@rahpointthree

it is terrible to live in the if we only knew then times

Joined June 2024
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341Media
Only real change since the election seems to be that without political inertia, CAQ has collapsed and their supporters have gone to different parties. If I were to guess I think the PCQ is picking up more supporters from this than this poll shows.
Ray (Formerly Charestiste)🇨🇦🍁
@RealAlbanianPat17h
New Leger Quebec poll 🔵PQ: 30% (+2.0%) 🔴PLQ: 26% (+1.8%) 🟣PCQ: 22% (+1.3%) 🟠QS: 12% (-0.4%) 💠CAQ: 8% (-5.4%) ⚪OTH: 2% (+0.7%) (+/- change from the 2026 Quebec election results)
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the last Leger poll before the election was very accurate but did underestimate the PCQ. But perhaps the PCQ have hit a ceiling, they're not exactly moderates.
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Danielle Smith wants to abolish the Senate, I think she's a DSA affiliated politician
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Student vote results in Quebec have QS winning the popular vote.
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They finally exiled him to an island he couldnt escape from
alice 🌸@justaliceflorOct 19
Randomly discovered…whatever this is
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Relately, here's the swing of 2020 Liberal to 2024 Conservative vote. The United independents affects the results a bit, but you can see the general geographic trend.
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 10
A big question for this election is gonna be how much the vote distribution of the Conservatives is going to change from 2024. They lost support compared to the Liberals in wealthier urban areas while gaining among immigrants in Surrey. With Doerkeson's more moderate campaign,
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Relately, here's the swing of 2020 Liberal to 2024 Conservative vote. The United independents affects the results a bit, but you can see the general geographic trend.
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 10
A big question for this election is gonna be how much the vote distribution of the Conservatives is going to change from 2024. They lost support compared to the Liberals in wealthier urban areas while gaining among immigrants in Surrey. With Doerkeson's more moderate campaign,
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it's happening
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 9
VanLibs flopping would be beautiful.
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Another thing about the BC election, it's very possible the Greens lose seats. Yeah the Greens are up in the polls, but that's entirely from gaining in Vancouver. On the island, they're down, and they only won Saanich North by a couple points last time.
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 9
BC Election Model (Oct-9) 🔵CPBC: 58 seats (+14), 45.61% 🟠BCNDP: 33 seats (-14), 40.87% 🟢GPBC: 2 seats (-), 9.61% 🟡1BC: 0 seats (new), 1.96% 🔴CBC: 0 seats (new), 1.40% Conservative majority
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Van West-Sea to Sky, meanwhile, also might be competative. Theoretically the Greens would be doing better there, it is Metro Van, but I don't think it's that area specifically they're improving in. Also the Cons nearly won it in 2024, and they're up in the polls.
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For example, if the opposition party coalition is halfway between 2024 and 2020, the BC Conservatives still win, but go from 57 seats to 52 seats with the same vote share.
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 10
A big question for this election is gonna be how much the vote distribution of the Conservatives is going to change from 2024. They lost support compared to the Liberals in wealthier urban areas while gaining among immigrants in Surrey. With Doerkeson's more moderate campaign,
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A big question for this election is gonna be how much the vote distribution of the Conservatives is going to change from 2024. They lost support compared to the Liberals in wealthier urban areas while gaining among immigrants in Surrey. With Doerkeson's more moderate campaign,
rah 🇨🇦🚦@rahpointthreeOct 9
BC Election Model (Oct-9) 🔵CPBC: 58 seats (+14), 45.61% 🟠BCNDP: 33 seats (-14), 40.87% 🟢GPBC: 2 seats (-), 9.61% 🟡1BC: 0 seats (new), 1.96% 🔴CBC: 0 seats (new), 1.40% Conservative majority
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Will Conservative support this time look more like the BC Liberal coalition? This would probably makd the Con vote less efficient I think.
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Barno_Further_Up_North
@Freebird_tweetOct 8
Alberta and Quebec are the only two genuinely unique cultures in Canada. The rest of the country is just a weak imitation of an American Blue state - and not even one of the remotely cool ones.
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VanLibs flopping would be beautiful.
Ray (Formerly Charestiste)🇨🇦🍁
@RealAlbanianPatOct 9
New Leger Vancouver Municipal Polls Vancouver: Pete Fry-Green: 23% Ken Sim-ABC: 19% Hardwick-TEAM: 6% Allam-Liberals: 6% Bligh-Vote Vancouver: 5% Surrey: Brenda Locke-Surrey Connect: 24% Doug McCallum – Safe Surrey Coalition: 12% Starchuk – Imagine Surrey: 7% Annis – Surrey First: 7% Randhawa – Conservative: 6% Burnaby: Mike Hurley: 25% Bill Petrovas: 5% Richmond: Kash Heed: 13% Alex Loo: 12% Rob Howard: 11% Coquitlam: Craig Hodge: 22% Trish Mandewo: 4%
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Alternate world where the US adopted China's policy of appointing local politicals that are doing well to run a city on the other side of the country.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 9
Manhattan Institute poll | 9/24-10/1 LV Los Angeles mayor 2026 (Hypothetical) 🟦Zohran Mamdani 43% (NYC) 🟦Daniel Lurie 35% (SF)
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BC Election Model (Oct-9) 🔵CPBC: 58 seats (+14), 45.61% 🟠BCNDP: 33 seats (-14), 40.87% 🟢GPBC: 2 seats (-), 9.61% 🟡1BC: 0 seats (new), 1.96% 🔴CBC: 0 seats (new), 1.40% Conservative majority
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Decided to map out where the other parties have managed to run candidates in BC.
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Also the other candidates. No idea what CanWest is still.
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I do wonder who non-conservatives (all three of them) in this riding would vote for
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