Bleeds red, dreams of the treble, and believes every referee is secretly a City fan.
London
Joined August 2022
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Cheap CfDs that haven't been built don't set the price today. ROC expiry removes subsidy, it doesn't add a MW. My question stands: where do pre-AR6 projects sit in the NESO queue, and what do EV drivers pay at the plug in the next shock?
History is repeating through the delivery system, not just price: 15-year grid connection waits, 3.6-year NSIP consents, 58% judicial review rates. This is what blocks AI data centre investment before it starts.
200 years ago cheap plentiful energy led to increased prosperity for all..
We abandoned expensive intermittent renewables for coal (and then oil, gas and nuclear)
Looks like history is repeating itself. Do we want the prosperity we're told AI will bring? Or prefer to be cold, weak, poor and Net Zero?
George City FTW retweeted
💶🇮🇪 𝗪𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗲𝘀𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 (𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗔𝘃𝗴)
= €278.87/MWh on 19-Oct-2026
Highest Price = Ireland (€278.87)
Lowest Price = Norway (NO2) (€177.64)
No surprise. The NESO connection queue I flagged months ago has grown tenfold in five years to 700+ GW. Control room staff manage the consequences; leadership manages the targets. Those are not the same job.
A new independent review has found employees at Britain’s electricity grid warning that the net zero transition is making it harder to keep the lights on
The investigation found “high levels of stress and concern” among grid operators “given the challenges of the net zero transition and increased reliance on renewables” and a “significant disconnect” between control room staff and executive leadership.
#CostOfNetZero
George City FTW retweeted
The European Commission has approved plans by Italy to introduce a price cap for 18 months, which could cut the impact of gas-fired generation on power prices by up to 10%, EU and industry sources told Montel this weekend. montelnews.com/news/fd942d37…
Fair point on water. But the bottleneck sits upstream of planning conditions: NSIP consenting averages 3.6 years, grid connection waits reach 15. Add bespoke supply obligations without fixing that and the buildout just goes elsewhere. Where's the balance?
Data centres do pose problems, not just their vast need of power - but also water.
The right thing to do is make them provide answers to both these issues in the planning process. We should not allow them to simply plug in to our power and water grids - and drain what we currently have. That will create shortages and price rises and would be simply unfair - data centres need to pay their own way, provide for their own massive power and water needs.
It’s just sensible.
buff.ly/IHXglNR
Global mine supply down 2% this year, first decline since 2017, just as electrification demand keeps climbing. Where is the supply response meant to come from? New mines take 10-15 years from discovery to first production.
The metals industry can’t consolidate its way out of the current and future market supply deficits, Vale base metals CEO says in #LMEweek. Global mine supply seen -2% this year, its first decline since 2017
Interesting that the gold is all ETFs. GLD and IAU are paper claims, not allocated metal. For a portfolio built on distrust of fiat, I'd want the bars in a vault, not a ticker.
I'd judge it on consumption emissions. With c.55% coal in China's grid, every tonne of steel we import carries more embodied CO2 than if we'd made it here. We didn't cut emissions, we relocated them - along with the jobs.
Permanent is right. NESO's queue is 700+ GW with waits up to 15 years. I see nothing in the reform timetable that fixes this before the early 2030s. AI investment goes where the power is.
I'd separate wealth from skills. Capital moves at a keystroke. The harder loss is mid-career engineers and licensing specialists with credible destinations offering 10-year residency and stable fiscal terms.
The latest Saltus Wealth Index Report has found that 30% of high net worth individuals could consider moving abroad, with 8% actively exploring a permanent move within the next 12 months.
Mike Stimpson, partner at Saltus, said the research showed a significant shift in attitudes towards leaving Britain.
“People do not uproot their lives over a single tax announcement, and our research does not suggest that Britain’s wealth creators are heading for the exits en masse,” he said.
"What it does show, however, is a marked change in the way people are thinking. Leaving the UK has moved from a distant idea to something that a growing minority are actively testing against their family, financial and personal circumstances.”
I'd push back on the 'quiet retreat' framing. In the North Sea it is simpler: effective tax above 75%, JR on consented fields, 70,000 jobs gone since 2016. Capital left, demand did not. That is policy, not peak demand.
"Oil & gas capital investment is down 25% from its peak in 2016." 🛢️ Mark Campanale, @CarbonBubble says European oil majors are quietly contracting, paying out dividends and buybacks instead of funding new projects, as EVs eat into future demand.
Watch more on @WeDontHaveTime
Both calls are testable. UK EV share is flat near 16-17% despite high pump prices because electricity costs track gas. On the surplus I would not bet against supply responses. Blas late on the first, possibly right on the second.
Markets adapted in ways conventional balances underestimated, says @JavierBlas
Consumers will increasingly consider EVs as high fuel prices make alternatives more attractive, he says.
I doubt that.
A postwar surplus may be substantial, he says.
I doubt that.
The grid connection prioritisation bill is the interesting bit here. I'd like to see Danish connection times compared to NESO's queue. Deciding which demand connects first is what high wind penetration actually requires.
George City FTW retweeted
Tankers have aged like fine wine! 🍷
Today a 10-yr-old VLCC at $180 mil costs 38% more than a new one ($130 mil, delivered 2029).
A 5-yr-old VLCC at $210m costs 62% more.
The last time secondhand ships cost more than news ones was 2008, just before GFC.
More Gulf oil producers are buying their own tankers, which pushes up prices further.
The vintage that matters: available NOW. (h/t @PotenPartners)
George City FTW retweeted
Gulf oil spills rose last quarter during one of the most dangerous times for shipping in the region in recent history.
Windward's assessment, cited by @tradewindsnews, is a signal worth watching for anyone underwriting, insuring or routing vessels through Gulf waters right now. okt.to/fzAP2d
The copper math is stark. IEA scenarios need millions of tonnes of new supply by 2035 and the discovery pipeline is thin. Anyone comparing permitting timelines in the US, Chile and the DRC knows the constraint is process, not geology.
I'd like to see where the £93-133bn of savings come from when the replacement generation never gets built. NESO's queue is 700+ GW, 300+ GW unlikely to proceed, waits up to 15 years. Cancel baseload first and gas fills the gap. Cheaper, apparently.
Prof Steve Thomas: "To fund the Burnham Govt's priorities, abandon HPC, Sizewell C & Wylfa. UK’s 3 new nuclear projects [all 3] now depend on public money, above all from the National Wealth Fund, which has committed up to £36.6bn to Sizewell C alone...1/2
policybrief.org/briefs/to-fu…
Exxon 14.8 to 23.45, BP 3.73 to 8.93. War margins, not operational gains. I'd expect buybacks and LNG expansion, not North Sea. Effective rate above 75% with the levy has priced us out of the running.
IMF is right to warn on prices. Our gas storage covers 2-3 days. Germany has 90. Two thirds of our jet fuel comes from the Middle East. The Ofgem cap does the rest.
IMF chief Georgieva warns Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure could hit the global economy, after a week of attacks on Aramco HQ, Dhahran and a Riyadh refinery, with a high risk of more energy price rises. #IMF #SaudiArabia #Oil #Houthis
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N…
