refined volume retweeted
Replying to @PeterSchiff
Peter, I used to do exactly the same thing and then a very successful man made me realize I was focused on the wrong things. The successful wealth builder focus on the offense, not the defense, the income not the expenses, on what they can control not what they can’t control
I can control my income. I cannot control the cost of things. This is the problem with the pessimist. They’re always trying to reduce their cost rather than increase their income, trying to control what they spend rather than what they earn, protecting against the downside rather than going all in on the upside. This way of thinking kept me poorer for much of my life. It was all ideas adopted from my parents and grandparents, which I expect where you got your scarcity thinking. I’m not trying to convince you of another way of thinking as I think it’s probably too late for you. My experience is you’re so embedded in your bias that you would never let go of it… Thus the fixation to gold & Silver and the world one day coming to an end. Love Grant
refined volume retweeted
This is one of my hand drawn charts from the ’80s I framed up for the office.
I have spent my life trying to demonstrate that markets are not random collections of disconnected events. There is an underlying structure to their movements, and that structure involves the interaction of time, price, capital flows, and human confidence.
refined volume retweeted
The Month I Ran My Hedge Fund from the Local Chase Bank
After Enron went bankrupt in 2001, I decided to start a hedge fund. Until then, I’d spent my entire career at a large company, trading off its balance sheet. I knew how to trade, but knew little about the logistics of launching and running a fund. Plus I had no peers in Houston who could help guide me through the process.
I found out-of-town legal help. My clearing broker was a NY investment bank, Smith Barney. I knew I needed two bank accounts: one for the business to pay rent, salaries, etc and one for the investor money that supported the trades. I figured, incorrectly it turned out, that I could stay local for the latter.
I figured I needed a national, sophisticated bank so I went to my closest Chase branch and asked to open a business account. They were very accommodating and asked some basic questions. Suffice it to say, they were as new to hedge fund finances as I was. But they were happy to have the new accounts, especially since one would be funded with a 6-figure deposit and the other would eventually be funded with millions.
In the spring of 2002, I opened the first account. I used it to pay for normal business expenses: rent, office equipment, legal fees, etc. All was fine.
In August, I called my external investors and told them to send their funds to join my personal investment in the fund to the second Chase account, the limited partnership account. They did. Chase confirmed they received the funds and had no problem.
Quick aside, energy trades in 2002 could be done on an exchange or over-the-counter directly with a counterparty. Most trades could be executed on exchange and be relatively capital efficient but some instruments only traded directly with counterparties. Today, exchanges clear almost any nat gas product one would want to trade but it was less so back then.
I had friends at another trading house, Sempra, who fast-tracked a credit arrangement for me to trade OTC there. I would have to post cash as margin to support my trades given I was not a so-called “credit-worthy counterparty,” but it was fine. I wasn’t planning on taking large net positions given my small capital base, though sometimes I might be long on the exchanges and short to Sempra, or vice versa. I would need to post initial margin and maintenance margin both at my clearing broker and with any direct counterparty to account for the daily price swings at both places. This meant I would have to move money between my prime broker, where I kept my exchange trades, and Sempra, several times a week.
The second week of August I started trading. The first thing I needed to do was send more than half of the LP account funds to my prime broker, where most of my trades would be. The neighborhood Chase branch executed this wire with no problem. Trading at first was small. The second week I did my first trade with Sempra. I had to post margin with them. Chase executed that wire with no problem.
By the third week my trades were picking up. I ended up long with Sempra and short on the exchanges. When the market went up, I had a surplus at Sempra and would ask them to send me those funds, as the credit agreement allowed to me to do. I needed that money to cover the offsetting exchange losses. Very quickly I was moving hundreds of thousands through my local Chase branch several times a week. Red flags quickly went off at the bank. Suffice it to say, I had not prepared them for this level of activity.
The following week the market fell. I needed to send money to Sempra hundreds of thousands of dollars. I told my prime broker to send some of my account surplus there to Chase, and asked Chase to send some of that to Sempra. That’s when my 4 week old hedge fund was hit by an almost fatal blow. Chase accepted the wire from Smith Barney, but I found out the next day that they did not send the wire out. Sempra was calling to ask where the margin money was. I didn’t know. I called Chase and they told me there was a hold on it but it would go out later that day. I checked in the late afternoon. It had not gone out.
I was at the bank went it opened the next morning. I explained how I needed this wire to go out. The account had been frozen, they said, until they got a green light from their compliance department. They didn’t properly “know your customer” and froze my account until they could understand what was going on. This level of activity out of a new account of this size was not something this branch had ever seen before. Nor did they understand an energy hedge fund with over-the-counter trades.
I was furious they had not explained this the previous day and asked them to just send out this one wire and then we’d sort it out. I’d move to another bank asap. They declined. I pleaded, just send this one. It wasn’t working.
I panicked. I had failed to meet my Sempra margin call. They could close my trades. I called Sempra from the bank, explained the issue, and convinced them to give me a 24-hour grace period. But if I didn’t meet my cash call by the next business day, they would close my trades. Then I would be imbalanced on the market with my just my short trades on the exchange. With a sharp market move in the wrong direction, my little hedge fund would have been toast within a month of opening.
Throughout this, normal bank customers were flowing in/out of the bank. I told them I wasn’t leaving the bank branch until they sent the wire. It was my money. I started to raise my voice and cause a scene, the best I could. I hoped they would send the wire just to get me to quit disrupting their normal flow of customers. I’m normally a quiet guy but my business, and maybe career, depended on convincing the branch manager to send this wire out. After two hours and a lot of calls with higher-ups, they consented, but they said they had to send a team to my office the next day to inspect my “business.”
The office space I had was nothing to fancy, to say the least. The building was fine, an 11-story class A. The office, a sublease, was 3 rooms. Open the door and you were immediately on the “trading floor”, which was one row of desks where the 5 of us sat. It had a small kitchen and a tiny conference room to the side. There were a lot of computers but of course no receptionist, no art, no waiting area, just a handful of 20 or 30 something year olds in shorts (August in Houston) with a football nearby.
Chase sent 3 bankers in suits. It was… awkward. I led them to the conference room and tried to explain what we did and why the funds had the velocity they did. They quickly told me that they were not equipped to handle my account and I needed to find another bank by the end of the week. I asked them to facilitate the wires for another couple days until I could, which they agreed to.
I called Smith Barney, my broker in NY, and explained the situation. They immediately understood and helped me open a bank account there. In retrospect, I should have had my investment account there from the beginning. I’d already had my business account at the local Chase and figured they were my bank. I had not properly distinguished between local Chase and JPMorgan Chase. I didn’t know any better.
As I later learned more about banking regs and KYC rules, I realized the local branch acted exactly as to be expected given the circumstance. It was my fault. Luckily, it got straightened out and I can laugh about it now. I still think about how naive I had been every time I drive by the bank branch.
refined volume retweeted
People say the stock market is going to crash, and they’ve been saying it for more than a year. Yet the Dow makes new highs. They don’t understand international capital flows.
As geopolitical concerns rise in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, more and more capital comes in.
The Dow, when it’s leading, shows foreign capital coming in. The S&P is more domestic institutions, and Nasdaq is the retail one.
Researchers built an AI that doxes any "anonymous" reddit account in under a minutes for $2.
eth zurich and anthropic published a terrifying paper proving that "practical anonymity" on the internet is officially dead.
they built a fully autonomous ai pipeline that takes your pseudonymous posts, extracts your identity signals, searches the web, and figures out exactly who you are. no human investigator needed.
the numbers are actually mindblowing..
- 67% of hacker news users identified correctly
- when the system makes a guess, it is right 90% of the time
- it even unmasked scientists whose interview transcripts were explicitly redacted for privacy
the scariest part? even time doesn't protect you.. they tested users who took a full year break and changed their interests. the ai still matched their old and new profiles with 90% precision. it sees through your persona changes like they aren't even there.
there is no defense against this. the agent splits the work into tiny, benign tasks like "summarizing a profile" or "ranking candidates." no api safety guardrail is going to flag it because no single step looks malicious..
every throwaway account. every "nobody will connect this to me" comment. it’s all just searchable micro-data now.
refined volume retweeted
If Dario wants to slow down the pace of AI, he should just move the company to Europe.
while my prediction of an earnings dump on $HOG was correct
my short thesis has been disproven
look at how fast that dip got bought up
SHORT $HOG
harley-davidson is a legacy business that has failed to reach a new generation of consumers
after attending the sturgis motorcycle rally in 2025 in south dakota i saw the target demographic clearer than ever: retired baby boomers and senior citizens who live in the midwest
the company's culture has suffered for a decade. it caught the woke mind virus in 2017. its share of the heavyweight motorcycle market has fallen from 50% in 2019 to less than 38% today
in 2022 then ceo jochen zeitz said it was a cliché to label harley-davidson’s customer base as political conservatives, saying the brand’s fans comprised “a very diverse and inclusive community.” zeitz was criticised for his "extreme pro-european lifestyle” and that he “in no way represents... the americana motorcycling community”
the company missed a generational opportunity twice by not partnering with the trump administration in 2017 and 2025
“a harley-davidson should never be built in another country—never! ... if they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end — they surrendered, they quit! the aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!” - president donald j. trump
the company has suffered from tariff-related expenses. 2025 financial results show $67M in expenses and projected $75–$105M in tariff costs for 2026
the c-suite and board has a revolving door. the new ceo artie starrs never rode a motorcycle before joining the company and is being mogged by competitor indian motorcycle, who made a commercial about harley-davidson hiring “a ceo from a pizza company,” referring to starrs' previous role as ceo of pizza hut
starrs is an accountant and he has deleveraged the balance sheet and increased liquidity. but this does not solve the lack of sales to an aging and immobile demographic, and tariff-related manufacturing issues
looking at the stock's 5 year chart the downward trajectory is clear, the rallies are getting shorter and losing steam faster
harley-davidson reports earnings on july 23 and my view is they will fail to meet expectations
this week is gonna be hairy
glad I have no positions on
except being long nikkei 225
🇺🇸U.S. BOND MARKET IS HEADING INTO ANOTHER CRITICAL WEEK
Last Wednesday, Treasury yields dropped sharply after the government announced larger bond buybacks.
This week, three major events could determine where yields go next:
- Wednesday: PCE inflation data.
- Wednesday: U.S. GDP data.
- Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole.
Cooler inflation and stable growth could push yields lower and support markets.
But hotter inflation or weaker growth could reignite volatility.
While Warsh has avoided giving clear policy guidance, any remarks on inflation, growth, or interest rates could further influence yields and broader markets.
this is what permissionless decentralized blockchains were created for
O hacker do GTA 6 inventou o sistema de contato mais insano que já vi
Ele tá vazando toda a gameplay e está pedindo 400 monero:native (R$ 900 mil) só pra você conseguir falar com ele.
O site deles está hospedado de forma descentralizada em Arweave, lembra da arweave:native ?
Quando você clica na aba “Contact”, o site faz automaticamente:
- Cria uma conta nova e anônima no Session (um app de mensagem super privado, tipo um WhatsApp que ninguém consegue rastrear)
- Te entrega uma frase secreta de 12 palavras (é a senha da conta. Perdeu = perdeu pra sempre)
- Gera um valor único de Monero, tipo:
400.818811529987 XMR
Os números depois da vírgula são um código secreto único da sua conta.
Você precisa mandar exatamente esse valor de uma carteira pessoal (Cake Wallet, Feather etc.). Se mandar de exchange, arredonda e ele nunca te encontra.
Quando a transação aparece na blockchain da Monero, ele lê os números depois da vírgula, descobre sua conta Session e te chama.
Absurdo de sofisticado, essas blockchains de privacidade são bem ousadas e tenho incerteza quanto ao futuro.
last year my shortlist for the next bond included tom holland and aaron taylor-johnson
the latest odds are more interesting
polymarket.com/event/next-ja…
interested in @ChrisCamillo take on the GTA VI trade since a hacker released multiple authenticated clips of gameplay
the hacker's coin is up +1206% on solana
while $TTWO is down -3.52% on nasdaq
chris' thesis was that the netflix trailer on aug 27 would catalyze audience reaction online that could translate to a potential appreciation in the stock price
this black swan event has renewed focus on the product
yet there has been no official response by @RockstarGames to date
the stock has been struggling but remains above the trendline
refined volume retweeted
Iconic Tom Jung art for Ralph Bakshi’s The Lord of the Rings movie poster (1978)








































