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Millions of young Indian investors skip mutual funds (MF) entirely, believing they can generate massive, consistent outperformance by day-trading weekly options (F&O) on the Nifty or Bank Nifty.
SEBI’s data is stark and unyielding: over 90% of individual traders in the F&O segment lose money, with the average loss running into lakhs. Retail traders are bringing human emotion and basic charts to a highly leveraged game dominated by institutional algorithmic setups and high-frequency trading desks.
They treat trading like a lottery. A few early wins create an illusion of skill, causing them to scale up their capital. When a single volatile market gap-up or gap-down wipes out their entire trading account, they realize too late that they didn't just fail to beat the index—they lost the core principal required to invest in it.
In contrast, the average investors MF portfolio on @Kuvera_In is at ~11% XIRR, almost 4-5% more than FDs post-tax. Long term compounding and punting have very different outcomes. Choose wisely.
Real life mimics the crude economist joke 🤦
Two economists walk through the woods and find a pile of feces. The first pays the second $100 to eat it. Later, they find a second pile, and the second economist pays the first $100 back to eat that one. Realizing they both broke even, one says, "We just grew the GDP by $200!"
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
RT @jootawaala: No. 14 is now live on the website. Be one of the fifty to get it.
RT to show support. ❤️
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
One sentence macro model: On the way out the door, every farmer's wife says to every farmer, "the weather's looking bad so don't buy as much at the market this week, but also don't sell our crops for less than the usual price."
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
India has more Restrictive Labor Law than Germany! marginalrevolution.com/margi…
Nifty 500 is clearly a buy here. But it will be a generational buying oportunity if and when the fourth leg turns.
Valuations are cheap ✅
Commentary is turning against owning stocks ✅
FIIs are selling ✅
Retail is selling (net SIP indicator) ❌
If you still think STT and STCG / LTCG relief is in the works…
Milton Friedman:
“In the long run, government will spend whatever the tax system will raise, plus as much more as it can get away with. That’s what history tells us.”
“So my view has always been: cut taxes on any occasion, for any reason, in any way that’s politically feasible, as the only way to keep down the size of government.”
If there has ever been the opportunity to short a $50 billion stock to bankruptcy, it’s now with $CRWV
Very few people ever get the chance. Most only ever caught the end. Only a handful of these gems ever existed. CoreWeave is a gift from God.
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
HODLer psychology. It’s not that there’s anything wrong with Alibaba. But when there are so many bulls and the stock barely budges, you know that there’s something wrong with the thesis. I feel the same way about many China e-commerce names.
$BABA is getting ready to SKYROCKET.
One day, people will look back at these prices and regret not buying Alibaba when they had the chance. The market is giving investors an opportunity that might not last forever.
Stay patient. Stay bullish. 📈🇨🇳
The only car I ever owned was an Alfa. They know how to style a car.
A future of boxy, utilitarian self-driving pods means a lot of beauty goes with it.
Creative destruction at warp speed. Token volumes keep hitting new highs while spend falls. The unit price of AI is collapsing faster than usage can grow.
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
As an African, I have to respect India's unity and resolve, it’s truly inspiring.
Elon realized he couldn’t bully a sovereign giant, and immediately shifted his attention to meddling in Ukraine.
A foreign tech billionaire who holds no official government post can try to sway elections and dictate leadership in other countries. Imagine that!! But definitely not India
Gaurav Rastogi retweeted
i think the best drama ads are the ones where people can actually see themselves in the scenario.
you’re essentially letting someone experience a version of themselves they secretly want to become.
a lifestyle, a personality trait, or a behavior they wish they had in real life.
there’s so much psychology to play with here.
you don’t need to copy whatever brand is printing right now to find winners.
i’d actually argue that’s usually the worse approach.
understand your demographic, what they aspire to do/be, how they want to be perceived, and get creative around that.
each age demographic & ethnic background has their own desires and aspirations also.
that in itself should provide you with enough creative diversity.
also, come up with the concept yourself before you start briefing AI on the script.
the idea should come from you. AI should just help you bring it to life.
i don’t think i’m the best at any of this, i’ve just spent a lot of time trying to understand what makes people tick and why they buy.
and i think that’s a big part of why my creatives have been performing so well for brands.
unfortunately I’m unable to post most of them here.


























