former CBOE/CME options MM | on-chain settlement for the win | building AMMs @oddsfi | taking event markets from 0 to 💯 @100sEvents | fair, lit markets for all

Chicago
Joined December 2008
Rob Levy retweeted
a fascinating read. important for some of the binary microstructure we’re all nooding around. Rob is a highly experienced trader, so he knows his chops. and thank you for citng my working paper within the work! honored.
For fifty years, options have traded above the risk that actually shows up. Implied over realized, year after year. Finance calls the gap the variance risk premium (VRP): what option sellers get paid for the times realized blows right through implied. I spent years on the floors of the Cboe and CME collecting that premium, and occasionally getting run over by the reason it exists. Event contracts are the same trade in a purer form. A binary pays $1 or $0 on a state of the world, and nothing else. The size of the move doesn't matter, only whether it happens. These contracts trade on lit order books every day now, at size, and the price doesn't sit right at the probability of the event. That wedge needed a name. The State Risk Premium. The paper defines it, decomposes it, lays out how to measure it. It's a first draft, posted like a market: priced where I see it, ready to be hit or lifted. StateRiskPremium.com Thoughts, comments, discussion welcome. I've been building. More soon.
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For fifty years, options have traded above the risk that actually shows up. Implied over realized, year after year. Finance calls the gap the variance risk premium (VRP): what option sellers get paid for the times realized blows right through implied. I spent years on the floors of the Cboe and CME collecting that premium, and occasionally getting run over by the reason it exists. Event contracts are the same trade in a purer form. A binary pays $1 or $0 on a state of the world, and nothing else. The size of the move doesn't matter, only whether it happens. These contracts trade on lit order books every day now, at size, and the price doesn't sit right at the probability of the event. That wedge needed a name. The State Risk Premium. The paper defines it, decomposes it, lays out how to measure it. It's a first draft, posted like a market: priced where I see it, ready to be hit or lifted. StateRiskPremium.com Thoughts, comments, discussion welcome. I've been building. More soon.
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the pleasure's mine, and mutual. loved the conversation and i think we're just scratching the surface of where this goes. the event risk space is the most exciting place to be in markets rn, without a doubt.
Second time I’ve heard on a call that someone is citing my research for both trading and product design big shoutout to @robbylevy @DaedalusRsch and @shawpredicts. i truly am humbled time for a major rewrite soon, though.
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Claude is down…. again
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Rob Levy retweeted
Shayne wasn’t kidding. Seriously, the timing of Poly’s roll out into short-term up/down markets couldn’t be better. Love to see it. Some killer contributors building some very exciting twists to these “Hxro” markets on OddsFi. Close to release. $HXRO ~> $ODDS
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Claude: "This isn't working right now. You can try again later"
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Congrats B!
Took Meshflow Acquisition Corp public today, @Nasdaq $MESHU Actively seeking top operators & category-defining cos in infra, fintech, mission-critical sw to take public. Building something big? Tag your co or DM. In Abu Dhabi all wk meeting teams & eval opps.
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this explains why much of TradFi is making a full court press all at once to get their customers into crypto. even less likely ones like Vanguard allowing ETFs and Schwab to add native asset trading while most of CT has resigned itself to a bear market interesting
CLARITY ACT could pass within 2 weeks according to Senator Cynthia Lummis Once passed, I expect the floodgates of adoption to open. Financial institutions are quietly building behind the scenes and will waste no time onboarding their existing clients to Ethereum rails. 🚀
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Seeing signs of more and more alts that are not going down with every down tick in BTC. They’ve been beaten up enough and represent better r/r now. Would be exciting to see solid alts start popping off for real. BTC doesn’t feel like it’s out of the woods yet, but things could get interesting in alts
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Different flavor of “rugging” in prediction markets. It will hit different. Ackman with honest financial advice for Eric Adams.
.@JoeBiden convinced himself with the help of those who surrounded him that he could beat @realDonaldTrump in the election. It took a catastrophic debate for his believers to realize that Biden had no chance to win, but by then it was too late to put forth a viable candidate. The result has been an indelible stain on Biden, his family’s legacy, and his enablers. Biden’s name has not been uttered in months. He has become worse than irrelevant. @ericadamsfornyc Mayor Adams’ polls have only gotten worse since he announced his intention to run for reelection, and the betting sites show an even darker picture. And as we know, the betting sites have a much better track record in predicting the future than the polls. Polymarket now gives Eric a 1% chance of winning and offers a 70-1 payoff for those who want to place a bet on him. Polymarket gives @andrewcuomo a 15% chance to win and a 7-1 payoff for the win. Andrew’s odds improve dramatically if Eric drops out, and even more with @CurtisSliwa out. The experts I trust predict the odds shift to approximately 50/50 in a one-on-one Cuomo/Mandami election. If the field narrows soon, the odds get even better for Cuomo. If I were Eric Adams, I would look at myself in the mirror and ask myself whether I should continue to risk my reputation on a 1/100 moonshot when the alternative is taking the high road and doing what is best for NYC. I strongly believe that what is best for NYC — Eric stepping aside — is also what is best for Eric Adams. Eric should know that goodwill is a very valuable asset and the alternative is a very costly liability. Eric staying in the race is a disaster for New York City and a challenging future for him. I would not want to be the person responsible for handing control of the City to @ZohranKMamdani. The mirror does not lie. Eric, please take a close and hard look. And to fund your future, you could place a large bet on Andrew Cuomo and then announce your withdrawal from the race. There is no insider trading on Polymarket.
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1/ TGE related contracts for $WLFI were deployed over the weekend, including the vesting contract The deployer also tested adding USDC, USDT, and USD1 Uniswap V3 liquidity for WLFI
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Prediction markets aren’t just markets on outcomes, they’re another way to take leveraged views. Perps, options, event contracts… all give different payout curves, costs, and risks. The art is knowing which instrument gives you the best all-in odds for the move you expect. LFG
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Interesting. Observing. Monitoring
Its the south pole winter. July this year opposite last year, and something that has been unusual in polar winters the last 10 years, cold over the pole. Something is going on and its not co2. The only change is rapid drop off in geothermal. Coincidence I am sure
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I think @CryptoHayes should write a blurb in his next blog post about how we can own the tokenized, deflationary version of these billion dollar AI audio visual privates at a fraction of the market cap. Pricing feels juicy for a liquid token
Some of @CryptoHayes biggest longs have been spot on this cycle. $BTC $ENA $HYPE Will his AI coin $AVA $AVAAI (seed investment) reach similar success? Time will tell. Bookmark this for AI season.
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Whatever crime is going on in the $PIPPIN market on Binance and Bybit today is beyond crazy. -4300% funding rate across the board. Shorts of 1.3 billion tokens … supply is only 1B. Would love to see these folks get blown out.
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ELIZABETH WARREN JUST NOW ON CNBC: "Trump should not be calling for Powell to lower rates and say he wants him fired. This is hurting the nature of democracy and will ruin the stock market." Also Elizabeth Warren 8 months ago:
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Wait. Who actually did do this
ok... who did this Liberation Week special? @TheStalwart gets a shout out. RIP El Risitas... greatest laugh of all time. does anyone have the classic fintwit dub from 10 years ago?
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ok... who did this Liberation Week special? @TheStalwart gets a shout out. RIP El Risitas... greatest laugh of all time. does anyone have the classic fintwit dub from 10 years ago?
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FYI 10 Day realized vol on ES is currently 71
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Hey @Shaughnessy119 … you’re in luck, buddy. Set it and forget it.
Replying to @Shaughnessy119
That's a very good strategy indeed! returning 43% APR on a 4 year backtesting history, without leverage. From 10K$ USDT capital to 41k$. Less than 1 minute to set-up the strategy with our no-code @Runbot_io platform. tutorial video, backtesting results below!
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