Joel Levin (@residualdeviant) profile picture

Behavioral scientist at @UCSD @RadySchool. Working on expertise, human-algorithm collaboration, methods + applications in medical decision making. 🐙/2

San Diego
Joined June 2009
Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)Photo by Joel Levin (@residualdeviant)
How did people in 1913 see the world? How did they think about the future? We trained LLMs exclusively on pre-1913 texts—no Wikipedia, no 20/20. The model literally doesn't know WWI happened. Announcing the Ranke-4B family of models. Coming soon: github.com/DGoettlich/histor…
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A 15% tariff "without" EU retaliation would likely increase "overall" US welfare per our projections: alashkar.pages.iu.edu/MAGA_J… But this doesn't mean US consumers benefit. It's a massive redistribution of income from US consumers (and the EU) to US corporations and the Treasury.
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🚨New WP!🚨 "Antiracism and its Discontents: The Prevalence and Political Influence of Opposition to Antiracism among White Americans" w/ @RobbWiller We find opposition to antiracism is a widespread ideology profoundly shaping US racial politics 🧵 osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/xv…
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Economists claim to understand diminishing returns everywhere except humour: evidence from phenomenally lukewarm "concept of a plan" tweets plastered on my timeline
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Joel Levin retweeted
How do you feel about happy hour?
How do you feel about dynamic pricing? Mostly positive: 10% Mostly negative: 74% yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/…
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🚨New WP: Can LLMs predict results of social science experiments?🚨 Prior work uses LLMs to simulate survey responses, but can they predict results of social science experiments? Across 70 studies, we find striking alignment (r = .85) between simulated and observed effects 🧵👇
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Sometimes I forget how much I owe my parents, for all they achieved and passed on to me. My mom sent me this pic today. This is a thread about her. That’s my mom in lower right. My grandmother, top left, was illiterate and lived in a mud&hay house she built with her husband.1/n
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Imagine it's 1984. Gas prices are still double the 1970s. Inflation is rising again, from 3% to above 4%. Interest rates are 9% and rising.... And the government decides the problem is small, low priced, energy efficient Japanese cars.
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HAPPY FATHER’S DAY TO ALL, INCLUDING THE RADICAL LEFT DEGENERATES THAT ARE RAPIDLY BRINGING THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA INTO THIRD WORLD NATION STATUS WITH THEIR MANY ATTEMPTS AT TRYING TO INFLUENCE OUR SACRED COURT SYSTEM INTO BREAKING TO THEIR VERY SICK AND DANGEROUS WILL. WE NEED STRENGTH AND LOYALTY TO OUR COUNTRY, AND ITS WONDERFUL CONSTITUTION. EVERYTHING WILL BE ON FULL DISPLAY COME NOVEMBER 5TH, 2024 - THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!! Donald Trump Truth Social 12:50 PM EST 06/16/24
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If you see this and do JDM research, please retweet the tweet below. We're trying to amp up @SJDM_Tweets on here!
Hi Society for Judgment and Decision-Making appreciators! Let us know about your SJDM related announcements, conferences, and jobs by tagging @SJDM_Tweets in your tweets!
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Now available online! Feel free to reach out if you have questions/comments, we hope this tutorial will be useful! academic.oup.com/jcr/advance…
Woke up to the good news that our paper (w/ @nreinholtz) on group sequential designs is accepted at @JCRNEWS ! Want to learn more about designing more efficient and more informative studies? This blog post summarizes the key insights from our paper: quentinandre.net/post/more-e…
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Berkeley peeps, @XlabAtBerkeley is offering an incredible service *for free*: they will help you audit your empirical research results. Take advantage! xlab.berkeley.edu/research/A…
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I'm excited to share my new project, Expertise for Expounding on Extrapolations of Exceptionally Extravagant Experimental Exercises. As motivation, I use the classic paradigm of Munroe (2011)'s groundbreaking study about which-colored jelly beans lead to acne (see data). 🧵
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I’m running a prototype Science House this summer! It’s a great opportunity for anyone looking to do research outside academia. No application, just do some science, post it on the internet, and send me the link. adammastroianni.com/science-…
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NEW: in @apsrjournal we report a treasure trove of data from inside dozens of campaigns’ own experiments on persuasion The data reveal experimentation at a vast scale that is revolutionizing campaigning challenges academic theories & could have implications for democracy 🧵
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Joel Levin retweeted
"Data available upon request."
What is the funniest joke you have ever heard?
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I was in the Air Force from 1986-1990. There was a small group of gays and lesbians at the Air Station I was assigned to. Most of them were friends of mine. The AFOSI (Air Force Office of Special Investigations) ran a sting operation to bust the gays. One of them was undercover, pretending to be gay. One night, he told me he was "gay" and asked me if I was interested in a relationship. I told him I wasn't, but I could introduce him to some gay friends of mine. The next day, I was called into the OSI and asked to write a sworn testimony against my friends. I refused to do it. Prior to that point, I was an orderly room clerk (a status position for my AFSC), I sat on the board for Airman of the Quarter boards, etc. I was about to be fast-tracked to get my star (the promotion from Senior Airman to Buck Sergeant). Then all hell happened. I started getting written up for typos. I failed a room inspection for having dust on my service cap. Any little mistake was a write-up. In the Air Force, the lowest punishment is a letter of counseling. Three LOCs and you can get a Letter of Reprimand. Three Letters of Reprimand, you can get an Article 15, and kicked out. Within 2 months, I was getting an Article 15 and kicked out. I lost my GI Bill, which would have paid for my college. All because I wouldn't testify against people for being gay. And I wouldn't do that because it would have been far worse for them. They literally could have gone to Leavenworth. When people say that we haven't made progress in the last few decades, that's because they don't know how much things were different then.
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IF IMMUNITY IS NOT GRANTED TO A PRESIDENT, EVERY PRESIDENT THAT LEAVES OFFICE WILL BE IMMEDIATELY INDICTED BY THE OPPOSING PARTY. WITHOUT COMPLETE IMMUNITY, A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PROPERLY FUNCTION! Donald Trump Truth Social 04:20 PM EST 01/10/24
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27 more followers and I can retire
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