Scribbler on culture, country stuff, egg-chasing. Eats/drinks for a living and it shows. Enjoy what you do, do what you enjoy

Edinburgh
Joined February 2009
Richard Bath retweeted
Can nobody in Glasgow fry food?? Why does a chippy need 7 foreign managers in 2025? Why did they use 29 visa certificates in 2025?
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This is why the Ukrainians will rightly never surrender.
“I saw hacksaws, chainsaws, axes, and machetes there. Everything was covered in blood.” Ukrainian military medic Yuriy Armash describes the terror inside Russian torture chambers. Ukrainian military medic Yuriy Armash spent more than a year in Russian captivity. Among other places, he was held in one of the most notorious torture facilities in the Kherson region, established by Russian occupiers inside a seized police station in Nova Kakhovka. There, he learned the stories of many people and witnessed how the Russians’ system of terror against local civilians operated. How Russians torture prisoners “The interrogations began on the very first day. They were conducted by the same FSB officers. During interrogations, they covered my face and handcuffed my hands behind my back. They asked where the weapons were, how many people were in our reconnaissance group, where our positions were, where we had come from, and what our mission was. They used an awl. They would pull the skin on my neck, pierce it, and leave the awl hanging there so I could feel it. Because I wasn’t telling them what they wanted to hear, since I couldn’t tell them something that didn’t exist, they started using a knife. They stabbed me in the leg. They would take a knife and press it into my upper leg until they felt the blade reach the bone. When the Russians realized they weren’t going to get an answer, they used a ‘Tapik,’ a military field telephone. They attached its wires to my ears and kept turning the crank, sending electric shocks through my body until I started screaming.” How Russian occupiers abused civilians “Starting April 20, they began taking me out to provide medical assistance to civilians who had been severely beaten by the Russians. I remember treating a woman who was about 40 years old in one of the two punishment cells in the basement. I bandaged her head because she had been beaten with a rubber baton. There were all kinds of injuries. They broke people’s legs. Men under the age of 35–40 were treated particularly brutally.” A room filled with blood-covered torture instruments “I never expected the level of brutality I witnessed after February 24. Although I had seen many things before that, I was honestly shocked. At the Nova Kakhovka police station, I entered rooms where I saw things that absolutely terrified me. I saw hacksaws, chainsaws, axes, and machetes. Everything was covered in blood. The room with the blood-covered torture instruments was on the second floor of the police station, in the left wing. It was just an ordinary office. But there were also more secret rooms in the building where they never even took me. At the police station, the occupiers also forcibly removed tattoos they didn’t like from the bodies of detained civilians. Some had their tattoos cut out with knives. Others had them burned off with potassium permanganate. Russian occupiers raped even children “When Buryats and Kalmyks were stationed at the police department, they frequently entered the cells of young women under the age of 25–30. They even sorted the women by age and placed them in separate cells. From time to time, women were taken out of their cells and brought to another wing. The young women were taken there at night and raped. When the Russians’ rotation was coming to an end, they sometimes entered the cells and raped the women right there. My cell was nearby. I could hear everything clearly… The worst case involved a 14-year-old girl whom the Russians were holding captive. She tried very hard to hide the fact that she had been raped. One day, when we were taken outside for a walk, I noticed that she was bleeding. I asked her what had happened. She didn’t want to answer. I asked, ‘Did Russian soldiers do this to you?’ She silently lowered her head. I assured her that no one except me would ever know about it. After that, she answered: ‘Yes.’”
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Richard Bath retweeted
The greatest intelligence failure in American history may not have been a foreign operation. It may have been America's inability to protect itself from its own president. For years, the evidence of Trump's extraordinary loyalty to Moscow has been mounting. His admiration for Putin, his attacks on NATO, his possession of highly classified American defence secrets, and his repeated willingness to advance Russian interests. Yet the most extraordinary part of this entire scandal is the American state itself. The FBI, the intelligence community, Congress and the entire national security apparatus have proved incapable of protecting the country from a president whose conduct has repeatedly raised profound questions about his loyalty. Russia spent decades trying to defeat the United States from the outside. Now Putin can watch an American president dismantle the Western order from within. And the institutions built to defend America have been unable to stop him. What an extraordinary national humiliation.
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Richard Bath retweeted
"You reduce crime by eliminating poverty." This is one of the greatest intellectual confusions of our century. It sounds compassionate. It feels obvious. And the moment you actually test it, it falls apart. Let's look at the data. First, the correlation is real. Nobody serious denies that poorer areas have more crime. In Sweden, kids from the poorest 20% of families are about 7 times more likely to be convicted of a violent crime than kids from the richest 20%. But correlation is not causation. So Swedish researchers did something brilliant: they compared siblings. Same parents, same home, same upbringing, but different family income at different points in their childhood, because parents' income moves over time. Result, on more than 500,000 children (Sariaslan et al., British Journal of Psychiatry, 2014): once you account for what's shared inside the family, the effect of income on violent crime goes from 7x to nothing. The hazard ratio drops to 0.95. No effect. Finland ran the same test on 650,000 people. Same result: the income-crime link disappears when you compare siblings. What predicts crime isn't the bank balance. It's what travels inside families. Second test: what happens when poverty spikes for everyone at once? 2008. US unemployment doubled from 5% to nearly 10%. 15% of Americans officially poor. If poverty creates crime, crime should have exploded. Instead it fell. Year after year. Robbery, the most "economic" crime of all, dropped 10% in 2010 alone. Criminologists literally said they were stumped. Same story in the Great Depression: 25% unemployment, and crime went down in many cities. Third test: take families out of poverty and see. The US government ran a randomized lottery called Moving to Opportunity. Thousands of families in public housing got vouchers to move to low-poverty neighborhoods. For boys, violent arrests dropped at first, property crime arrests went up, and over time the effects faded. New zip code. Same behavior. Fourth: the claim that police don't matter. This one is just false. Chalfin et al. (American Economic Review: Insights, 2022): each additional police officer prevents about 0.1 homicides. And per capita, the lives saved are twice as many among Black victims as among white victims. The people who suffer most from "police don't matter" are the poorest neighborhoods. So what does predict crime? The Dunedin study followed 1,000 children from birth to age 32. Self-control measured between ages 3 and 11 predicted adult criminal convictions, even after controlling for social class and IQ (Moffitt et al., PNAS, 2011). Cognitive ability matters too: across 700,000 Swedish men, lower cognitive scores at 18 track with violent convictions, and the link barely moves when you control for childhood socioeconomic status (Frisell et al., 2012). And here's the part nobody quotes: in Dunedin, kids whose self-control improved over time did better than predicted. Behavior can change. Which means responsibility is real. Why does this matter? Because "poverty creates crime" isn't just wrong. It's toxic. It turns criminals into victims. The man who robbed you becomes a symptom of "the system," and you, the real victim, become a footnote in someone else's narrative. It merges two completely different things. "You're poor, we'll help you" is one policy. "You're poor and you committed a crime, so we'll excuse you" is another. Fusing them insults the millions of poor people who work, raise their kids, and never hurt anyone. The vast majority of poor people are not criminals. That alone kills the theory. It removes responsibility. Build a political system on "your circumstances made you do it" and you destroy the one thing that actually changes behavior: the certainty that you own your choices. Every excuse the state manufactures is an incentive. And it feeds the state forever. If every crime is a social failure, every crime justifies a new program, a new budget, a new agency. Crime becomes the business model of bureaucracy. The alternative is simple and old. A lighter state that protects instead of explains. The same rules for everyone, from the projects or from a gated community. Certain, swift punishment for anyone who commits a crime. And never, ever telling someone their crime was written in their social condition. Treating someone as responsible is respecting them. Excusing someone because they're poor is the most condescending thing you can do to them.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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We’ve indulged this poison for far too long. If a dodgy tweet was enough to get Lucy Connolly two years, everyone involved here should 10+ years inside.
Not a factory. Not a protest outside a gate. Their homes. Their families’ cars. At night. A group calling itself “The List” has gone after defence workers’ homes in Fleet, Dunfermline and South Queensferry. Houses and cars were covered in red paint, tyres slashed, and “baby killers” sprayed on a garage. They boast of a “bank of addresses” built from hacking and leaks. “Quit your job, or risk a visit from The List.” If that’s not a threat, what is? Footage: The List, via Daily Mail
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⬇️ this 💯%
On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders. And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. Even the ones from wealthy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap. I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece. A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable. Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000. At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation. At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product. Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved. At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper. B. The mechanism: why it's systematic. When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient. In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work. The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in. C. Suffering demands a culprit. A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second. But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat. And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world? D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain. Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem. Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit? No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time. E. One lens, a thousand causes. And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them. F. The perfect inversion. Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second. It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene. G. The ballot box confirms it. In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease. In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state. H. The way out. These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target. The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture. That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.
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Read this powerful article by @thetimes , and reflect on what has been shared.. This is not just “persecution by (extremely clumsy) process” imposed upon active-duty SAS operators fighting to detain vicious ISIS thugs in an active war zone, but also an example of performative self-immolation initiated by the most senior UK Special Forces officer at the time (G Jenkins) as self-serving exercise in what HE calls ‘transparency’…… So, if someone, anyone (quite possibly an enemy) within an active war zone says the SAS killed an unarmed man, then the so-called ‘senior leaders’ (some, as in this case, with near-zero combat experience) within the Whitehall-based ‘UK system’ desperate to demonstrate something that they call ‘transparency’ (or whatever else floats the MOD’s boat), will automatically launch an aggressive RMP operation to detain the SAS men involved…. Not on the basis of any hard evidence (there is no crime scene, no bodies, no bullets etc), but purely on distant, uncorroborated hearsay and remote, delayed analysis of operational reports; all supported by desk-bound, chinless leaders that seemingly care more about how they will (personally) look in an MOD promotion board than trying to properly understand the circumstances faced by the SAS men and defend them accordingly. What a gift this utterly pathetic weakness, low threshold investigative process and twisted self-defeating system gives to our many enemies….and what an awful message it sends to those that still volunteer to fight on our all of our behalves….
🔺 EXCLUSIVE: How did a secret mission in Syria lead to a crisis within Britain’s special forces? Insight, The Sunday Times investigations team, can reveal the full story behind an SAS operation in Syria in 2022 — and its aftermath thetimes.com/uk/defence/arti…
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Richard Bath retweeted
Imagine if Europe, in the days after 9/11, had cleared its throat and announced: We have struck a tremendous deal with Osama bin Laden. We have lifted the sanctions on his organization, so he is now free to trade on the open market and bankroll his war against the United States. Bush must step down. The man has no cards. Has he even looked at his hand? But no. Europe did nothing of the sort. Europe did not sit down with a mass murderer and come home gushing about what a strong and reasonable fellow he turned out to be. Europe laced up its boots, flew to Afghanistan, stood shoulder to shoulder with the Americans and hunted that bearded wretch through every godforsaken mountain in the country, because that is what you do when a friend gets hit, and handing the attacker a shopping list while telling the victim to surrender is what you do when you have lost your mind.
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Richard Bath retweeted
Nearly two years of Donald Trump as the great negotiator between Russia and Ukraine, and what has it produced? Peace? No. A ceasefire? Not really. Mostly a fascinating collection of obscure side deals with Moscow while Russia continues bombing Ukraine. Then there is the Middle East, which Trump has left looking remarkably like one of his failed property developments: enormously expensive, half-finished, structurally questionable and surrounded by angry people asking who exactly thought this was a good idea. And then there is this photograph. Putin showing Trump his lovely little album devoted to Donald Trump. You can almost hear the pages turning. Donald in Helsinki. Donald smiling. Donald looking presidential. Somewhere around page twelve, one suspects, the last independent neuron in American foreign policy packed its suitcase and left. Since then, Washington has behaved less like the capital of an independent superpower and increasingly like a particularly wealthy client state with terrible taste in management. Do not be too embarrassed, America. Putin has experience with this sort of thing. Moscow has spent decades cultivating, coercing and controlling governments around its neighbourhood, from earlier governments in Ukraine to Chechnya and various authoritarian dependencies. The remarkable achievement is getting the United States onto the customer list. That is quite an upgrade.
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Zelensky speaking the truth. The US is now a Russian ally, and the Starlink decision is a massive benefit for the Russian military (and it has nothing to do with Ukraine attacking Russian refineries). The US is literally riding to Putin’s rescue.
BREAKING: Volodymyr Zelenskyy tells @piersmorgan he has been betrayed by Trump, that Elon Musk and the US deliberately cut off Starlink and people are being killed as a result “This is not the right side of history,” he says. “It is a pity that we are losing a strong partner” On Musk and Starlink he says: “This decision will bring a lot of human losses. Of course, people will die” “I am sure they knew what they did, absolutely. Because it was 1am at night, Starlink was blocked by SpaceX and the United States” “It’s not just about attack. It’s also about defending life. So people were killed because, not enough destroying, not enough interceptors, including interceptors with Starlink, which didn't work. Of course.” Asked if he’s angry with Musk, Zelenskyy says: “Yes, I think he is not right. It's a big mistake.”
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Well-known Ukrainian military aerial reconnaissance specialist Oleksandr "Serg Marco" Karpiuk writes on Facebook: "...Starlink is a civilian communications system. And SpaceX is responsible for its civilian use. Standard Starlink terminals currently have a default speed limit of 22 m/s. To enable flight at speeds above 22 m/s, Ukraine signed contracts for Starshield, which is overseen by the Pentagon. This is already a military system, with Starlink terminals that offer greater functionality, although the accounts are considerably more expensive. And it was the Pentagon that did two things in a single day: restricted intelligence sharing and changed the parameters of Starshield accounts. This was a decision by the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth. Clearly on Trump's orders...." Maybe this is the key to understanding what exactly happened.
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Richard Bath retweeted
European countries should, at all costs, stop buying American military hardware. Any capable or sensible political leadership should be throwing the kitchen sink at our own procurement capabilities.
More Ukrainian military confirming that Musk stopped Ukraine's drones mid-flight last night. This was exactly during Russia's massive missile and drone barrage on Kyiv. The US is fully joining Putin's war. From Sergei Flash:
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Cannot believe what I am reading this morning on taxi licences. This is not acceptable @GlasgowCC As a citizen of Glasgow using taxi services your elected members past and present have put us at great risk. A full investigation is required into who currently has Glasgow taxi licences. If elected members have no common sense and do not take on board @PoliceScotland intelligence advice on individuals then licences should ‘Only’ be approved by the police. #Scunnered #YouBet ⬇️
1/ Glasgow Licensing Board granted a taxi licence to Abbas Ahmad on 17 August 2022 despite serious objections from Police Scotland. Seven members voted unanimously to approve it. This is what happened.
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Richard Bath retweeted
The government is considering scrapping face to face citizens tests for migrants and spending £110 million of taxpayers money instead on an unsupervised online test. Brilliant. Now anyone can pass! Ai can answer the questions and thousands more none British people will be made erm … British. (Which is handy for the statistics)
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The Crown Office have been blocking the prosecution of Nicola Sturgeon and her allies for half a decade now. wingsoverscotland.com/and-ju…
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X should identify where each post comes from - when they briefly did we found out that hordes of Scots Nats are based in Iran and Russia
When Ukraine destroys Russian data centers, hoards of aggressive right-wing bots disappear, and Twitter becomes much friendlier. Isn’t that interesting? So much of our politics is driven by the internet, and so much of the internet is driven by Russians who want to hurt us. Shouldn’t we do something about that, given that we know it?
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Important piece
Angry but important - @HJoyceGender with wider thoughts higher education in the UK today following the Jason Arday affair. She and others were shocked to see some of what passes for scholarship today. (Also makes a reference to @CharlotteCGill ) ‘Arday’s plagiarism, and the poor quality of his individual work, are the least of what is so enraging about this story. The bigger problem is that he was part of a broader endeavour that made both him and others more stupid and useless. In a functioning market — one without government subsidies for useless qualifications and where the customers and end consumers’ interests were aligned — fields like the one Arday worked in would attract few or no students — perhaps the occasional eccentric with private means. Academia is supposed to be self-regulating, but the Arday affair shows that it really cannot be trusted. In a mawkish and condescending op-ed published in the Telegraph on August 19th, five days after Arday’s death, the vice-chancellor of Cambridge, Chris Smith, wrote: “Our former Senior Tutor at Pembroke College in Cambridge used to say in his speech to the incoming first-year students, on their first day: “You’re not here to learn to be clever; you’re here to learn to be kind.” We should all perhaps reflect on that message, in the aftermath of the tragedy of Jason Arday.” Honestly, what does he think Cambridge is — a pre-school? What does he think universities are for? Kindness is taught by example, and largely before children turn 18. And no institution can have more than one purpose. If they try to add another, they will inevitably lose sight of the original one and end up with none. For universities, that purpose is supposed to be the pursuit of knowledge, not “kindness”. Pursuing knowledge will sometimes be unkind. When academics who commit plagiarism and departments who appoint incompetents for base reasons such as politics are revealed in public and shamed, it will feel “unkind”. And more generally, free inquiry will sometimes turn up inconvenient, unwanted and actively hurtful truths. A university that thinks kindness is more important than those truths is not worthy of the name.’ open.substack.com/pub/helenj…
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Richard Bath retweeted
I spent 15+ years investigating Russian secret services and organized crime. I know people who served with Putin in the KGB and sat in on his deals with St. Petersburg crime bosses. So let me explain the "diesel deal" the way they would — in gangster slang. Because that's the language Putin actually thinks in. First, the facts. Putin just raised Russia's 2027 military budget by 27% to a record 17.1 trillion rubles — about $203 billion. Who budgets that kind of money for a war they're about to end? The FT reported yesterday that Western intelligence has warned the heads of European defense companies that Russia is plotting to assassinate them. Since September, Tusk, Macron and the intelligence services of Poland, Czechia, Latvia, Belgium, France and Denmark have all warned that Russian hybrid attacks — including drone and missile strikes — will intensify in the coming months. None of this looks like a country preparing for peace. Who actually benefits? 🇺🇸 What the US gets: Every serious analysis I've read says the announced volumes won't move American diesel prices. This is a PR move for Trump before the midterms — a story about prices that will "very, very soon" come down once his friend Vladimir's tankers reach US shores, plus the chance to claim he ended another war (I've lost count). The only US "benefit" is Trump's rating. 🇷🇺 What Russia gets: billions of dollars to keep funding its genocidal war against Ukrainians. Sanctions relief. A demonstration of power to the rest of the world. A deeper rift between the US and its European allies. And a real chance to disrupt US weapons and intelligence flowing to Ukraine. So what is Putin's actual goal? Trump's disapproval is at record highs and polls show his party will most likely loose midterm elections. In less than a month his power will be badly weakened. Why would Putin sign a long-term peace deal with a lame duck whose signature will soon be scrutinized at best and annulled at worst? He wouldn't. And here's where the slang comes in. In the eyes of Putin and his siloviki, Trump is a baryga — a greedy, unscrupulous businessman who puts profit above law and principle. Gangsters despise barygas, but they love using them. The goal is always to turn a baryga into a lokh — a mark, an outsider who doesn't understand the rules of the underworld and gets played to serve the gang's interests. By signing the diesel deal, Putin plays two scenarios at once: A) The deal miraculously helps his lokh keep power — great. B) The deal changes nothing, the baryga loses the midterms — but by then it has already done its job: inflamed US political tensions and acted as arson inside the American system. Putin knows that the majority of Americans support Ukraine. He knows that by signing, Trump draws unprecedented criticism, including from his own party. And he knows a baryga won't give up power easily, because he will have to answer for everything he did in office — this deal included. That's classic gangster/secret-service method: tie a man to your organization, make him a partner in your crimes, so he can't walk away. Pouring more oil — diesel, in this case — onto the most explosive fault lines of American politics, raising the stakes for Trump and pushing him past the point of no return serves Putin far better than a peace deal that could be voided within months. Remember: Putin's goal in the West is chaos, not peace.
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Richard Bath retweeted
Other countries might be defined by blood, territory or language. America has always been creedal, an ideal of liberty turned into a state. Its critics back-handedly recognise as much. The reason that anti-Americanism is a force in world affairs (unlike anti-Algerianism or anti-Armenianism or anti-Albanianism) is that America’s enemies acknowledge that it stands for something. That something is the package represented by personal autonomy, limited government, constitutional rule, regular elections and private enterprise – in a word, freedom. A bias towards freedom has, until now, characterised US foreign policy. A people habituated to liberty immediately saw what was wrong with Nazism and Communism. Which is why current US foreign policy is so shocking to pro-Americans. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of those rare occasions when we can clearly identify the aggressor. Vladimir Putin sought to annex a neighbour that offered him no threat – a neighbour that had given up its nuclear weapons in return for a promise that its sovereignty would be respected within its existing borders. Who guaranteed that promise? Britain, the United States and (never forget) Russia. Donald Trump is backing a belligerent dictatorship against a beleaguered democracy. Putin is the one leader he never disparages. He threatens annexation against Denmark, muses about handing away British territory, wages economic war on Canada. But not Russia. Never Russia. Now Trump is buying diesel from Russia, potash from Belarus, minerals from China – all because he doesn’t want to buy them from Canada, which has stood at America’s side in war after war. American friends, can you not see what this is doing, not just to America’s standing, but to the free world which your fathers have built since 1941? Trump is bringing down the international system from which the US has been the chief beneficiary. And for what? To drink liberal tears? God help us.
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