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Beijing’s expansion of its nuclear forces is a major structural shift of our time 🧵
China is transforming into a nuclear superpower
And yet so far only think tanks and congressional committees seem to have been paying much attention
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?si=RxtQ…
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2026 “The fault lines in our world are widening. Cracks have become canyons”
2025 “We have entered an age of reckless disruption and relentless human suffering”
2024 “We are edging towards the unimaginable, a power keg that risks engulfing the world”
“Our world is in a whirlwind”
- Antonio Guterres opens the UN General Debate
He must be feeling like a broken record - here are his warnings from previous years 👇
2023 “Our world is becoming unhinged”
2022 “Our world is in big trouble”
2021 “I am here to sound the alarm”
2020 “Our world is struggling, stressed and seeking real leadership and action”
2019 “We are living in a world of disquiet”
2018 “Trust is at a breaking point”
2017 “Our world is in trouble”
Evidently the frontier labs themselves need alignment.
The Shangri-la Dialogue is usually a mutual bashing exercise between the US and China. This year was different.
youtu.be/MtkxOhLucTo?si=cyWS…
Richard Walker retweeted
What didn't get covered by most media around the Trump-Xi visit: China's fast growing nuclear capability, which I don't think most people really fully understand. @rbsw talks to ~half a dozen experts in this 45-minute must-watch explainer: bit.ly/dw-chinanukes
Richard Walker retweeted
This is another great documentary by @DeutscheWelle ‘s @rbsw Richard Walker, on China‘s growing nuclear arsenal and how it fits into the overall strategy. With insights from Zhou Bo, @matthewkroenig, Sarah Kirchberger and others.
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?is=Dt6M…
Beijing’s expansion of its nuclear forces is advancing:
- Very fast by historical standards
- Not fast enough for the news cycle
So here's our @dwnews deep dive:
- Why Xi is doing this
- China's advanced missiles
- China's nuclear doctrine
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?si=RxtQ…
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China's nuclear expansion
With input from:
@james_acton32
@BrianTHart
Sarah Kirchberger
@MatthewKroenig
@manpreetsethi01
@zhaot2005
Zhou Bo
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?si=RxtQ…
3/3
For decades, China had a minimal nuclear force.
Under Xi Jinping, it’s been surging warhead numbers and building one of the world’s most advanced missile arsenals.
But why?
What are these weapons for?
What is Xi preparing for?
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?is=kyub…
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China’s historic nuclear expansion
Pt 1: Xi’s strategy
Pt 2: China’s missiles & why they matter
Pt 3: Doctrine
With
@james_acton32
@BrianTHart
Sarah Kirchberger
@MatthewKroenig
@manpreetsethi01
@zhaot2005
Zhou Bo
youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?is=17Xr…
2/2
Richard Walker retweeted
Could the US handle a Taiwan contingency at a time like this?
A Chinese quarantine of Taiwan would present the US & the world with huge dilemmas about how to respond
Walking through how a scenario could unfold with @RushDoshi
youtu.be/lLUm7CHCEFo?is=u1RN…
Richard Walker retweeted
Most Taiwan analyses focuses on invasion or blockade scenarios. But the quarantine - which is arguably more likely and far less studied - needs greater attention.
Below, a link to my conversation on a PRC quarantine of Taiwan with @DW's Richard Walker.
Could the US handle a Taiwan contingency at a time like this?
A Chinese quarantine of Taiwan would present the US & the world with huge dilemmas about how to respond
Walking through how a scenario could unfold with @RushDoshi
youtu.be/lLUm7CHCEFo?is=u1RN…
Could the US handle a Taiwan contingency at a time like this?
A Chinese quarantine of Taiwan would present the US & the world with huge dilemmas about how to respond
Walking through how a scenario could unfold with @RushDoshi
youtu.be/lLUm7CHCEFo?is=u1RN…
A structured look at factors influencing how this war will unfold with @NicoleGrajewski of @CarnegieEndow
- Goals of the US, Israel & Iran
- Strategies & means
- Constraints that could limit their actions
- What to watch out for in the days ahead
youtu.be/zxmP4TAwkOE?si=TjvS…
Trump embraces regime change in his statement on Iran
To Iranian military:
"Lay down your weapons... or face certain death"
To Iranian people:
"When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take."
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Interesting to consider Rubio’s invocation of “civilisation” 12 times in his Munich speech in this light — as seeking a vibe that could make MAGA care about the western alliance.
Fascinating article from @ChrisJKennedy on how American neocons like Marco Rubio are adapting to the Trump era.
JUST NOW
Germany calls on China to engage in nuclear arms control
Foreign minister Wadephul speaking in Australia as New Start expires:
Also interesting from Alice Weidel this week: criticising Donald Trump for breaking election promises of a non-interventionist foreign policy
Bemerkenswert: Alice Weidel kritisiert @realDonaldTrump öffentlich sehr deutlich. Er habe Wahlversprechen gebrochen, sich nicht einzumischen. Dem neurechten Vorfeld gefällt das bereits. Man war schon lange unzufrieden mit dem transatlantischen Anbiedern. xitter.cf/bruno_wolters/status/2…
The AfD leader dismissed Friedrich Merz's meeting with Narendra Modi as a "sightseeing tour"
