Couldn't be prouder of being in the top 1% of traders on the Selfwealth app. It has taken many years to get here. Its a true reflection of not just hard work but some luck. Im well aware that when I buy a stock I have no idea if it's going to 10 bag or go down and hit my stop immediately. Unless you put yourself in the arena. You will never find out. It only takes 1 to take your year from mediocre to excellent. Have a process and trust it. Know when to hit the gas and when to step back.

Model Book - $TUA - Tuas Quite timely for today. There was a time to hold this stock, for sure. Very nice stock from the IPO. It pretty much held the lows of the IPO and managed to build from there. Had a huge 2-year cup and handle; once it worked its way out of that, it was game on. The volume on this stock was all over the place; really not much that I can gather from it. Huge spikes, then nothing. Didn't really build in heavy accumulation as I would expect from a move of this magnitude.

youtu.be/hYzX3YZoMrs?si=erN_… I love this clip. If you zoom out and take a bird's-eye view, it's crazy- the world we live in.

If you are betting on prediction markets for presidential elections. Understand that you are doing just that. A 20% gap up is about to be erased, and probably more. Could be a nice short setup. A very binary outcome. Akin to biotech phases.

$TUAS Just read my previous post below. I don't like seeing people lose money, but I assure you: IT CAN BE AVOIDED. You just got hunted again. 🎯 Of course, you can buy the dip again after a 90% drop and pray to the market gods that it comes back in the next decade. I keep saying it, and I have no affiliation, but just read 3 books and your chances of success in the stock market dramatically improve. Until then. You are playing in a casino where the house will always win. Stan Weinstein Mark Minervini William O'Neil How many more times does this need to happen before you say no more? It took me a long time. Never again.

AI is a commodity. To the average person, they all do the same thing with a different name on the tin. I wouldn't be surprised to see these businesses drop 90%+ and be swept up for cents on the dollar by the likes of the MAGs, with all the debt wiped out. In fact, this would be pretty normal. This will be the same for all the Neo clouds and all the high debt-ridden, overleveraged businesses. The market always finds a way to force the weak out, and the genuine value will be created by a select few. It doesn't matter what cycle it is. Lithium, REE, pick your poison. It's just another cycle. This is when the likes of sleepy, old, boring $APPL, which trades as a risk-off trade, go shopping. Let the others fight over themselves on their spending spree, falling on their own knife. How many cycles have we heard Berkshire has lost their touch? Then, all of a sudden, a year or 2 later, they are back at all-time highs, and everyone says how legendary they are. Rinse & repeat. Another recent example is the Leopald book being snapped up by Citadel. Too much leverage. Weak. No different to living in the wild. The weak get eaten. The real question is, where are we in the cycle? I still have a belief that we are not done. Why? Because Wall St. does NOT want that 90% drawdown from the misallocation of capital on their book. They want it in the hands of the average retail punter. Which, to me, means more IPO's coming. Anthropic (soon) and OpenAI next. When they are all listed and offloaded, there will probably be a grace period to draw more retail money in - pushing prices higher. One final thought. Ignore lockup periods for insiders; they mean nothing. Everyone obsesses about these; they are irrelevant. If you think a hedge fund or fund manager that has 5x their money and IPO'd a stock isn't going to hedge their position immediately on IPO, you are mistaken. Where do you think the "hedge" in hedge fund comes from?

Seasonality could be about to kick in. Just when sentiment is in the toilet. Have your shopping list ready, just in case.

There are some rumours circulating about the Anthropic IPO happening very soon. If markets were that bad, surely they aren't getting that IPO away? Valued at 1.5+ trillion dollars. OR maybe they aren't that bad, and we are now just conveniently making space for them? Just like we did for $SPCX. The market sells off 8%, which is equivalent to 2 trillion. Which was near enough to the $SPCX valuation. Markets need to make space for these Ai IPO's to fit. Is it a coincidence that all this money is exiting the Ai Trade? Looks to me like this could be happening precisely to make space for Anthropic... We will only find out in due course, but the people on the inside will already know.

I closed most of my shorts at the close today. The market is due for a bounce; there's no doubt. Whether it comes is another story. They have been all perfect trades and textbook shorts. Apart from bigger size after seeing market dislocations early enough, I can't complain. I was going to trail the final parts of the 10DEMA, but honestly, I'd rather reset going into the weekend and see if we can get a bounce to load up again. When the market drops like this, while yes it's weak, the bounces can be horrendous to sit through. All it takes is one night of rotation, and these all rip 15% in a day. $GNG $SXE $SKS I still hold $MU short but will likely cover some tonight.

51 Stocks in play to close the week RS>87 Price>50DEMA Price>200DEMA tradingview.com/watchlists/3…

A bear market isn't defined by 20% off highs. It's when great news can't drive prices higher, breakouts fail, and bad news crushes it. It's the exact opposite of a bull market. Bad news causes a 1 or 2-day pullback, shaking out the weak before resuming the trend. This can be applied to any sector, stock, commodity, etc. All these subtle signs show up on the charts every day. Markets can be timed, but you need to watch for the signals. Go through all the earnings of the semi and memory stocks. Record earnings, sold out for the next 3 years; can't build capacity quickly enough. Gap up on earnings, trapping everyone, then fail. Expectation broken. Sounds too simple, doesn't it? A bear market isnt a %; it's how things act on good or bad news.

If I told you last year we were going to go into a guaranteed energy bull market, and refiner margins would be at record levels. Performance year-to-date ASX $KAR +5.52% $BPT -21.06% $STO +44.49% - decent $WDS +36.88% - not bad $ALD +22.61% $VEA +35.61 US year-to-date $XOM +48.1% $CVX +48.73% $VLO +161.86% $DNO +165.45% $CLMT +148.21% $MPC +182.41% Refining ETF $CRAK +71.57% Energy ETF $FUEL +41.27% For a country that prides itself on digging dirt and kicking rocks, do we actually do a good job of it? When you can buy ETFs that outperform individual names without single-stock risk, why would you ever buy the stock? Has anyone got any answers to why this happens? This, by the way, isn't just energy; it happens in a lot of sector bull markets. Genuinely asking - Is it taxes? Lack of capital here in Australia to deploy? Just average companies in comparison to the US? I just picked an arbitrary date here for the calendar year - if I had put 3-year returns, you'd be crying in your morning coffee, but we are a little vulnerable right now, so I am being kind. The US seem to mint millionaires no matter the cycle; when you pick it right, you get rewarded. I get the impression we just pick up cents in front of a steamroller some of the time

Model Book - $MTM - Metallium Limited This stock was a recent X fave, with people buying the Stage 4 decline (the back side of the chart) becasue they saw "value" after the stock went from 2c to $1.48 and dropped down to 50c. The psychology in the stock market amazes me. Please read a few books on it and save your hard-earned $$$, recommend Stan Weinstein. A 70x return in 2 years was offered. We don't need to enter at 2c. That would be idiotic to me, but look at the chart and see where you could have entered, managed risk and how many times you could have made 50-200% on your money with a risk of a few %. I can see 3 or 4 entries where the chart tightened up beautifully and offered amazing R:R. It's another textbook example of why we must trail significant amounts of our positions. It looked extended multiple times but kept moving higher, refusing to break the 10 or the 20DEMA.

$MX1 - Micro X Ltd Big fan of this chart on the daily. Explosive on the biggest volume ever for the stock. Monthly and weekly oversupply is horrible. There are a lot of people suffering in there to work through. One to watch for sure. Reminds me of 4dx 👀

66 Stocks in play RS > 87 Price> 50DEMA Price>200DEMA tradingview.com/watchlists/3…

Word of warning, folks ⚠️ There's a difference between a bombing in a bull market and the market shrugging it off to where we are now. We are vulnerable here. Any bounce, to me, looks like a dead cat bounce and is still being sold into - distribution. The $XLP is about to test ATH's - I wrote about that here. xitter.cf/richreduk/status/21098… $SPCX had a good initial move last night and dragged $TSLA higher with it, which I would classify as "risk-on" sentiment, but the close was weak, and it closed lower than it opened.... Looks like a classic trap to me right now - when $TSLA reports today/tonight that the inverse will happen and they both go down. Correlation post here. Now Musk has pretty much confirmed this will be happening at some point. xitter.cf/richreduk/status/21027… Usually there's a saying in the market: "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy", and I'm usually all over that, BUT, I will be letting the tape confirm that first. Right now, it is not. Frankly, I am blown away by the timing; I expected this, but later on. Not now. Maybe they aren't in a rush and are just preparing, but Trump has a history of doing this over weekends, and I feel like there is a huge gap risk coming up for this weekend, so I will be extremely light going into it on the long side. Shorts I'll keep; they are performing well. No need to do anything. Because everyone craves a prediction, I've posted it here. Don't call me the Great Martis - I'm saying what I see.

Model Book - $DRO - Droneshield The biggest observation about Droneshield is that the 2nd major run came while the general market was suffering terribly. Very interesting. Yes, there were some deep pullbacks along the way that would have been hard to stomach at the time. B5 -35% that would have shaken me out, but it should have been bought back. It shows that a leader, even on a weak tape, doesn't mean you should sell everything and go fishing. When the leaders fail, you fish. Like now!

65 Stocks in play RS >87 Price > 50DEMA Price >200DEMA Getting thin! tradingview.com/watchlists/3…

ZL - Soybean oil The chart looks really nice if we are able to reclaim the range. Needs to do it quickly or the pattern is broken.

Day 497 in the 10% range. It took $CSL 2,131 days to break its topping pattern. So we are probably a quarter of the way there. See you in 2031-ish