control the WACC, control the world | thoughts on the energy transition

Joined November 2019
AI is doing amazing things for right-to-repair. I used to think any car or machine software source code should be released after 10yrs, but you can program anything now. There’s some good money to be made with a laptop in repairing equipment for farmers, old cars, anything else.
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As a visitor to Puerto Rico there should be a better acknowledgment of the development restriction inherent by preventing domestic energy flows to the island. You can help development by more things than just dollars, Gulf Coast hydrocarbons would love more demand.
Over the past 20 years, the US mainland has typically accounted for less than 10% of Puerto Rico's fuel imports, and never more than 15%. Annualizing the volumes shipped under the Jones Act waiver alone would have resulted in the US mainland accounting for 40% in 2025.
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You think the traffic jam in Houston on 610 loop is bad, just imagine if diesel exports were banned. Tank tops would be reached and most probably gasoline prices would increase. Not a great recipe.
Replying to @APIenergy
The Gulf Coast holds 54% of U.S. refining capacity and makes more fuel than it uses. The East Coast relies partly on imports. Banning exports would trap surplus diesel in one region while tightening the global market that supplies another.
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It appears S&P agrees with me on refinery run cuts that would be inevitable.
S&P analysis: Banning diesel exports would raise gasoline prices. And jet fuel prices would also increase.
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More analysis on a diesel ban being bad for consumers. You are seeing some minor talk about red diesel, but ti me that’s just subsidy talk.
Goldman on US diesel export restrictions #oott #iran
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I call these “bottlecap problems.” As a kid it was free Astros tickets for 20 Powerade caps, so there was a lot of work in me finding caps. As agents are more prevalent we really don’t have a framework for AI that can trawl all data, we used to have inherent speed bumps.
The Blue Cross/Blue Shield Association says that AI is already driving *up* healthcare costs, as hospitals use the technology to find instances where they can bill more for the same level of care. bcbs.com/about-us/associatio…
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We need a renewed call for a chips embargo.
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Any export ban on diesel puts a localized clamp on refinery optimization, and you fill tanks and distort prices immediately. Unintended consequences abound, like higher gasoline prices, product re-optimization, and more.
If you ban diesel exports, this is what happens: 1) Without the overseas market, diesel inventories start to accumulate domestically. This temporarily puts downward pressure on wholesale prices in the US, likely more so in the Gulf Coast than anywhere else. HOWEVER
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It’s interesting we basically have an upstream war (Iran) and a downstream war (Ukraine-Russia), and prices are being driven by both of course. One wonders where the crack spread could be with the Strait opened.
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Downstream is Upstream! Real “crude glut” monkey paw scenario, but refining is a literal bottleneck, you can’t just go find more refining tomorrow, the cycle time is much higher than new wells. Refining is insurance, and Dangote looks very smart right now.
while i appreciate that—especially through Hormuz crisis—crude and crack spreads have generally moved together, it's really important that they don't NEED to and that crude and diesel are different commodities—could easily imagine a world with $60 crude and $100 diesel cracks
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If the Navier-Stokes news came out before my frontal lobe had finished development I would have tattooed this on my chest.
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I am imagining reading this in engineering class as I’m taking fluid dynamics, amazing things happening here. I’m already trialing using GPT for pipeline hydraulics, many more things to come.
We’re sharing a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, one of the deepest problems at the frontier of mathematics. The proof was produced by a group of agents, using an OpenAI next-generation model significantly more capable than GPT-6 Astra. The problem concerns whether the description of smooth three-dimensional fluid motion modeled by the Navier-Stokes equations can break down. It has remained unresolved for roughly 90 years.
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“With enough time and tokens anything is possible!” -me at work responding to a dumb new idea
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I’m not a big video game guy anymore with kids, but I’ve seen a lot of fun projects with AI tools that remind me of the old-school mods released for games. It’s fun to see what folks have made as things get simpler to execute.
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Forgive my ignorance, has there been an instance of an LLM taking over actual compute functions in one of these sandbox failures?
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Me and my friends in the Permian Basin are looking forward to these 765kV lines, more power is needed.
The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved two Oncor applications for the state’s first 765-kV lines, ignoring lawmakers and landowners’ calls to delay or deny the permits in the process. The PUC agreed the $3.95 billion projects through the Permian Basin are needed but tweaked the projects’ certificates of convenience and necessity to encourage Oncor to work with the parties involved on possible route deviations. The projects will result in a single-circuit, 429-mile line running from southwest Fort Worth to east of El Paso and are expected to be energized by 2029. ow.ly/f0kU50ZHhBY
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Poor OFS sales guy just wants to fly to Dallas and show Jerry Jones the latest toys to make more natty gas.
NOT the movie CARRY-ON… this was REAL. When some fracking equipment set off an alarm at OKC Airport, and multiple detonators were found buried inside pipes, yeah… our team was paying VERY close attention.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The items discovered were inert replica/dummy detonators used in oilfield training, not live explosives, according to the TSA. While realistic replicas are prohibited in both carry-on and checked bags, bomb squad experts confirmed they were safe. tsa.gov/about/employee…
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I have a big sign at my desk with just the words “Fight Inertia”. We are still early days in understanding what AI can do. I’m one of maybe 5 vibecoders in my business unit.
Sam Altman admits he was wrong on AI's timeline and says society and the economy will adapt more slowly "I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption, software businesses up for grabs right away, than it turned out to be." "I think I was wrong about a few things, but one in terms of the speed: the economy just has so much inertia." "People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way. I think this is actually a positive in many ways, and it's going to make this big transition go smoother and slower. I'm grateful for it." "But it means we've all been too ambitious on timelines. Even with this incredible technology, society and the economy will adapt more slowly."
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It’s important to remember just like people-cooling HVAC, datacenter computer-cooling HVAC load scales with the temperature outside. Would be a fun study to see how much CDD load is attributable to the machines!
Maybe should look at that datacenter driven HVAC development now that load growth is back on the table, but y'all not happy that it's leading to Ohio and West Virginia. 😂
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The odd thing about AI datacenters is there is no specific production tax. Oil and gas have very specific severance taxes, if oil goes higher then tax receipts go higher! It’s hard to see a several billion dollar facility be installed and the local gov not receive ratable taxes.
My default is to be pro commerce and pro local development, unless there are obvious harms. I think there can be a good affirmative reason to be pro development here, not just as a default stance. But it’s just not for the reasons the tech community likes to give (“we need to lead on AI!” “AI will find new cures” “we can’t let the Chinese win!”). Even tho data centers don’t create many jobs…if they fund investments, especially in new energy infra, that can be a driver of broader-based growth in local economies
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