GoTesla🚀 retweeted
$SPX — THE CHART DOES THE TALKING.
December 10, 2024. SPX was trading around 6,052 when I published my Super Cycle Degree monthly Elliott Wave count.
No hindsight. The roadmap was posted nearly two years ago.
Fast forward to October 2026.
SPX reached 7,844, and price tagged my 7,675.95 measured-move target virtually to the penny along the way.
That's nearly 1,800 points and 29.59% upside from where I published the original count.
This is why I spend years studying wave relationships, price, and Fibonacci measurements instead of chasing every headline.
I don't redraw history to fit the market. I update the count as price unfolds.
Original post attached. Updated monthly count attached.
Ignore the noise. Follow the wave count.
Now let's talk about what comes NEXT.
Dec 10, 2024 👇
xitter.cf/optionflys/status/1866…
$SPY $QQQ
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
Listen to me right now. I have the best news ever and all your portfolios will all be saved.
There is a 100% win-rate for the stock market AFTER mid-term elections.
Survive until November 3, 2026 (upcoming mid-terms) and you'll be rich.
• 1 month: 84% win-rate
• 3 month: 95% win-rate
• 6 month: 100% win-rate
• 12 month: 100% win-rate
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
为什么我比较相信台积电对AI需求的判断?
因为这家公司经历过的半导体危机,实在太多了。
2001年互联网泡沫破裂,台积电第三季度产能利用率一度跌到41%。
2008年金融海啸,资本支出同比减少26%。
2023年半导体库存调整,资本支出又从363亿美元降到304亿美元。
但即使在行业低谷,台积电也没有停止先进制程的研发和升级。
经历了这么多轮周期,它应该比谁都清楚产能过剩的代价。
所以,当台积电计划2026年投入600–640亿美元,而且预计2026–2028年的资本支出还将显著高于过去三年时,我觉得这个信号值得认真研究。
不知道大家有没有注意到魏哲家10月15日法说会上的一段话?
台积电不只向客户了解需求,还会找客户的客户核实,甚至派自己的团队去美国,实地了解数据中心建设进度和电力供应。
云厂商的资本支出、融资能力,以及其他关键零组件的供应情况,也都是它评估需求的重要依据。
我觉得台积电还有一个经常被低估的能力,就是它多年积累的产业情报和需求分析体系。
从芯片设计、客户产品规划,到先进制程导入和未来量产安排,它掌握的产业信息,可能比大多数外部研究机构都要完整。
而且,这些信息还可以交叉验证。
以前做过多年供应链跟电子制造,我很清楚客户的Forecast和真正落地的订单是两回事。
尤其是半导体这种重资产行业,设备买回来、厂房建起来,客户就算推迟订单,折旧也不会跟着停下来。
所以,我不太相信台积电只是听客户讲了几个AI故事,就敢拿出这么多真金白银扩产。😂
如果一家经历过这么多轮半导体周期、拥有如此多一线产业信息的公司,经过反复验证后仍然决定大规模投资,我觉得这个判断很值得重视。
AI股票有没有泡沫?当然可能有。
但AI股票估值过高,和AI需求本身是不是泡沫,我觉得还是应该分开讨论。
比起市场每天冒出来的各种泡沫故事,我还是更愿意多看看产业链的实际变化。
这只是我的个人观察,也欢迎大家分享不同看法。👀
$TSM $NVDA
$TSM doesn’t build fabs on a whim. We’ve weathered semiconductor cycle after cycle, and TSMC is still standing.
On the ABF substrate side alone, Liwei is hearing that customers have already put down deposits to secure capacity through 2032.
Do you seriously think Taiwan’s suppliers would expand without customers putting money on the table first?
We in Taiwan have a stronger survival instinct than most. We know what’s at stake.
So stop fantasizing about the AI bubble bursting. As long as customers still have the cash and are willing to put it down to fight for capacity, this bubble isn’t bursting.
$INTC $MRVL $FORM $ASX $AEHR $AMAT
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
华尔街看市场恐慌,看的是 VIX 恐慌指数。
但 VIX 只反映标普 500,单只股票,黄金和比特币都没有。
不过,顶级老交易员Larry Williams 发明了一个公式,能给任何品种算出它自己的恐慌指数,叫做 Williams Vix Fix。
TradingView 就有这个指标工具,可以免费使用。
在指标栏搜索 CM_Williams_Vix_Fix,选作者 ChrisMoody 的那个,名字后面是 Finds Market Bottoms。同名的社区版本很多,认准这个。
加上以后,图表下方会多出一排柱子,大部分是灰色,偶尔变成绿色。
它的算法只有一行:最近 22 根K线里的最高收盘价,到今天的最低价,跌了百分之几。
跌得越深,越急,柱子就越高。和 VIX 一样,市场越恐慌,数值越高。
绿柱是 ChrisMoody 加的标准:柱子高过自己的布林带上轨,或者达到最近 50 根K线最高值的 85%,就变绿。
意思是,这次的恐慌已经明显超过平时。
图 1 的英伟达,3 月 19 日到 30 日绿柱扎堆,3 月 30 日最低到 164 附近,这就是那段恐慌最重的时候。
这里有个容易看错的地方:绿柱出现,不代表马上见底。
图 2 的特斯拉,6 月下旬第一次绿柱扎堆时,股价还在 370 附近。7 月底财报后又跌到 297 附近,绿柱也更高了,从 16 左右升到接近 30。
所以,它更适合用来提醒“市场的恐慌已经严重了”,再配合价格止跌一起看,而不是一看到绿色就抄底。
设置里的 22 是 Larry 原版的回看周期,大约是一个月的交易日。其他几个参数是 ChrisMoody 定的变绿标准,默认就能用,换到波动很不一样的品种时可以微调。
VIX 只能告诉你大盘有多恐慌,Vix Fix 能让你看到手里这只股票有多恐慌👍
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
Every day on X, someone is calling for a market top or the next big crash. I guess it keeps people entertained.
Meanwhile, take a look at this SMH Elliott Wave count on a 2-week semi-log chart, going back nearly two decades.
The bigger picture tells a very different story, one that's hard to ignore.
Corrections are part of the process. They don't automatically end a bull market.
This isn't a trader's chart. It's a long-term investor's roadmap.
Let price do the talking.
$SMH $SPX $SPY $QQQ
Replying to @MelvinInvests
When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined. We saw this with lithium batteries and solar, for example.
SpaceX is a rare counter-example, where its mass to orbit is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the rest of the world, BUT China now does a majority of non-SpaceX mass to orbit. SpaceX is an anomaly in the matrix.
Maybe RAM will be different, but RAM was a low margin commodity only ~3 years ago. LP5 and LP6 are designed to a common standard that China seems to be solving fast.
Newer HBM architectures and things like an SRAM layer below logic and 3D stacking RAM on top of logic while finding a way to keep the logic cooled will be harder to solve.
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
马斯克昨天发帖说,他感觉SpaceX 未来价值超过当前全球经济规模几个数量级。
这边,网名叫「Masa’s Son」(孙正义儿子)的账号,直接贴了一张马斯克过去「说到的」和「做到的」对照表,确实有点残酷!
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
ELON MUSK REACTS TO — “FIRST COMPANY” BETWEEN $TSLA AND SPACEX TO REACH $10 TRILLION “BUYS THE OTHER” 👀
He says it’s an interesting idea !
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
SpaceX Board: Can we merge before Tesla becomes a global robotaxi company?
Tesla Board: Can we merge before SpaceX becomes a global internet service provider?
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
SpaceX一家公司
约等于中国国家航天局+
军方酒泉、西昌、太原、文昌发射场+
航天科技集团一、五、六和八院+解放军航天部队
中国电信+联通+微博+DeepSeek
如果再加上规划的数据中心和芯片厂
他还可以是台积电+国家智算中心
如果算上特斯拉...
那马斯克目前已经积攒了全部的手牌
一旦机器人量产
他就是诸侯王,手下可以无尽暴兵
资本家有史以来最高的山 最长的河
纵观资本主义商业史
他的胜利无人能及
马克思复活都得改写资本论
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
Perfect follow through and #ES_F does same thing over and over: Elevator down, bear trap/Failed Breakdown, rip. 7803 reclaim was our long trigger given live ystd. Targets were 7839 (hit), 7845 (hit)
Plan: Ride runner until we do it over. 7858 next, then 7872. 7839, 7822=support
Replying to @AdamMancini4
Closing update #ES_F: Today is printing trade after trade. The 7816-20 reclaim long was the 1st trade this morning with 7839, 7845 targets. We hit both. The 7803 reclaim was second with 7816 target. Hit. 7845 is next now. Newsletter out soon with next entries
Starlink coming to KLM!
📰 News: KLM has selected SpaceX $SPCX Starlink for fleet connectivity. CEO Marjan Rintel announced today that free high-speed Wi-Fi will roll out on intercontinental flights from mid-2027, with the full fleet targeted by mid-2028. Sister airline Air France is already flying Starlink.
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
Save this. This is the most important post you'll ever see.
With BOTH the 10-year yields and the U.S. dollar rising, here is how to plan for the worst-case scenario. I've experienced this market scenario already in my life.
Markets kept making all-time highs for 4 - 5 months, and then a -57% crash happened in the markets. But rising yields and dollar rising does NOT crash the markets alone. Something UNDERNEATH is typically the trigger.
The 2026 - 2027 triggers would be:
1. Private credit - this is the scarier one in my opinion. Seven major platforms (Blue Owl, Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, and Blackstone) have capped or blocked investor withdrawals. $4.6 billion is trapped basically.
2. Auto loan delinquencies hit a record - 5.5% at 90+ days, worse than 2008 peak (5.3%). The consumer is cracking at the bottom.
3. Commercial real estate is at record deliquicieis - office CMBS delinquiency at 12.3%, higher than 2008 crisis.
4. Corporate bankruptcies at 16 year highs - 372 large filings through mid-2026. Small business bankrupties up 50% as well.
5. S&P 500 is looking a lie right now - every sector fell in Sept except for tech - banks, utilities, equal weight S&P 500, only a few BIG tech names are holding up the markets
6. Six banks have failed in 2026 - small ones, but the most in any year this decade.
I find that the pattern is the same throughout our history; rates stay high, something that was relying on cheap money can't handle it, then that thing breaks, the break spreads to other things, and by the time the Fed cuts rates to fix it, the damage is already done.
So how do you prepare for this since we cannot TIME a top?
1. Raise cash gradually - don't sell everything. Don't go all-in on a few names. Raise cash from work and you'll have the opportunity of a life time waiting for you when the dip comes
2. Buy the 10 year - a 5.35% risk free yield is the highest in 24 years. You can park cash in short term Treasuries (SHV, BIL, SGOV) and get paid 5%+ while you wait. My wife and I have started buying 10 year as well.
3. Watch the leaders, not the index - the S&P is being held up by 5-7 names. When $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT start breaking lower on volume, that's your signal the last pillar is cracking. The rest of the market is already weak.
4. Avoid the junk, or size appropriately - small caps, unprofitable tech, high debt companies, anything that needs to refinance soon. The Russell 2000 has a third of its constituents classified as zombie companies. These get destroyed when credit tightens.
5. Quality over momentum - if you're staying long, own companies with no debt, strong cash flow, and pricing power. Think $GOOGL, $AMGN, $BRK. Companies that don't need to borrow money at 5%+ don't care about rates.
6. Don't short the top - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In 2007 the S&P rallied 5% for 4 months after the 10Y peaked. Being early on a short is the same as being wrong. Can hedge with defensives instead and/or raise cash.
7. Have a plan before you need one - decide now what you'll do if the S&P drops 10%, 20%, 30%. Write it down. When panic hits, you execute the plan instead of making emotional decisions.
The goal isn't to predict the crash. It's to survive it with enough capital to buy the bottom and become a multi-millionaire.
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
This pattern is called “world’s first multi-trillionaire.”
$TSLA
GoTesla🚀 retweeted
Do you remember around 20 years ago when there were 20 different cell phones to choose from and almost everyone you knew had a different phone?
Fast forward 20 years and almost everybody you know has an iPhone..
Same thing will happen to cars.
20 years from now, everyone around you will be driving a @tesla.
It’s already happening. Start paying attention around you when you drive. I just sat at a red light, and out of the 6 cars that were around me, 4 were teslas.
On the other side? 3 out of 5 were teslas.
Everyone today that’s telling you they’d never buy a Tesla are the same people who wouldn’t give up their blackberry.


































