers
• develop digital capabilities in line with national and EU needs
• regulate tech risks through evidence-based assessment rather than nationality-based exclusion
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa retweeted
“The search for the next instrument has become an alibi to avoid more uncomfortable conclusions. Europe keeps looking for a China solution to Europe’s malaise. It treats a competitiveness problem as a trade problem, an industrial problem as a regulatory one, and a technology gap as an external threat. Every new mechanism promises leverage over Beijing while diverting attention from weaknesses born at home.”
Europe’s current approach to China comes to life in this illustration.
Craig Stephens captured the central argument of my latest @SCMP_Opinion in a single image, long before the reader reaches the end.
Von der Leyen is repairing a fire alarm while...
scmp.com/opinion/world-opini…
Europe built an economic security framework to reduce vulnerabilities created by Chinese acquisitions. The architecture wanted to protect EU sovereignty from external ec. leverage
The Netherlands has now shown that this is no longer reserved for China...
chinausfocus.com/foreign-pol…
Europe’s current approach to China comes to life in this illustration.
Craig Stephens captured the central argument of my latest @SCMP_Opinion in a single image, long before the reader reaches the end.
Von der Leyen is repairing a fire alarm while...
scmp.com/opinion/world-opini…
“Years of confrontation have produced a fire-alarm system without resolving the question of where the fire is. 3 years into de-risking, nobody can show what has been de-risked. 7 years after declaring China a systemic rival, EU can't explain what that rivalry is meant to achieve
Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa retweeted
Hoy, casi exactamente 10 años después del referéndum, el sistema fagocita otro primer ministro.
Y este párrafo, doloroso para los anglófilos, aguanta
The Philippines is a “Republic of Departure”: only country in Asia whose most successful export is PEOPLE
Every year, +2 million Filipinos leave in search of a better life. The state celebrates it, their remittances are treated as a national achievement
asiatimes.com/2026/06/republ…
Across my conversations in Taiwan, one conviction surfaced with striking consistency:
“our mission is to make China believe that an attack would be catastrophic”.
For @ChinaUSFocus, I claim that Trump reduced the island to a geography problem:
chinausfocus.com/foreign-pol…
Trump’s visit to Xi carries unusual weight.
Liberation Day was aimed at China from the start, even though its shockwaves hit the entire global economy.
In my article for @ChinaUSFocus I analyze wider implications
#geopolitics
Credits @GettyImages
chinausfocus.com/finance-eco…
Most of the articles on the Iran war are written for the news cycle. This one was written for the geopolitical consequences.
That is why is aging well.
Selected as Quote of the Week by the publisher, @ChinaUSFocus.
chinausfocus.com/peace-secur…
