@rob_lhi
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HW product managing. Liberty posting. High-tech x high-life writing at Happy Future: https://nitter.cf/t.co/G88uixwxvY
Joined February 2010
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New blog post: The New Artillery Shell Factory is a Dud. Following up on 155mm artillery shell production challenges, the new details about the UAPL in Mesquite, TX make for a great case study on risk-taking in the factory. roblh.substack.com/p/the-new…
I applaud the sentiment. I recently did a big electrification project at my house, including solar and a Powerwall 3. Having energy independence is great, VPPs are even better. It's great tech.
My only hesitation here is there is no substitute for lots of power.
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
There's a degrowther meme that making it easier to build new clean energy, mobility, etc.. doesn't work, because it just adds to the global energy pie. That the only thing that works is directly limiting the supply of fossil.
This is false on the merits, as Zeke explains with real data below.
It's also close to a practical impossibility, and politicially counterproductive:
1. Fossil supply (especially for oil and coal, a bit less so for gas) is effectively unlimited and geographically diverse, with much of it coming from countries that depend on it for their primary income. Stop oil drilling in the US, and you'll get more in other places. It's whack-a-mole.
2. The only lasting way to reduce emissions is to reduce *demand* for fossil fuels, by making clean energy, transport, and industry cheaper and better options. Scaling cleantech does this. Removing permitting barriers helps clean energy more than fossil energy.
3. If you put too many barriers in place for using fossil fuels, without making it possible to build clean alternatives, the price of energy goes up. Voters hate that. You get a backlash. Price of living is a much more politically salient issue than climate. I say this as a climate activists for the last 15 years.
The only scalable and lasting way to reduce fossil fuels emissions is to make the clean alternative, cheaper, better, and at least as easy to build.
Permitting reform in the US does that. If you want to win on climate, this is an essential.
Heard lots of claims like this. Utilities can only raise their own profits if they can raise their rate base. So they deny data center requests to pay out of their own pocket.
Google offered to pay for the data center infrastructure upgrades outright. The utility said no, because that wouldn't go into their rate base. They restructured it as a prepayment instead so they could rate base it anyway.
Result: everyone's bill went up $5.77 a month.
This poll shows Americans think growth is good, building heavy industry is good, yet growing electricity demand is bad (!)
Open the schools.
IMO it does show that electricity has an image problem. Highlights how important it is to keep emphasizing more electricity != more climate change. @JessePeltan and @ramez are leading the way.
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
will AI kill us in 10 years… buddy, the bond market is going to kill us next week.
I have flown United like 6-7 times this year on international and domestic flights and got status with them incidentally. Not once have I actually had Starlink on a flight. Get ready to be disappointed.
Our fast, free inflight Wi-Fi from Starlink is game-changing.
Now it's time for you to make a change.
We’ll match your hard-earned status when you switch to United now: united.com/switchtobetterwif…
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
This bipartisan permitting reform deal is so good
🚨 WE HAVE A PERMITTING DEAL🚨
And it is easily the best permitting bill we've ever gotten!
- The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is HUGE (400+ pages) and both sides got a LOT.
- The bill is much bigger and better than either Manchin post-IRA in 2022 or Manchin-Barrasso in 2024.
Once I finish reading the text I'll publish an explainer. For now, here are a few high level takeaways.
1. Transmission: The bill is absolutely HUGE for transmission, going further than Manchin-Barrasso. Includes: interregional transmission, limited federal backstop authority, interconnection queue reforms, directives for advanced grid-enhancing tech, and oversight of utilities. It's absolutely AMAZING all of this got in.
2. NEPA: The bill has BIG changes to NEPA, including fixes for judicial review that underpins the law's costs. Still reading but this is even better than I expected!
3. Certainty: The bill includes strong provisions to push back on misuse of permitting, like we're seeing with the admin's abuses against offshore wind.
4. Historic Preservation: The bill includes changes to the NHPA 106 process, including changes to judicial review that will help right-size the process.
5. Clean Water: The bill fixes problems with section 401 by adding new requirements for states and makes section 404 nationwide permits easier to comply with.
6. Geothermal: The bill includes big wins for geothermal, including parity with oil and gas catexs.
7. Mining: The bill fixes the "Rosemont decision"
8. Endangered Species: The bill creates a new path for states to take on endangered species consultation.
9. Hydro: Fixes for certain hydroelectric projects
10. Ratepayer protection: The bill adds protections for ratepayers from added data centers. Looks to be stronger than the House passed bill by quite a bit.
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🚨 WE HAVE A PERMITTING DEAL🚨
And it is easily the best permitting bill we've ever gotten!
- The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is HUGE (400+ pages) and both sides got a LOT.
- The bill is much bigger and better than either Manchin post-IRA in 2022 or Manchin-Barrasso in 2024.
Once I finish reading the text I'll publish an explainer. For now, here are a few high level takeaways.
1. Transmission: The bill is absolutely HUGE for transmission, going further than Manchin-Barrasso. Includes: interregional transmission, limited federal backstop authority, interconnection queue reforms, directives for advanced grid-enhancing tech, and oversight of utilities. It's absolutely AMAZING all of this got in.
2. NEPA: The bill has BIG changes to NEPA, including fixes for judicial review that underpins the law's costs. Still reading but this is even better than I expected!
3. Certainty: The bill includes strong provisions to push back on misuse of permitting, like we're seeing with the admin's abuses against offshore wind.
4. Historic Preservation: The bill includes changes to the NHPA 106 process, including changes to judicial review that will help right-size the process.
5. Clean Water: The bill fixes problems with section 401 by adding new requirements for states and makes section 404 nationwide permits easier to comply with.
6. Geothermal: The bill includes big wins for geothermal, including parity with oil and gas catexs.
7. Mining: The bill fixes the "Rosemont decision"
8. Endangered Species: The bill creates a new path for states to take on endangered species consultation.
9. Hydro: Fixes for certain hydroelectric projects
10. Ratepayer protection: The bill adds protections for ratepayers from added data centers. Looks to be stronger than the House passed bill by quite a bit.
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
if an AI company’s agent breaks out of the sandbox and does a cyberattack, you’d think you could sue the company for the damage this causes. It looks like…maybe you can’t??? It would be good to get an actual lawyer to confirm though.
sarahconstantin.substack.com…
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
A week later, I'm still thinking about NHJ's article on NYC schools. It was courageous but a huge missed opportunity to call for real reform.
She blames school choice, inequality, segregation, the wealthy and herself. But she seems reluctant to criticize the actors and policies implicated by the failures she documents, perhaps because those conclusions would be uncomfortable for many of her ideological allies.
- She describes absentee teachers, poor instruction, unresponsive administrators, and students who graduate without mastering the material. But she never calls for greater accountability at the district, school, principal, and teacher levels.
- She documents teachers failing to fulfill basic responsibilities but doesn't explore whether tenure and other employment protections allow chronic teacher absenteeism and poor performance to persist.
- She laments the concentration of disadvantaged students but doesn't consider whether NYCPS should consolidate under-enrolled schools, thus allowing more resources towards instruction and increasing socioeconomic diversity.
- She describes her daughter earning As in honors classes despite substantial gaps in her knowledge. Yet she doesn't consider the value of standardized testing as a check on grade inflation and identifying learning gaps before they compound.
- She describes how experienced teachers choose to work in better schools but doesn't salute the districts that have had “reform superintendents” like DC, Dallas, Denver, and Houston that have used cash bonuses to incentivize the best teachers to work in the most disadvantaged schools.
- She notes that eliminating homework harmed her daughter, but doesn't examine how the movement against homework is largely driven by equity advocates who argue that it can turn unequal home circumstances into unequal academic outcomes.
- She condemns school choice yet uses it to secure a better school fit for her daughter, without noting it’s the only realistic escape valve for families who can’t move or afford private school.
- She describes the “impossible balancing act” of teaching students at vastly different levels but doesn't explore how academic tracking can help students at both ends of the academic spectrum.
- She describes disruptive students who harm the classroom environment but doesn’t ask for stronger disciplinary actions to protect other students.
- She documents a school that lowered academic expectations in pursuit of equity but doesn't acknowledge how doing so perpetuates the very achievement gaps those policies seek to eliminate.
Hannah-Jones’ story was powerful. She supplied the evidence for a broad examination of why schools are failing disadvantaged students. It could have been the strongest call in a generation for urban school district reform.
Segregation and poverty are real obstacles. But they cannot become explanations that absolve everyone else of responsibility. We can’t wait to solve all societal issues before demanding higher performing schools.
Curious situation, because there are no details of drones being involved (yet).
What is known right now about the RAF Fairford Incident in order:
-Yesterday US intelligence lead to the threat level at RAF Fairford being raised to its maximum level an attack was expected.
-Last night around midnight three vans were seen driving toward the RAF Fairford base with 5 suspects inside, importantly these vans have falsified logos on them.
-Local residents quickly called police who deployed armed units to arrest all 5 suspects under the explosives act.
-American and British military deployed heavy patrols around the base as it lockdown continued.
-The area was evacuated and put on lockdown with 80+ houses being evacuated.
-Early in the morning British miltiary bomb squads arrived with robots to open the vehicles which were visually packed with black barrels this process has been ongoing since the morning with two of the the three vehicles currently opened.
-Police have now further arrested the 5 suspects on suspicions of commit an act of terrorism.
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
FPV drones owning the battlefield.... the end of an era,
FPV drones owning the battlefield was always going to be a short-term situation. The reason is straightforward: armored vehicles moving forward now carry enough electrical power and mounting space to field automated, optically guided kinetic anti-drone systems directly on the vehicle. These systems can be cued by early warning, so vehicles and their automated defenses know where incoming FPV drones are before they arrive. The drones themselves can be tracked optically and acoustically, picked up by the sound of their engines and motors, and with enough of these systems fielded, Third Corps has effectively mastered how to clear the sky of FPV drones in the area it's operating in, specifically the ground north of Lyman.
The reason so few FPV drones are being encountered in that area comes down to a deliberate, layered air defense concept. A .50 caliber machine gun has an effective range of roughly a thousand meters, which means each air defense gun protects a radius of about two thousand meters around itself. These systems can be vehicle-mounted, trailer-mounted, or pallet-mounted, simply dropped off at the front and daisy-chained together. With four, six, or twelve of them working in concert, they move forward one piece at a time, like pieces on a chessboard, always keeping overlapping fire and mutual support between systems. Combined with electronic warfare vehicles and other anti-drone systems moving forward alongside them, this is exactly what has let Third Corps advance into a large area while encountering relatively few FPV drones, whether radio-guided or fiber-optic guided.
We always knew this was coming. When large formations move forward with heavy vehicle density, combining kinetic anti-drone systems with electronic warfare sweeps the FPVs from the sky, and that's exactly what's being seen now. We saw an earlier version of this at the Battle of Kursk, where wide-spectrum jamming alone worked well for the first couple of days, until fiber-optic drones showed up and jamming alone stopped being enough. What's happening now is the second phase of that same evolution: jammers combined with kinetic air defense actually sweeping the skies clear of FPVs, rather than jamming alone trying to hold the line.
FPV drones will always have a place on the battlefield going forward, but they've always been fragile, and as long as they can be seen, they can be dealt with. What's re-emerging now, as a direct result of clearing the skies, is conventional tube artillery, finally able to do what it does best at long range again, without nearly as much fear of the FPV threat hanging over it.
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
>be hunter gatherer
>look at mountain
>"yeah it's beautiful"
>starve
>plant wheat instead of hunting and gathering
>wheat works
>too much wheat
>need somewhere to put wheat
>build granary
>need someone to count wheat
>invent writing
>need someone to guard wheat
>invent state
>need someone to trade wheat
>invent money
>money works better than wheat
>need somewhere to put money
>build bank
>bank lends money to guy with idea
>guy builds mill by the river
>mill needs 40 guys
>40 guys move next to mill
>40 guys need bread, beer, a church
>bakery, tavern, church move next to 40 guys
>another guy borrows for a second mill
>mill town
>mill town gets a port
>port town
>everyone within 200 miles hears there's money at the port
>everyone within 200 miles shows up
>run out space
>can't build out
>build up
>more
>skyscraper
>civilizational loop compounds
>order a private taxi for your burrito
Rob L'Heureux retweeted
For those of us who have been arguing for years that China's AI chip production is extremely constrained and Huawei lacks the capacity to fill China's domestic AI compute needs, much less sell to other countries, seeing the Huawei Chairman publicly admit this is very gratifying.