Bitcoin position trader
Joined December 2025
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RaSu retweeted
Searches for cryptocurrencies on Google are falling again.
Even with the September rally, interest in crypto on Google has started declining once more.
Search activity has returned to levels not seen since early 2025 and, at times, is approaching levels last seen in 2022.
Price recovered, but retail attention did not follow.
Check the sentiment data for your cryptocurrency right now 👇
app.alphractal.com/?utm_sour…
RaSu retweeted
Historically, Bitcoin’s major market bottoms have occurred when the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio fell to extreme levels, indicating that Long-Term Holders were realizing significantly worse outcomes than Short-Term Holders.
RaSu retweeted
IMAGINE the SMELL if Bitcoin actually capitulates into Q4 and bottoms on the first week of October.
ALL OF THE BULL WILL HAVE TO APOLOGIZE TO @benjamincowen!
RaSu retweeted
$BTC
Following up on my previous post about the three relief rallies within major Bitcoin bear-market structures, I want to highlight another interesting detail.
When we measure these rallies, there is often a clear progression in their magnitude: the first is smaller, the second becomes stronger, and the third tends to be the strongest relief rally before the major bearish continuation.
Looking across the major structures:
2011: +45% → +70% → +79%
2013–15: +55% → +60% → +84%
2017–18: +30% → +40% → +68%
2021–22: +25.0% → +30.1% → +40.0%
Current: +21.3% → +37.5% → +42.2%
The percentages are obviously not identical from cycle to cycle, but the character of the progression is what matters:
smaller → stronger → strongest → bearish continuation.
This is also why I don’t automatically interpret a strong recovery inside a bear structure as the beginning of a new bull market. Historically, the largest relief rally can appear very close to the transition into the next major bearish phase.
Fact:
Historically, every major Bitcoin bear-market structure has featured three relief rallies during Phase 1 of the correction — before the transition into Phase 2 and the next major bearish continuation.
I’ve marked them with red arrows on all 4 charts so you can clearly pay attention to this recurring pattern.
$BTC
RaSu retweeted
THE BLOCK: Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz says if the Clarity Act fails to advance in Tuesday's Senate vote, the U.S. may not get crypto legislation "for a long, long time — if ever."
Novogratz warned that further delays could force more of the crypto industry offshore.
RaSu retweeted
Capitulation is no where to be seen.
Bitcoin holders just started to realized losses on a yearly basis, -136K Bitcoin.
However, previous cycles bottomed at -1.3M and -3.7M Bitcoin of annual realized losses.
Either this is the most benign cycle in terms of realized losses or there's still a lot of room to go.
RaSu retweeted
THIS IS THE MILDEST BITCOIN BEAR MARKET ON RECORD.
49% drawdown.
Every previous bear market bottomed far deeper.
2018: minus 84%. 2022: minus 77%.
By depth this cycle is breaking every historical pattern.
But the clock tells a different story.
Previous bear markets ran roughly one third longer before hitting their final lows.
Two possibilities now define this entire cycle.
Either institutional infrastructure has permanently raised the floor and the bottom is already in at minus 49%.
Or the timeline hasn't finished playing out yet and more time is needed before the real recovery begins.
Mildest by depth.
Not yet finished by clock.
Both cannot be true forever.
RaSu retweeted
Bitcoin lost -93.1% in 2011 bear market.
Drawdowns that followed hit -88%, -83.5% and -76.6%. In the current run, we reached -53.2% from the peak.
There is a pattern of decreasing drawdowns. It's normal volatility falls as the market matures but bear's not done yet.
Agreed?
RaSu retweeted
Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past bitcoin:native bear markets.
According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet.
We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.
RaSu retweeted
🔥One of the most Alpha lines in the CVDD Ratio is approaching Bitcoin’s historical bottom region once again.
This trendline has shaped almost every major cycle bottom every 4 years, marking zones where extreme fear, capitulation, and risk asymmetry became much more attractive.
The key point now is simple:
For this signal to repeat, Bitcoin would need to drop quickly below $50k.
If that happens, late September could be an interesting window to watch, since historically the metric tends to spend a few weeks moving near the bottom region before a clearer market reaction takes place.
Nothing better than adding an alert and being notified when this signal appears, right?
Go to Alphractal.com now and create your smart alert.
RaSu retweeted
Another intriguing combination to try to think ahead on #Bitcoin from this horrible range is the chart of “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss,” measured by greed/fear, combined with BTC volatility.
We haven’t seen extreme levels of fear or capitulation.
Many people argue that because we didn’t see a parabolic rally at the top, then we shouldn’t expect a panic event at the bottom.
In my opinion, one thing has nothing to do with the other.
It is much more common to see bottoms after moments of fear, than parabolic rallies.
The last two times we saw a resolution in BTC volatility, it spiked during major sell-offs.
My gut says we could still see one final big volatility expansion in $BTC that takes us into that extreme panic sell-off / bottom.
RaSu retweeted
It's times like these that I start to look like a perma bear, but really I'm just supporting the cycle to continue as usual, which is the bear market to play out in full. (End of 2026)
Fear and Greed has returned to neutral, similar to other cycles at this time after the same set of moves.
The short-term cycle is repeating itself again:
1. Price makes a big move to the downside... Everyone: "It's over" (Feb 2026)
2. Price balances and the dust settles.... Everyone: "Maybe it's ok, but probably not." (Mar - Apr 2026)
3. Price rebounds into a local high.... Everyone: "I knew the bottom was in, the 4-year cycle is over." (May 2026)
We saw the same psychology in November 2025 - January 2026.
This is how local highs and lows go undetected.
RaSu retweeted
Bitcoin approaching SMA200 as expected
RaSu retweeted
$BTC is about to test the EMA200 & MA200 on the daily 👀
We’ve spent 6 months below them
