
R. Scott Raynovich, Principal Analyst @futuriom following #cloud #security #networking #techstocks. Ex. Light Reading, Red Herring. Views my own
Bozeman, MT
Joined April 2008
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Just put in an order to buy one share each of $META and $AMZN at $99 each just for chuckles. Will hold forever. Will post updates here. #markets #techstocks @aschmitt @LaMonicaBuzz
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Current valuations for AI infra plays (across semis/hardware, industrials and data center owners), for those willing to brave the waters here.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Paul Tudor Jones says US stocks are 252% of GDP - vs. 170% at the dot-com peak - and a 35% mean reversion would wipe out 89% of GDP
"We're clearly in a sovereign debt bubble"
The trader who called the 1987 crash told "Invest Like The Best" why both AI and this market worry him:
> "The Genie's Out Of The Bottle" (1:30):
- After he warned about AI on CNBC, Warren Buffett sent him a note: "I agree with you 100%, but the genie's out of the bottle." At a closed-door conference, the consensus on AI safety: labs will act "when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident"
> Watermark Everything (5:01):
- His one fix: "demand that all AI is watermarked" - and "make it a felony if someone knowingly violates that three times"
> The IPO Wave (16:11):
- The 2000-02 bear market came from the 1999-2000 IPO flood. Next year's planned IPOs: "five, six percent of market cap" - after a decade of buybacks shrinking supply. That money "is going to come out of existing tech stocks"
> 252% Of GDP (17:56):
- 1929: 65%
- 1987: 85-90%
- 2000: 170%
- Today: 252%
A 30-35% mean reversion is a wealth hit of "89% of GDP" - and capital gains taxes, 10% of revenue, "go to zero"
Every day I break down what the smart money really thinks about AI
Our latest @Futuriom #SASE survey shows that Platform Trends Remain Strong
via @forbes forbes.com/sites/rscottrayno…
The “AI is bigger than all previous infrastructure build outs” data is well-distributed now. To those paying attention.
Um. Does anybody think that possibly a message is being sent. By certain foreign governments holding U.S. bonds?
Just seems like too much of a coincidence today. #bonds #china @dampedspring
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
KeyBanc (upgrading $INTC and $AMD to Overweight) says Intel/AMD are largely sold out of 2026 server CPU capacity and expects AMD to see 50%+ server CPU growth this year. (via @TMTBreakout)
I'm wondering about the world-changing #AgenticAI use case for restaurant reservations.
When I go to make a reservation, it typically takes me about 10 seconds and isn't that difficult and is integrated in me browsing which restaurant I want to go to. What am I missing?
🤯🤯🤯
MIT mathematically proved that AI will destroy the democracy.
A Nobel-winning MIT economist published a terrifying paper called "Automation and Repression"
As AI and automation replace human labor, wealth concentrates heavily in the hands of a tiny group of capital owners. Inequality skyrockets.
When inequality hits a critical mass, workers realize they are being crushed and the threat of a popular revolt spikes.
Faced with that threat, the ruling elite are forced to make a choice.
They can redistribute the wealth through taxes, or they can use force to keep people down.
The paper mathematically proves a dark reality: there is a direct, inescapable link between automation and political repression.
The more capital accumulates through AI, the more the elite prefer repression over redistribution.
Why? Because sharing the wealth cuts into their power. Funding a police state protects it.
It gets worse.
The authors modeled what happens when an economy starts inside a clean, stable democracy.
As automation advances and capital concentrates at the top, the math shows that the elite eventually find democracy to be a liability.
They stop supporting democratic systems. They back a coup. They install a repressive system just to protect their automated wealth.
Nobody is voting to end democracy.
The technology’s economic incentives just make authoritarian control the logical next step for survival.
Read: Cisco’s Next Challenge: Reinventing SIEM For The AI Era via @forbes @Cisco $CSCO @jpatel41 @ChuckRobbins
forbes.com/sites/rscottrayno…
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Cisco is adding Supermicro AI servers, both liquid and air cooled, to its Secure AI Factory with Nvidia. They ship in October as tested bundles with Cisco switching, security and monitoring. Jeetu Patel says Cisco will support "every architectural variance." Cisco stock is up close to 45% this year.
Cisco is now selling servers against Dell and HPE. It does not need to win on the server itself. It needs the server order to bring the networking order with it.
@Cisco @Supermicro_SMCI @axios
axios.com/2026/08/25/exclusi…
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
.@AMD more than doubles its data center #revenue, but its stock falls on concerns over rising capex and margin pressure bit.ly/4pY5JXz @thecubetv @Mike_Wheatley “AMD’s numbers would have been unthinkable a few years ago, with revenue up 50%, gross…”
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
I can’t wait for someone to start bundling subprime GPUs with the SOTA ones into a special financial package and then goes public via a SPAC.
Incredible. Jensen is completing the circle.
- Bankers don’t like GPUs as collateral because the depreciation is unpredictable
- It’s unpredictable because a new GPU can obsolete an old one
- Jensen knows his own roadmap
- so he’s offering depreciation insurance to the banks
- the depreciation insurance (up to 25%) helps the banks get marginal deals over the line
Speculation
- Nvidia will also advise the banks on “reference designs” for datacenters that will make them fungible
- Having them be fungible means that the debt can repackaged into Asset Backed Securities, Collateralized Loan Obligations and Collateralized Debt Obligation (ABS, CLOs and CDOs from 2008 haha)
- This allows tranching to get investment grade ratings on the debt so that it can be resold to pension funds and insurance firms
- It also allows the banks to trade idiosyncratic project specific credit risk for sector wide credit risk
So Jensen is trying to get his customers the same cost of financing as real estate rather than venture equity.
This is going to move the data center game out of the VCs and into the big leagues.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Intel is selling $15B in stock, reportedly upsized to $20B at $95 a share. Roughly 3% dilution covering about 75% of this year's capex.
Raising equity instead of debt is the right call, and Intel hasn't been able to do it on terms like these in years, so the market is clearly buying the AI story. What I want next is external foundry revenue with customer names attached. Still waiting.
newsroom.intel.com/corporate…






























