@ratwave

Technologist, Investor, Foreign Policy Realist

Edgemont
Joined December 2008
Meet the Jetsons
Fun fact. In its final stage, BYD new factory in Zhengzhou will cover 50 square miles, which is larger than San Francisco's surface at 46.9 square miles. Watch its sheer size.
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Meet the Jetsons
🇨🇳 China unveils world's smallest CT scanner Weighing just 6 kg — versus around 2 tons for a typical hospital CT scanner — the Xtomo-Cube can peer inside small objects such as fossils, snail shells and even medicine capsules, the SCMP reports. Here’s what makes it stand out: 🔶 The new CT scanner delivers 80-micrometer resolution — roughly the width of a human hair 🔶 It utilizes just 200 watts and can run from a portable power bank 🔶 Its X-ray source, detector and rotating platform were all developed and manufactured in China The researchers say the scanner could be a game-changer for field archaeology and paleontology, as well as for universities and research labs.
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Meet the Flintstones. And they are us.
America had 16 copper smelters in 1976. Today it has only two. We still mine a million tonnes of copper a year, but a third of it leaves the country for refining. Last year we imported twice the refined copper we made. China floods the market with refining capacity, so refining pays almost nothing anywhere else. That's a hard problem to solve. Smelters mostly stay open by selling byproducts, and some only with government support. @nrg91720 might have found a way around that. His startup, Determinant Materials, says it can skip the smelter by sorting ground-up ore with flowing liquid, in small refineries at the mine. We do the same at Solugen, where we make smaller versions of chemical plants that sit next to our customers. If Nikhil pulls it off, the US could again own its copper refining. He explains how in this interview with @jrwolfe: goingdirect.substack.com/p/7…
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Reaping what we’ve sown. This has been going on so long one has to wonder about the people in charge. Arrogance? Stupidity? Abscense of leadership? Something malign? Curious minds want to know.
Let me tell you how this likely happened America’s defense corporations are hopelessly exposed to the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) in a multitude of ways. It’s hard to imagine that the same companies that build fighter jets, missiles, and radar for the US and its allies, also depend on official business inside China. Lockheed Martin, which makes the F-35, has registered entities in the PRC. An “entity” is a legal company such as a subsidiary, a factory, a sales office, or a joint venture. It has a Chinese business license, a Chinese bank account, and has to follow Chinese laws. The company also employs personnel who are listed on the Chinese state insurance roll. China requires every formal employer to register workers in the national social insurance system so we can see how many personnel inside China they officially employ. In other words, the Chinese government has a roster of every employee at Lockheed and through the National Security and Data Law, has legal power over the parent company that they work for. Their physical presence in China creates several types of risks: > Information risk People and computers inside China can see designs, shipping schedules, supplier lists, or test data. Chinese law can compel them to share it. > Leverage risk Beijing can threaten the local company or its employees (“pay a fine, lose your license, or help us”) to get what it wants from the parent company in the US > Supply chain risk Buying metals and parts that China manufactures presents huge vulnerabilities. Combined with local entities and staff, it becomes easier for China to see and squeeze the system This stolen F-35 cockpit canopy came from Australia, which like Canada, is highly compromised and penetrated. From South Korea it was diverted to Hong Kong, which sadly is no longer secure as a hub. Commercial tracking data, freight-forwarder systems, and the presence of PRC-linked logistics partners make high-value military shipments visible. Given Lockheed’s legal entities and employees inside the PRC, the intelligence picture gets even clearer. This is how “they” knew the schedule. It’s long past due to gut the foothold our defense companies have inside the adversary’s system. Btw Lockheed Martin, according to our data, is actually a lot less exposed to the PRC than Boeing, RTX (Raytheon) and Honeywell is.
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The Matrix skill uploading. Cool.
Skild AI made the famous and cheap Chinese Unitree robot self-play football for 140 years. The result? Now the robot is able to play football. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the first case of Matrix skill downloading.
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Meet the Jetsons
Driverless buses and robotaxis are now running in pilot zones across several 🇨🇳Chinese cities! These self-driving vehicles carry passengers safely without any human driver! Smart urban mobility is being tested and rolled out step by step! This is what happens when your country invests in technologies instead of funding wars!
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Cars may get the headlines, but look at robot net exports. See the trend? @JoinFAI
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‘Full industrial supply chain’
#ChinaNeoMake: A brake disc for the Airbus A320, once priced like a luxury car, is now light enough to lift with one hand and cheap enough to use across industries. China's homegrown carbon brake tech broke a foreign monopoly and brought prices down. globaltimes.cn/page/202609/1…
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Mark Rosenblatt retweeted
Can the US build a DJI? We tore down @DJIGlobal 's 2019 and 2023 Mini drones and priced every part. It's the first public cost breakdown of either. Here's what we learned: DJI earns SaaS-like margins on hardware: ~79% gross margin on a $139 parts BOM. For comparison, Apple makes 53% on the iPhone. We estimate US-sourced parts would cost 2-3x more, cutting margins to 37-58%. The result: US drone makers can't compete in consumer, and focus on premium enterprise and defense. Sovereign silicon: DJI is building its autonomy lead starting at the chip. In 2019, the drone's key chips were American and Dutch. By 2023, all four were DJI's own. Custom silicon jumped from 1% to 26% of the parts bill. Nobody else can buy these chips. One notable exception is the GPS chip, still from Swiss firm @ublox . Chinese alternatives exist, but DJI's flight software is built around u-blox. In modern hardware, lock-in lives in the software. "Cheap China" is an outdated perception. DJI paid more for lighter Chinese batteries, then spent the saved grams on sensors and compute. Their first priority is capability per gram, not cost. Better battery tech → lighter weight → more onboard autonomy. US-made @SkydioHQ has better autonomy, but needs a heavier drone and a $399 chip to get it. We lost the war on cost. The next battlefield is autonomy. DJI's real moat is speed. Shenzhen gets new circuit boards in hours, the US in weeks. "Move fast and break things" works for hardware in China, not America. Banning DJI doesn't close that gap. Faster iteration does. We ran this teardown with our FDEs and Atlas, our engineering agent platform. See our full analysis: arenaphysica.com/publication… Thanks to @JonathonPSine @AkhilIyer1, Maggie Gray and Shaun Donovan for reading drafts of this.
Can the US build a DJI? We bought a 2019 Mavic Mini and a 2023 Mini 4 Pro, tore them down in our hardware lab, and put them under a bench microscope to find out. What we found: arenaphysica.com/publication….
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“Open models are going to be the substrate for everyone else in the world outside of the few true frontier AI labs, to harness an acceleration in software engineering and other computational practices. This represents a substantial source of soft power, influence, and potential for the organizations that enable this broad access to transformative intelligence.’ interconnects.ai?utm_source=…
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Excellent
Pretty cool that General Motors was able to retool a car factory to make the outer shells of the Patriot missiles. They've managed to make the delivery to Lockheed just 22 days after signing the contract. (22 days!!!!! We still got it...🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸) Lockheed says this work normally takes months or years for the previous supplier (General Dynamics) to fulfill. There's a strain of neoliberal thinking that says if domestic carmakers can’t compete, they should just be allowed to fail. No bailouts. Just let Japan or China make cars because of comparative advantage or whatever. Imagine if we had believed that automobile manufacturing was something to offshore. It's now clear that the argument for preserving that industrial base is not simply nostalgia for a previous bygone era. It simply is the case that you cannot improvise precision manufacturing overnight once it has disappeared.
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A 🇨🇳Chinese company has created a new transparent display that sticks right onto glass! Installation only takes two steps: line up the flexible film, then smooth it with a squeegee! It turns plain glass into a high-definition screen, showing 3D visuals like waterfalls and jellyfish! No complex construction or pro teams needed!
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Every note perfect
An 18-year-old girl, a classical guitar, and one of Paganini’s most famous technical challenges. Haruna Miyagawa performs Caprice No. 24 with remarkable finesse, bringing its intricate variations and arpeggios, originally written for violin, into the world of classical guitar.
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Meet the Jetsons Not coming to California anytime soon.
China's next-gen 400 km/h CR450 high-speed trains have finished the mandatory 600,000 km pre-service trial, equal to 15 trips around Earth's equator. Under Chinese rules, all-new HSR trains must pass this test and every performance criterion before carrying passengers.
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“One side is practicing industrial policy. The other thinks it is saving the planet.” Houston, we have a problem.
A must read from @Doranimated and @ProfBShaffer In its competition with China, the United States holds a natural advantage: abundant oil and cheap natural gas. Reliable energy powers factories, data centers, transportation networks, and military operations. It lets the United States combine technological innovation with industrial scale, an advantage that China, dependent on imported oil and gas, cannot easily reproduce. But China has found a partial answer: the Net Zero movement. For years, a large, influential, and well-funded Western network has campaigned to restrict the production and use of fossil fuels. Many of the same campaigning organizations also oppose nuclear power, the largest source of emissions-free electricity in the United States. Climate advocates seek to persuade the American government to surrender its energy advantage voluntarily. Beijing agrees. Over the past two decades, therefore, an alliance in all but name has taken shape. On one side stands the Chinese party-state. On the other stands a Western climate community much broader than its activist core: environmental organizations and the philanthropies that finance them, research institutes and international agencies, journalists who cover the transition to renewable energy, officials drawn from the movement’s own ranks, and the investors, asset managers, and financial institutions whose returns depend on the policies the movement secures. tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
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In Orbit City, manufacturing advances quickly. In Bedrock, where we live, it's a struggle to get financing, much less build.
"Robots building robots" is now real! UBTECH's smart factory is running in Liuzhou, China. One industrial humanoid robot every 10 minutes. 10,000+ units planned per year.
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If OSC needs to step in, this is a very bad sign. Can your spell Moral Hazard?
This is frustrating. OSC is supposed to provide capital to companies that are both critical to our industrial base AND cannot access capital to expand from private markets. I do not believe that AI infrastructure companies have any issue raising private capital right now. wsj.com/tech/ai/pentagon-in-…
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The Jetsons
✨🇨🇳This is China’s remote operation cabin for construction machinery. No more working outdoors in sweltering heat — workers operate all equipment right from an air-conditioned room.
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Mark Rosenblatt retweeted
🇨🇳 China - August 26 - BEV Trajectory 45.3% BEV 19.9% PHEV (of which 5.3%p were EREV) 34.8% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 37.1% BEV 20.4% PHEV (of which 5.3%p were EREV) 42.5% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Ga…
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America needs allies
It's hard to emphasize the industrial might of a fully developed China that is transitioning its entire economy to high value added industries. It'll be Germany or Japan at their peak multiplied by 14. Enough to supply the entire planet at unprecedently accessible prices.
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