techerrati retweeted
BREAKING: The U.S. is now preparing to completely abandon Gulf countries, as Trump envoy Tom Barrack directly warns Gulf allies that Washington can no longer guarantee their security indefinitely, telling regional officials in Doha that they must take responsibility for their own defense, signalling the end of the U.S. security umbrella in the Middle East, per the Wall Street Journal.
Barrack said the 80-year-old U.S. security-for-oil arrangement is no longer sustainable, pointing to regional defense partnerships as the way forward. The warning comes as Gulf states face Iranian strikes on U.S. military infrastructure and growing uncertainty over Washington’s future military commitment to the region.
techerrati retweeted
Things are looking very bad. Between Trump's coordination with Netanyahu - his bizarre endorsement of the Israeli war criminal and Heghseth's surprise visit there - troop movements, and perhaps most importantly, a non-starter American proposal, the likelihood of a third round of the war is reaching 90% in my assessment.
As I have pointed out for weeks, Trump pretends the Strait is open and wants to exchange the lifting of the blockade for Iran's 60% HEU instead of a reopening of the Strait.
It's understandable he wants a final deal right away. But it is unrealistic to expect a final deal without final-deal American compromises. As I understand it, Trump is not willing to offer that upfront, but wants Iran's 60% HEU shipped out upfront.
This won't work and will likely lead to a third round of the war - before the midterms and possibly before Israel's elections on the 27th.
More here: tritaparsi.substack.com/p/ca…
techerrati retweeted
He says the name just fine when he’s begging the Qataris for a personal jet or the Saudis for funding for his son-in-law’s private equity firm.
Wonder what’s changed?
techerrati retweeted
Video of masked Israeli settlers striking European diplomats and elected officials near Taybeh, a Christian village in Palestine. The 78-year-old French mayor Bernard Baudoux was thrown to the ground and beaten with iron bars.
Make no mistake: If the Israeli government wanted to put an end to this, they could within minutes. They don't.
Just like Biden pretended that he wanted a ceasefire, but in reality worked tirelessly to enable Israel's genocide.
They are playing the same trick on us again.
techerrati retweeted
.@PeteHegseth is so worried about the findings of the internal investigation into CENTCOM’s killing of at least 123 Iranian children in Minab that he is delaying the release of the final report until after the midterms.
Gift link:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Once the West recognizes that cheap drones and ballistic missiles — plus AI lowering the barrier of entry for their development — means that total victory and subjugation of smaller countries is no longer possible without unacceptably high costs, the result longterm *should* be a world at much more peace, where diplomacy actually matters as a means to keeping that peace
The defeat of the geopolitical West in Yemen will reconfigure West Asia no less than the US-Israeli defeat in the Iran war. This is a very big deal.
‘So the Saudi-Houthi war, while it is certainly endogenous to Saudi-Houthi relations, is also a proxy war between the two global coalitions. It is in part a contest between the war-making techniques and weapons at the disposal of the two sides. The outcome of this struggle will therefore have important consequences for the global balance of power. The side that prevails will emerge with much greater military prestige.’
‘We can therefore state with high confidence that the Saudis will eventually be forced to sue for peace and offer substantial concessions to the Houthis, up to and including recognizing them as the legitimate government of Yemen. This will be the second strategic defeat for the geopolitical West and a victory for the global insurgency against it.’
techerrati retweeted
This is one of the biggest geopolitical mysteries of the year: why did China just save the world economy?
Because, make no mistake, it absolutely did. Analysts are pretty much unanimous on this: had China not dramatically - and I mean dramatically - reduced its oil imports this year, the price of crude oil would have gone through the roof and dragged the global economy down with it.
For proof, read how Javier Blas from Bloomberg - widely recognized as one of the world’s top energy analysts - explains what China did to Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer on their podcast “The Long Game” (thelonggame.substack.com/p/t…).
As Blas puts it, China went “from 11, 12 million barrels a day to less than 6 million barrels a day” of seaborne crude imports, and that “freed a lot of oil for other countries, particularly in Asia.” India, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia “could buy the barrels that China was not buying.”
To be clear, China wasn’t the only factor - surging US exports and the IEA’s emergency release helped too - but it was by far the biggest: JPMorgan reckons China accounted for about 74% of the fall in global crude trade (fortune.com/2026/06/10/oil-p…).
So it's no exaggeration to say that it is China, first and foremost, that saved the world economy this year.
If you remember the early days of the Iran war, none of this is what was predicted. In fact some US think tankers, such as the (always horrendous) Zineb Riboua from the Hudson Institute, were even cheering the war as being “all about China… the opening act in the larger contest against China,” the moment the US would crack “the central pillar of a regional order that Beijing has assembled” (thefp.com/p/the-iran-strike-…).
Seven months on, what actually happened is that not only did China come out of the war unscathed economically, and strengthened strategically, it also ended up shielding the world economy, America’s included, from the fallout of the very war that was supposed to be its undoing.
Breaking news: if you do something that’s supposed to be a “blow” to someone else - some sort of 3D chess move to gain the upper hand - and they end up having to rescue you from the fallout, maybe it wasn’t such a brilliant strategic move after all.
So how did China pull it off? And, more intriguingly, why did it choose to rescue countries, including the US, from a war that Washington’s own hawks were openly selling as a strike against China itself?
And why do this when it effectively dampened Iran's leverage considerably, even though they're supposed to be China's "ally" (which, as we'll see, is false)?
This is the topic of my latest article. I went very deep researching all the Chinese sources I could find on this, looking at the exact legal mechanisms, and at what officials, oil refiners and state media actually said.
The answer turns out to be far stranger than I expected: no-one in Beijing actually ever ordered an import cut. China, effectively, seems to have saved the world economy incidentally, as a by-product of its own domestic policy to protect Chinese consumers.
Which is the real story here: China has become so large and so important it can just rescue the world economy as a mere side effect.
In fact what I discovered, hilariously, is that the Chinese were just as surprised as anyone else: it’s only weeks after Western media started crediting China with saving the world economy that Chinese media picked up the story. And even then, CCTV’s first take in July (chinanews.com.cn/gj/2026/07-…) presented it as something 外媒称 (wàiméi chēng, “foreign media claim”) 🤣
Almost like a giant suddenly waking up to its own powers. Because, that's the thing: intentions fade, consequences stay. Intentional or not, as Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, put it (reuters.com/business/aerospa…), the consequence is that it's now China, not OPEC, who calls the shots on global energy markets.
The valve of global oil pricing is now in Shandong, not in Zhongdong anymore (Zhongdong, 中东, is the Middle East in Chinese).
Full article here, with how China’s 20-year strategic nightmare, the “Malacca dilemma”, has now effectively become its leverage over the rest of the world: arnaudbertrand.substack.com/…
techerrati retweeted
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia has canceled or postponed a string of flagship international events amid the regional war and escalating Ansarallah strikes, Al-Monitor reports.
Events disrupted so far include:
➤ EU-Gulf summit: The Oct. 24 summit in Riyadh, which all 27 EU leaders were due to attend, was postponed Thursday with no new date.
➤ FIFAe Finals: The esports tournament set for Oct. 16-25 in Jeddah was postponed. Brazil and Japan had already pulled their teams over security concerns.
➤ Six Kings Slam: The tennis exhibition, due to feature Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, was pushed from Oct. 21-24 to Dec. 27-30.
➤ Rally Saudi Arabia: The final round of the World Rally Championship was canceled in September over "ongoing regional developments" and moved to Sardinia.
➤ Red Sea International Film Festival: The December festival was postponed to late 2027.
➤ Joy Awards: Saudi Arabia's answer to the Oscars and Grammys, set for January, was postponed amid financial strain and the Iran war, Reuters reported.
➤ Soundstorm: The electronic music festival was canceled. Its organizer gave no reason and said it will return in 2027.
➤ Esports World Cup: The tournament was moved from Riyadh to Paris in August.
➤ World Petroleum Council congress: Executives from BP, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies couldn't attend this week's event in Riyadh because of travel disruptions.
➤ Future Investment Initiative: The "Davos in the Desert" summit, still set for Oct. 26-29, is moving to a hybrid format so executives can join remotely, Reuters reported.
➤ AFC Asian Cup: The January 2027 tournament is still on, but the confederation's president said it could be pushed back to 2028.
➤ 2034 World Cup: Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund plans to drop five proposed new stadiums, Semafor reported.
🔗 Story linked below.
techerrati retweeted
It’s bad enough when they tell immigrants to show ‘gratitude’ but now they’re telling a man born in America he should show ‘gratitude’ - what, because he’s a Muslim?
Also, it wasn’t El-Sayed who wrote a book complaining about his community and upbringing, it was Vance.
techerrati retweeted
🚨BREAKING: The Saudi-backed Forces HQ In Aden Is Burning After A Yemeni Missile Strike
The headquarters in the Presidential Palace complex has been destroyed and was allegedly used to plot attacks by Saudi Arabia.
techerrati retweeted
More proof of the complete absurdity of the proscription of Palestine Action.
What a stain on this government that people in this country are unable to buy and enjoy the work of one of this generation’s greatest writing talents.
De-proscribe Palestine Action now.
techerrati retweeted
In my latest note, I make a high confidence prediction that the Houthis will defeat the Saudis. The argument is systematized via Gentry’s vulnerability theory, that we have used previously to successfully predict that the Iranian will use a counter-personnel threat to neutralize the US counter-value threat to Iranian civilians.
More generally, the note includes a full workup. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, read this. If you want to stay behind, don’t. Link in next tweet. You know why.
techerrati retweeted
The defeat of the geopolitical West in Yemen will reconfigure West Asia no less than the US-Israeli defeat in the Iran war. This is a very big deal.
‘So the Saudi-Houthi war, while it is certainly endogenous to Saudi-Houthi relations, is also a proxy war between the two global coalitions. It is in part a contest between the war-making techniques and weapons at the disposal of the two sides. The outcome of this struggle will therefore have important consequences for the global balance of power. The side that prevails will emerge with much greater military prestige.’
‘We can therefore state with high confidence that the Saudis will eventually be forced to sue for peace and offer substantial concessions to the Houthis, up to and including recognizing them as the legitimate government of Yemen. This will be the second strategic defeat for the geopolitical West and a victory for the global insurgency against it.’
In my latest note, I make a high confidence prediction that the Houthis will defeat the Saudis. The argument is systematized via Gentry’s vulnerability theory, that we have used previously to successfully predict that the Iranian will use a counter-personnel threat to neutralize the US counter-value threat to Iranian civilians.
More generally, the note includes a full workup. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, read this. If you want to stay behind, don’t. Link in next tweet. You know why.
techerrati retweeted
China believes one of its greatest advantages is its “complete industrial system” 完整的工业体系.
Chinese policymakers believe it gives China an edge in developing and scaling up industries of the future.
“The world’s most comprehensive industrial system provides a solid foundation for developing industries of the future. China possesses the world’s most complete and largest industrial system, along with extensive supporting industrial capabilities. It is the only country in the world with every industrial category in the United Nations industrial classification system.
As the technological pathways of future industries gradually mature, the key to competition will be how quickly these technologies can be commercialized and scaled up for industrial production. China's full range of industrial sectors and enormous manufacturing scale provide the comprehensive supply chains needed to transform cutting-edge technologies into commercial products. This enables new products to be rapidly manufactured at scale, while production processes are continuously improved, costs reduced, and performance enhanced.
China has developed numerous internationally competitive, specialized industrial clusters in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim. By leveraging these clusters, China can further capitalize on economies of agglomeration, accelerate the transition of cutting-edge technologies into mass production, and strengthen the overall competitiveness of finished products.”
techerrati retweeted
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia is the world’s top buyer of U.S. weapons, and Houthi missiles are still getting through.
It just paid $9 billion for 730 Patriot missiles, yet Houthi strikes have hit its airports and killed at least 14 people.
So how? It comes down to 4 things.
First, size. Saudi Arabia is about 3 times as big as Texas, with oil sites, airports and bases spread out across all of it.
Second, experience. The Houthis learned how to flood radars with drones while firing at Israel, and some of their missiles can change direction mid-flight.
Third, numbers. They’ve grown from about 30,000 fighters in 2015 to as many as 350,000 by 2024, while Saudi Arabia is reportedly running low on interceptors.
And fourth, a bad guess. A former U.S. ambassador to Riyadh says the Saudis assumed the Houthis would never hit civilian targets like airports.
They were wrong, and now they’re paying for it.
Source: NBC News / Writer: Daniyal
techerrati retweeted
Any Democrat using language that legitimizes Trump's persecution of Rep. Omar is complicit in his effort to denaturalize an elected official and silence her criticisms of him.
It's not an "investigation." It's a racist, lawless vendetta against a Black, Muslim, immigrant woman.
techerrati retweeted
كنت سأكتب صباحاً، على سبيل الطرفة، أن نواف سلام قد يطلب إحالة قيادة حزب الله على المجلس العدلي بجريمة تأمين المال لإيواء المهجّرين. وإذ… هذا المخزومي يطالب بالتحقيق في هذه "الجريمة". جنون عبيد ترامب وبن سلمان في لبنان منذ الصباح (منذ إعلان الحزب عن خطة دفع بدل إيواء لكل عائلة فقدت مسكنها الوحيد) يكشف حقيقة معاداتهم لنا، نحن الناس. هذه السلطة وداعموها ليسوا سوى إباديين يريدون القضاء علينا، علينا جميعاً، مجتمعاً وأفراداً، لا على إطارنا السياسي. ثمة نازية صهيونية إبادية في الخطاب الموجه ضدنا، وما عادوا يخجلون بها.
إنّ إعلان حزب الله عن تخصيص مبالغ مالية كبيرة لإيواء العائلات المتضرّرة يطرح أسئلة خطيرة حول مصادر هذه الأموال، وكيفية إدخالها إلى لبنان ونقلها وتوزيعها خارج الأطر المالية الرسمية.
وتزداد خطورة هذه المسألة في ضوء العقوبات التي فرضتها وزارة الخزانة الأميركية على أفراد وشبكات متّهمة بتمويل حزب الله ونقل الأموال عبر قنوات غير شرعية.
إنّ مساعدة أهلنا المتضرّرين واجب وطني، لكن معاناتهم لا يمكن أن تشكّل غطاءً لمنظومات مالية موازية أو ذريعة لتجاوز القوانين اللبنانية.
لذلك، نطالب الحكومة ومصرف لبنان وهيئة التحقيق الخاصة والسلطات القضائية والأمنية المختصة بالتحرّك الفوري للتحقّق من مصادر هذه الأموال ومساراتها، وكشف أيّ ارتباط محتمل بشبكات خاضعة للعقوبات، ومحاسبة كلّ من يثبت تورّطه في مخالفات مالية.
فلا سيادة لدولة لا تحتكر السلاح ولا تفرض سلطتها على حركة الأموال. ولا يمكن القبول بدولة داخل الدولة، لا عسكرياً ولا مالياً.
لبنان يحتاج إلى دولة واحدة، وسلاح شرعي واحد، وقانون يُطبَّق على الجميع دون استثناء.
techerrati retweeted
This is horrifying — the use of AI to bolster propaganda to justify bombing another country. This period we are entering is going to plunge us so much deeper into the abyss.





























