Joined March 2011
AI doom is way more fun than climate doom. Can we all appreciate how dumb the climate change stuff was and the fact it’s gone from our timelines. ✌️
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Man it's gotta be just a brutal day to be Jerry Jones. Just checking in on the worst play of all time. Holy crap these wells are bad, and the timing of the play arguably even worse. Comstock Western Haynesville expansion probably one of the worst timed bets in the last 10 years natural gas? That's saying a lot. So first, Jerry moves capital out of Louisiana, which is pretty much a different country than Texas. Cause the "easy approval" pipelines are all intrastate (i.e. don't cross state lines), the Louisiana gas supply market is radically different than Texas. Permian is puking gas into Texas, but not so much Louisiana (eventually though). So Jerry has built one of the highest cost gas assets (deep, dry gas with massive capital cost per well) and is competing with one of the lowest cost gas assets (associated Permian natural gas/liquids rich gas). Literally the cost of supply is ~$10/MMBtu difference. Permian cost is -$5/MMBtu and Western HSVL is +$5/MMBtu. Lmao. So, by the time he'd done HBP-ing the Western Haynesville and ready to grow, there's about 10 Bcf/d of $0-cost Permian gas coming to absolutely destroy the central Texas gas market. Their top quartile wells don't clear a cost of capital/make money until ~$4.50/MMBtu which is obviously never going to happen, and the average well doesn't tick until near $6/MMBtu. I dunno man. I am/was a fan of the Western Haynesville but this seems like a very notably awful spot for Comstock to be in. Compare the deep Haynesville to the Deep Woodford/Wolfcamp/Barnett in the Delaware (last picture) and where the Western Haynesville starts to break even, the Woodford is printing 0.5x P/I10% which is more than enough to incentivize drilling. Especially at scale, if you can get enough FT to get $0.90 tolls and lower cost processing you're laughing. Not really sure how this doesn't end in pain.
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Giving kids under 18 the covid shot was insane. And all of us who said it was insane were ripped to shreds by the “experts.” Here Fauci acknowledges it doesn’t make sense in his private diary. All while continuing to insist parents get their kids the shot. And boosters.
In which Fauci mentions that the FDA might have problems approving boosters for under 18s because of risk of myocarditis... and just sails right past.
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Every story about rising power bills blames data centers. Very few mention *why* there is a shortage of power. Data centers didn’t force baseload power plants to close without any reasonable backfill. Activists and policymakers - who are now blaming data centers - did.
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Replying to @ShaleTier7
Imagine all the nice things we could have if Jerry stuck to making sure the cowboys underperform instead of making sure natty sucks forever
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The percentage change in renewables since 2005 is pretty ridiculous, but the real story in U.S. electricity has always been the drop in coal and the rise in natural gas.
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"So you are spending $7 trillion?" Congress: "Yes Dave" "And you only have $5 trillion in revenue?" Congress: "That's correct Dave" "And you have $39 trillion in debt plus you are spending 25% of your revenue on only interest payments?" Congress: "That's correct Dave"
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Given that commodities are priced at the margin, all US gas would be priced based on int'l markets if still a net importer. That price is $15-20 in Western Europe. Instead, the shale revolution happened and gas in the US is $3, roughly unchanged post-Iran. via @SStapczynski 2/5
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Replying to @SimonMahan
"In 2024, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars ever reported." eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail…
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Shale gas isn't "peaking." Production set a record in 2025, and looking ahead basins including Appalachia and the Haynesville are likely to be principal sources of volume growth. There's new demand coming, and the market is ramping to meet it.
U.S. natural gas supply growth Is peaking @yagelski @websterdrake Permian is the only play that's growing Other shale gas plays are flat or declining & conventional gas is in terminal decline #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity #ShaleGas #Permian #EnergyInfrastructure #SupplyConstraints #USGas
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If you want to know the true value of an energy source, pay attention to how it performs when you need it most.
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About that transition to 100% renewables … Let’s hope New England reconsiders opposition to natgas pipelines.
Oil to the rescue 🇺🇸 🛢️ The largest source of power generation in New England right now is **oil** amid a big winter storm and below zero temperatures Oil kicks in as a dirty and inefficient backup source of power for Northeast US during the coldest winter months
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Fred retweeted
Replying to @NextWaveEFT
Play stupid games by forbidding pipelines when you are adjacent to a world class gas field, you win stupid prizes in the form of oil burn
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It is no exaggeration to say that the U.S. energy sector has undergone a profound transformation driven by the technological breakthroughs of the Shale Revolution. Twenty years ago, we thought natural gas prices would remain perpetually high. Of course, natural gas prices took a markedly different path.
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If someone says that U.S. natural gas prices are up 56%, remember that this is off a record low. The highest price increases are in areas constrained by a lack of pipeline (e.g. New England, New York).
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Literally my grandparents worked their entire lives, diligently paying taxes from their teens until they died. The total amount of taxes they paid over their entire lifetimes goes to a random fraudster who isn’t even prosecuted
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“A generous donation to a Somalian daycare center has just been made in your name.”
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Less rain 🏜️ Or more rain 🌧️ Spin the wheel, no matter what, if it's bad, it's your fault, and the only solution is to pay a carbon tax. 💸
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Fred retweeted
Replying to @tommy____g @WSJ
The WSJ article discusses Europe's green-energy transition, promised to cut emissions, enhance energy security, and boost the economy via jobs and cheap power. Emissions fell significantly, but energy prices surged, industries relocated, and growth stalled, worsening economic woes amid reliance on imports.
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The CEO of New England's grid (a region that has blocked gas pipeline after pipeline): "We cannot operate the system in the wintertime without a dependable energy source that can balance the system when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow." I think that says it all.
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