all you need is a magnifying glass building @hey_gambit || 馃帗 @gauntlet_xyz

Joined December 2023
[1] need a sink for PAPER to counteract the boundless inflation and value prop of PAPER -- trader activity compresses into those accepting the [high leverage x haircut] tradeoffs -- whereas before it also included those looking to acquire a strong yield generating token -- PAPER yield decreases quickly now since the supply is now grows to infinite -- previously the tapered supply and potential transferability significantly alleviated the bloat concerns -- should be some time until we get here [2] need an organic mechanism to self correct for OI imbalances -- essentially a "funding" equivalent -- i.e. trades that help neutralize one-sided house deltas get some benefit [receive funding] -- trades that expand deltas and add house risk get more haircut [pay funding] -- amplifies OI thresholding safeguards to probabilistically bound economic loss from manipulation -- so far the LP is too small, but as protocol grows can help with potentially opening up transferability in the future gl
A note on transferability. Papertrade is a complicated primitive, and managing it from a risk standpoint is a complicated problem. The PAPER token is far more integrated into the economics of the primitive than most tokens are in their respective protocols today, and, broadly, was designed to act as a counter insolvency incentive coupled with a rebate mechanism to losing traders. Market makers and exchanges are by far the two most profitable businesses in crypto, and our goal was to try and externalise as much of their margins back to users as possible. We are now just over a week into the life of papertrade and we are becoming increasingly confident that this is both possible, but also a likely outcome as agentic led software becomes the norm. As it stands, the paper token traded as a perp becomes a leveraged bet on bankroll solvency - and being able to short bankroll solvency materially changes the payoff curve of a manipulation attack. The target number goes from the bankroll, to the bankroll + short side exposure on paper. We can, and do limit bankroll size specifically to control this payoff curve and ensure it never becomes existentially problematic, but external perp markets are not something we would have any control over if left to float of their own accord. For example, if our bankroll is $10m, an attack costing $15m manipulating the price of bitcoin or ether is not viable. You simply lose money. If however you were also able to put on $10m of PAPER short side exposure, suddenly an attack costing $15m is very viable indeed. If we were to make the token transferable at this point, we are confident we would quickly enter a state too dangerous to allow any material exposure to be taken on papertrade, an end result that benefits no party beyond the wolves who have done the math on the short and are waiting in the wings with sharpened knives. We would also like to thank the various perps teams who have reached out about pre-market listings for their understanding and patience regarding this issue, and especially to the paragon team who, despite jumping the gun on us, have behaved with the utmost integrity and transparency once a dialogue was opened. Perps on PAPER will always act as a self-limiting exposure ceiling for a token with this type of utility, and we think it would be a shame to limit the growth of papertrade to the extent that allowing perps would necessitate. As such, at this juncture we do not have plans to allow off-contract token transferability. Structurally, papertrade is limited by the quality of the data it receives from hyperliquid, but we strongly believe that hyperliquid has a very large part to play in the future of global exchanges, and expect their books to continue to thicken and strengthen over time. A note on fees. Papertrade launched with a deadband fee from entry of 0.2bps. This means you don't earn anything until the price has moved by 0.002% in your favour. Over the months before launch, we played around with many different curves and fee structures affecting exclusively positions closed very close to entry price in order to try and devise a structure that removed the edge against the bankroll low time frame scalp bots have, whilst also minimally impacting the traders around which and for whom the product was devised. We were never able to find anything we were absolutely happy with and so decided to stay with the 0.2bp deadband fee through launch. This has however meant we have had to be very restrictive when it came to certain parameters, such as OI caps. Now, however, we have enough live data to fully understand exactly which strategies work, and to make the necessary changes to stop them. The changes we are making will have an on hours and off hours fee mode to account for the relative differences in liquidity the hyperliquid books see between these two time periods, and the ease with which low time frame moves are signalled. The changes we are making will only affect positions closed within 6bps of entry (0.06%) in on hours, and 10bps (0.1%) in off hours. Any trades closed above these threshold price shifts will see no change to their fees at all. On a look back to launch basis, these changes affect the profitability of bot strategies roughly 15x more than they do normal traders, for whom a very small proportion of overall winnings come from within this band. These changes should serve to flatten much of the edge our microfee structure necessarily creates on low time frames, and will help with long term exchange sustainability. This should hopefully allow us to open up parameters such as OI caps a little more so those of you who wish to can put on the size you want to, when you want to. It is possible these changes are still too lax, and that further revisions to this structure may be necessary going forwards. If so, we will notify users ahead of time. A note on paper tokenomics. In conjunction with the fee changes, we will also be implementing a change to the token issuance curve. Going forward, every $1 lost mints a fixed share of PAPER's supply at that moment, roughly 0.1% of supply per $1M lost (the exact number depends on the mint rate at the time the contracts are upgraded). PAPER minting in and near insolvency will also change, switching from a flat 100 per $1 of loss, to a time weighted multiplier on the curve growing over time, effectively acting as the house running a discounted auction on its own future cash flows. This change also removes the risk of the paper-mint-straddle-attack, temporarily pushing the protocol insolvent by closing only the winning side of a large straddle position and then attempting to mint as much paper as possible. In the immediate term these changes will only have a very subtle effect on PAPER minting, but in the long run will structurally change the outlook of the system beyond the first few weeks, serving to slowly dilute out older holders and leaving more recent users with an advantage. Reconstituting the PAPER system into something much closer to the exchange rakeback it was intended to be. We have been very reticent to touch this particular aspect of the system for obvious reasons, but ultimately we believe that these changes provide all users with the optionality to take a smaller piece of a potentially much larger pie than the current dynamic might necessarily allow. Other, miscellaneous notes. These contract upgrades will include a few other contract changes, including the addition of builder codes so that builders can utilise papertrade in whatever capacity they choose to. This will be a whitelist only to begin with and we will have more for you later in the week on where/how this will be rolled out. A small change to contract permissions on the reward distributor and a change on how below bust closes are processed by the exchange are also included, largely to block gas griefing attacks. These changes will be pushed to docs in full over the coming day, and we will further announce once the changes are queued into the timelock pending final security passes, scheduled to go live 24 hours after that point. Final note. We'd like to thank everyone that has tried out papertrade over the last 10 days. It has been a labour of love building this product and both of us have been taken aback at all of the positive feedback we have received. We'd also like to thank all those of you who have spent considerable time musing on the system we have built, and much of your advice has been taken onboard and will likely affect the colour of what papertrade becomes going forward. We know some of these changes will be unpopular with some, but we would not be making them if we did not feel them to be absolutely necessary. - blurr, jez
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walter retweeted
very weird action on hl, everything including nasdaq, ai stocks and crypto just spiked down 1-4% on seemingly no news?
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walter retweeted
seems the HL crowd doesn't believe the rumors ANTH still trading around 1.93T val quite a bit of juice left (~22%) to 1.5T if you believe the news to be true thin book so things could change quickly + ~4.3m liq down to 1500
ANTHROPIC鈥橲 IPO VALUATION EXPECTATIONS DROP FROM $2 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION Some investors are considering a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic鈥檚 upcoming IPO, down 25% from earlier expectations of $2 trillion. Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up 45% quarter-over-quarter, but growth slowed sharply after revenue more than doubled in Q2. The company also reported adjusted profitability for the quarter. The key concern: Slowing revenue growth and rising AI infrastructure costs could weigh on one of the most anticipated IPOs. Source: Reuters Exclusive
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statue pays for itself, ty dip buyers
breaking: dram investors erect a statue of heroic korean retail investors that bought the dip
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papertrade is more interesting on day 4 than day 0 -- more competing dynamics at play, now that inflation curve has slowed [1] market puking means house quickly replenishes deficits below 5m -- house is structurally short and stakers get paid well > until then hedge your PAPER exposure with some gigalongs [2] Oct 17 the LP equity will start to trend towards 10m -- currently thresholded at 5m due to 99% dist threshold > OI thresholds will likely increase as the LP trends up [3] how fast LP trends up is dependent on market volatility and demand for 1000x leverage > LP is a lot healthier, the house can withstand ~2-3% BTC move up while staying above the inflation, and probably 4-5% before going into debt
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walter retweeted
Attacker looks trapped in open positions with 450k margin, likely getting censored by the team at the relayer level
Paper trade @papertrade_xyz getting actively exploited by two wallets moving ETH 10-20bps on hyperliquid using $20m clips or so and trading 9 fig longs on paper. Glaring issue with the protocol as is, needs to be fixed ASAP for any chance at sustainability
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helpful to consider the change in house equity, relative to the market move house lost 2m after a 10bp move keep in mind house has difficult time accumulating beyond 5m due to the 99% rule - anything above 5m LP means trader losses get paid out to paper stakers the LP 5m cap should be variable based on the OI -- otherwise too much thrash in house equity
you could just open a $10m regular long on ETH and drain the house since its quoting bbo mid its all paper so ig fuck around and find out
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you could just open a $10m regular long on ETH and drain the house since its quoting bbo mid its all paper so ig fuck around and find out
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walter retweeted
putting the code out there if anyone wants to pick it up and work on it essentially a pooltogether + consistent reward loop mechanism for stonkfun tokens => I think the biggest "gap" in stonkfun tokens is that the rewards you get for holding is too small so you might as well have everyone pool their rewards and pick one person to give it to & stonkfun mech makes this pretty clean (designed so that you never stake or give away your stonk tokens to avoid that pesky 3% transfer fee) a small fee is taken for every pooled pot, which goes to buying more stonk tokens which get pooled back into the next pots (compounds over time) this was phase 1 of what I was thinking and there's a few more reflexive additions I was thinking of assuming the first part went well but this does fall under casino/lottery regulations which I didn't want to bother with happy to chat if someone wants to know the rest of what I was thinking if they want to work on this p.s. - I've never really coded solana contracts so may be some bugs, but did give it a loop on gpt sol, opus 5.5, astra, so probably not bad. frontend was iterated a few times so it's actually kinda nice, hope you like it
finished the proj, but due to some potential legal issues can鈥檛 make it public sad maybe I鈥檒l just opensource it in case some other team wants to take it on
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going to have to start baking in some sort of manipulatability premium on all these assets - is the oai 50b real? is the 70b real? or neither - what's the cheapest way to assuage forward looking constraints [i.e. loans] chop chop as reactionary capital is donated to market makers
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i.e. an estimate where agents will auto allocate capital flow when placed in the money path, cross how those destinations monetize said flow, at some present-future timepoint the key is to figure out the lag [if any] of the weights here
[ ZOOMER ] CITRINI RESEARCH PUBLISHES ARTICLE ON INTERSECTION BETWEEN AGENTIC AI AND CRYPTO, ALONGSIDE THEIR INVESTMENT BASKET: BLOG
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revisiting this since HIP4 -- especially its potential for nonlinear payoffs and overlap with options -- is in the spotlight again. so far we have - binary crypto / tradfi markets - fed markets - but sports markets OI dwarf the above -- both on seasonal and daily events the mathematical flexibility for HIP4 is highly complementary for hyperliquid's linear markets -- and it's clear that it makes much more sense for a perps platform to include pred markets, rather than the other way around - hard to find a reason for a casual monday night football punter to go 10x long BTC, whereas the reverse is more natural which means the most important problem to solve is UX for HIP4 -- to help users to discover a clear usecase for this class of contracts, beyond leverage and orthogonal to perps
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a brave soul bets that STX and WDC find their way back to their memory friends
Seagate cannot afford to let this fall into Toshiba鈥檚 hands under any circumstances. If Toshiba acquires it, it will see tremendous growth, just as Micron did after acquiring Elpida.
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show me the 17:50 traffic spike
Hyperliquid perps, live on the Terminal:
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ah yes throwback to the brazil etf basis days some good timestamps to note - bovespa futures open at 08:00 ET - brazil cash at 09:00 ET
Buy every Brazilian bank tomorrow morning. Thank me later.
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I see a world where this type of option wrapper products become more popular -- options chains are still too complex for the avg user to understand you can imagine the perp on this to reflect user behaviors that so far haven't been seen [especially on funding] good ticker choice too and allows for nice generalization
The Roundhill S&P 500 Target 10,000 2030 ETF $XX is launching today, which buys long dated call options targeting a strike price for SPX of 10,000 in Jan 2030. The idea being a way to provide long-term leverage to SPX without the vol drag from daily resetting.
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with 0xf2925 slowly twapping out of his shorts [that had been more than 2/3 of the OI at its peak] CXMT is finally trading rich 2 months after its IPO -- and will likely continue to be rich while the OI is dominated by one position -- thus ending one of the greatest continued discounts seen CXMT will be the jewel of the shanghai exch and will always see latent bids -- no stock connect means that perpdexes remain the only venue for offshore exposure for now season 2 of the funding game begins
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The Kospi鈥檚 like your college friend who used to blackout every weekend but now has like kids and a mortgage Buddy would鈥檝e been up at least 9% back in the day
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seeing this ZEC fury reminds me of the SNDK mania earlier in the summer same chart same levels same vibes
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ty linkedin glad you think we should be connected
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