Investor | Uncovering high-potential stocks & market anomalies | AI enthusiast | Founder of LARYA AI, a real estate technology startup.
Joined January 2026
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🚨 $OPEN — POSSIBLE ALGORITHMIC MARKET MANIPULATION.
@nejatian — I am addressing this directly to you as CEO of Opendoor.
After weeks of forensic work on $OPEN trading, I believe our findings justify review by Opendoor, Nasdaq, FINRA and potentially the SEC.
As an $OPEN shareholder, I can provide the complete dataset, order IDs, timestamps, code and methodology.
We reconstructed ~2.23 MILLION individual orders across Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, Cboe BZX, EDGX and MEMX, covering ~86% of observed volume: MBO/L3 orders, executions, cancellations, off-exchange trades, auctions, options and short-sale data.
Thousands of quantitative tests: regressions, event studies, cross-venue synchronization, market-impact models, VPIN and order-lifecycle reconstruction.
The findings raise serious questions about potential algorithmic market manipulation.
From Sep 9–17 alone, 14:00–15:00 ET produced −4.94M shares of aggressive net flow, negative in 6/7 sessions.
But the key evidence is inside the book.
📍 SEP 9 — 11,200
An 11,200-share SELL executes @ $3.05.
Then 335 SELL orders of exactly 11,200 shares appear.
326/335 — 97.3% — disappear within ONE SECOND.
After $OPEN trades lower:
🟢 BUY 11,200 @ $3.00 → EXECUTED.
SELL → REPEATED SUPPLY → CANCEL → LOWER PRICE → BUY
If CAT links these actions to the same beneficial owner/coordinated accounts, regulators can determine whether displayed supply influenced price discovery before a lower execution.
📍 SEP 17 — THE $2.57 WALL
172 SELL orders of exactly 14,500 shares.
167/172 — 97.1% — cancelled within one second.
Around 108 identical 14,500-share SELL orders repeatedly appear around $2.57 while genuine selling hits $OPEN.
Median lifetime:
~78 MILLISECONDS.
Same size. Same price. Appear. Disappear. Repeat.
Genuine liquidity — or the appearance of a larger sell wall than actually intended for execution?
📍 SEP 24 — THE CLOSE
Nasdaq SELL imbalance jumps:
354K → 970K → 1.17M shares in ~20 seconds.
At virtually the same time, selling appears across ALL FIVE exchanges.
Around 15:54:40 ET, in ~ONE SECOND:
🔴 ~134,060 aggressively SOLD
🟢 ~810 aggressively BOUGHT
~165 : 1
Nasdaq. Arca. EDGX. BZX. MEMX.
The five venues finish at approximately −822K shares of identified aggressive net flow.
⸻
THESE ARE ONLY EXAMPLES.
Across the five-exchange sample:
🔴 38,076 large fleeting SELL orders
🔴 ~353M shares of cumulatively displayed sell liquidity
A stricter test — 5,000+ share orders appearing before an opposite-side execution and cancelled within 50ms — identified:
68,524 SELL-side candidate sequences
vs 49,769 BUY-side
= 18,755 more SELL occurrences.
We also tested thresholds down to 5 milliseconds.
These totals alone don’t prove manipulation; high-frequency activity exists on both sides. But the specific fingerprints come from tens of thousands of order/cancellation sequences and deserve account-level investigation.
WE DOCUMENTED:
• persistent aggressive selling
• identical non-round SELL orders
• 97%+ cancellation rates in specific fingerprints
• lifetimes measured in milliseconds
• apparent sell walls
• auction imbalances
• simultaneous cross-exchange selling
These patterns overlap with spoofing/layering when non-bona-fide liquidity creates misleading supply/demand while genuine transactions obtain an economic advantage.
The decisive question: WHO controlled these orders?
Public data cannot answer it. The Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) can.
@nejatian , I hope you and @Opendoor take this seriously. I can provide the entire analysis and dataset immediately.
If Opendoor does not act, on Monday, as an @Opendoor shareholder, I intend through legal counsel to submit the prepared documentation directly to the SEC and appropriate regulators for independent review and to protect Opendoor shareholders’ interests.
The data, order IDs, timestamps and anomalies exist. Now they deserve to be investigated.
@rabois @ericjackson @mikealfred
Quantum Leopard retweeted
$OPEN — @mikealfred REPORTEDLY HOLDS 10.6 MILLION SHARES. DO YOU KNOW WHO HE IS?
Before dismissing his conviction in Opendoor, look at the man behind the investment.
Mike Alfred isn’t just another bullish personality on X.
He’s a Stanford graduate, serial entrepreneur, and investor known for identifying opportunities before they become mainstream.
HIS TRACK RECORD SPEAKS FOR ITSELF.
1. BRIGHTSCOPE — BUILT AND SOLD
In 2008, Alfred co-founded BrightScope with his brother Ryan, creating an independent rating system for US retirement plans.
The company was acquired by Strategic Insight in 2016.
His first major entrepreneurial exit.
2. DIGITAL ASSETS DATA — ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL EXIT
In 2018, Alfred co-founded Digital Assets Data, an institutional cryptocurrency data platform.
In November 2020, NYDIG acquired the company.
Two companies built. Two successful exits.
Not predictions. Actual businesses created and sold.
3. IREN — IDENTIFYING THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITY
When Bitcoin miners were considered speculative cryptocurrency businesses, Alfred recognized something deeper.
Electricity, land, grid connections, and physical infrastructure could become valuable in the AI era.
He reportedly began accumulating IREN around $2 per share and has discussed returns approaching 15x.
He’s served on IREN’s board since 2021.
He recognized the infrastructure opportunity before the AI narrative became mainstream.
4. ALPINE FOX CAPITAL — CONVICTION BACKED BY CAPITAL
Alfred founded Alpine Fox Capital in 2022.
His philosophy combines value investing with concentrated positions in businesses undergoing major transformations.
He has publicly described targeting 30–50% annualized returns over long periods, accepting substantial volatility.
His Q2 2026 reported US long holdings were approximately $211 million, including Cipher Mining, IREN, Bitcoin-related investments, and Opendoor.
NOW LOOK AT HIS REPORTED OPENDOOR EXPOSURE.
December 2025: 25,000 shares
February 2026: 1.6 million
March 2026: 1.67 million
June 2026: 4.73 million
September 2026: 8.1 million
September 20: 10.1 million
October 10: 10.6 MILLION SHARES
These figures combine institutional filings and public statements, not necessarily one account. October’s figure comes from a secondary report.
The progression is extraordinary.
And it happened amid selling pressure, high short interest, and negative sentiment toward Opendoor.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER TO ME?
Because I see a potential parallel between IREN and Opendoor.
With IREN, Alfred recognized that the market might be overlooking the strategic value of its infrastructure.
With Opendoor, I believe a similar question deserves attention.
Is Wall Street valuing OPEN merely as a struggling home-flipping company while overlooking its technology, proprietary data, transaction infrastructure, distribution network, and potential to transform residential real estate?
I don’t know whether Alfred shares that exact thesis.
But his reported exposure makes the question worth investigating.
HIS SUCCESS DOES NOT MAKE HIM INFALLIBLE.
Two successful exits and a major investment winner don’t guarantee another successful investment.
But experience matters. Capital allocation matters. Conviction backed by substantial exposure matters.
When someone who built and sold two companies, identified the AI infrastructure opportunity early, and manages a concentrated portfolio reportedly accumulates more than 10 million shares of Opendoor, I PAY ATTENTION.
Not because I blindly follow successful investors.
But because experienced capital can sometimes recognize opportunities the market overlooks.
The question isn’t whether Mike Alfred can be wrong. Of course he can.
The question is: WHAT DOES HE SEE IN OPENDOOR THAT THE MARKET DOESN’T?
I’m long $OPEN .
THROUGH THE STORM.
🤖 Made with AI
$OPEN — @mikealfred REPORTEDLY HOLDS 10.6 MILLION SHARES. DO YOU KNOW WHO HE IS?
Before dismissing his conviction in Opendoor, look at the man behind the investment.
Mike Alfred isn’t just another bullish personality on X.
He’s a Stanford graduate, serial entrepreneur, and investor known for identifying opportunities before they become mainstream.
HIS TRACK RECORD SPEAKS FOR ITSELF.
1. BRIGHTSCOPE — BUILT AND SOLD
In 2008, Alfred co-founded BrightScope with his brother Ryan, creating an independent rating system for US retirement plans.
The company was acquired by Strategic Insight in 2016.
His first major entrepreneurial exit.
2. DIGITAL ASSETS DATA — ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL EXIT
In 2018, Alfred co-founded Digital Assets Data, an institutional cryptocurrency data platform.
In November 2020, NYDIG acquired the company.
Two companies built. Two successful exits.
Not predictions. Actual businesses created and sold.
3. IREN — IDENTIFYING THE AI INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITY
When Bitcoin miners were considered speculative cryptocurrency businesses, Alfred recognized something deeper.
Electricity, land, grid connections, and physical infrastructure could become valuable in the AI era.
He reportedly began accumulating IREN around $2 per share and has discussed returns approaching 15x.
He’s served on IREN’s board since 2021.
He recognized the infrastructure opportunity before the AI narrative became mainstream.
4. ALPINE FOX CAPITAL — CONVICTION BACKED BY CAPITAL
Alfred founded Alpine Fox Capital in 2022.
His philosophy combines value investing with concentrated positions in businesses undergoing major transformations.
He has publicly described targeting 30–50% annualized returns over long periods, accepting substantial volatility.
His Q2 2026 reported US long holdings were approximately $211 million, including Cipher Mining, IREN, Bitcoin-related investments, and Opendoor.
NOW LOOK AT HIS REPORTED OPENDOOR EXPOSURE.
December 2025: 25,000 shares
February 2026: 1.6 million
March 2026: 1.67 million
June 2026: 4.73 million
September 2026: 8.1 million
September 20: 10.1 million
October 10: 10.6 MILLION SHARES
These figures combine institutional filings and public statements, not necessarily one account. October’s figure comes from a secondary report.
The progression is extraordinary.
And it happened amid selling pressure, high short interest, and negative sentiment toward Opendoor.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER TO ME?
Because I see a potential parallel between IREN and Opendoor.
With IREN, Alfred recognized that the market might be overlooking the strategic value of its infrastructure.
With Opendoor, I believe a similar question deserves attention.
Is Wall Street valuing OPEN merely as a struggling home-flipping company while overlooking its technology, proprietary data, transaction infrastructure, distribution network, and potential to transform residential real estate?
I don’t know whether Alfred shares that exact thesis.
But his reported exposure makes the question worth investigating.
HIS SUCCESS DOES NOT MAKE HIM INFALLIBLE.
Two successful exits and a major investment winner don’t guarantee another successful investment.
But experience matters. Capital allocation matters. Conviction backed by substantial exposure matters.
When someone who built and sold two companies, identified the AI infrastructure opportunity early, and manages a concentrated portfolio reportedly accumulates more than 10 million shares of Opendoor, I PAY ATTENTION.
Not because I blindly follow successful investors.
But because experienced capital can sometimes recognize opportunities the market overlooks.
The question isn’t whether Mike Alfred can be wrong. Of course he can.
The question is: WHAT DOES HE SEE IN OPENDOOR THAT THE MARKET DOESN’T?
I’m long $OPEN .
THROUGH THE STORM.
🤖 Made with AI
ONE MINUTE OF SILENCE FOR EVERYONE WHO SHORTED $OPEN BELOW $2.00.
Long Opendoor through the storm. 🚀
Quantum Leopard retweeted
IT’S NOT JUST A GREEN CANDLE. $OPEN
October 15: +16.58% close-to-close. Strongest daily gain since November 10, 2025.
From $1.93 to $2.35: +21.76%. The low-to-close recovery was +20.21%, the largest since November 7, 2025.
The standout is momentum.
Daily RSI(14, Wilder) jumped from 22.01 to 42.21: +20.20 POINTS. In my calculation on Yahoo’s daily history, that’s the largest one-session RSI increase since August 12, 2021.
Now look at the geometry.
The October 2 high was $2.53. The subsequent low was $1.93: a 23.72% drawdown.
Closing at $2.32 recovered 65% of that decline in ONE session, reclaiming its 61.8% retracement at $2.301.
The candle’s real body contains SIX previous daily bodies, on 2.16× the preceding 20-session average volume.
Price also closed above two descending trendlines:
• July 10 / October 9 highs.
• September 22 / October 2 highs.
The next battle is precisely defined: $2.37–$2.44.
Inside that zone:
• $2.370: 50% retracement of the September 22 downswing.
• $2.378–$2.388: 20-day SMA/EMA.
• $2.402: 78.6% retracement of the October 2 downswing.
• $2.434: 38.2% retracement of the September 3 downswing.
That’s a resistance cluster with several distinct anchors.
A sustained reclaim would bring $2.47–$2.53 into focus: the September 22 swing’s 61.8% retracement, the September 3 anchored VWAP and the October 2 high.
First area to defend on a retest: $2.21–$2.25.
Structural floor: $1.93.
Momentum confirmation still needed: RSI above 50.
A rare momentum impulse. A substantial retracement reclaimed. Two trendlines broken.
Now buyers have to turn that impulse into sustained trading above resistance.
LONG $OPEN through the storm!
IT’S NOT JUST A GREEN CANDLE. $OPEN
October 15: +16.58% close-to-close. Strongest daily gain since November 10, 2025.
From $1.93 to $2.35: +21.76%. The low-to-close recovery was +20.21%, the largest since November 7, 2025.
The standout is momentum.
Daily RSI(14, Wilder) jumped from 22.01 to 42.21: +20.20 POINTS. In my calculation on Yahoo’s daily history, that’s the largest one-session RSI increase since August 12, 2021.
Now look at the geometry.
The October 2 high was $2.53. The subsequent low was $1.93: a 23.72% drawdown.
Closing at $2.32 recovered 65% of that decline in ONE session, reclaiming its 61.8% retracement at $2.301.
The candle’s real body contains SIX previous daily bodies, on 2.16× the preceding 20-session average volume.
Price also closed above two descending trendlines:
• July 10 / October 9 highs.
• September 22 / October 2 highs.
The next battle is precisely defined: $2.37–$2.44.
Inside that zone:
• $2.370: 50% retracement of the September 22 downswing.
• $2.378–$2.388: 20-day SMA/EMA.
• $2.402: 78.6% retracement of the October 2 downswing.
• $2.434: 38.2% retracement of the September 3 downswing.
That’s a resistance cluster with several distinct anchors.
A sustained reclaim would bring $2.47–$2.53 into focus: the September 22 swing’s 61.8% retracement, the September 3 anchored VWAP and the October 2 high.
First area to defend on a retest: $2.21–$2.25.
Structural floor: $1.93.
Momentum confirmation still needed: RSI above 50.
A rare momentum impulse. A substantial retracement reclaimed. Two trendlines broken.
Now buyers have to turn that impulse into sustained trading above resistance.
LONG $OPEN through the storm!
Quantum Leopard retweeted
🚨 SPOT THE DIFFERENCE: A MANIPULATED VS. AN UNMANIPULATED REAL ESTATE STOCK.
For weeks, rising Treasury yields were supposedly the reason $OPEN kept collapsing.
Now the 10Y and 30Y yields are falling sharply, reversing the very macro pressure everyone blamed.
And look at October 14:
🟢 $Z : +1.29%
🔴 $OPEN: −5.69%
October 15 premarket:
🟢 $Z: +1.80%
🔴 $OPEN: −2.51%
Same real estate sector. Same improving Treasury backdrop. Completely opposite reactions.
One responds to improving conditions.
The other? Apparently, good news is bad news too.
I believe extreme short pressure is distorting $OPEN’s price discovery. This divergence isn’t proof of manipulation, but it raises serious questions.
WHEN YIELDS RISE, $OPEN FALLS. WHEN YIELDS FALL, $OPEN STILL FALLS.
At what point do we stop calling everything “macro”?
Spot the difference. I certainly can.
🚨 SPOT THE DIFFERENCE: A MANIPULATED VS. AN UNMANIPULATED REAL ESTATE STOCK.
For weeks, rising Treasury yields were supposedly the reason $OPEN kept collapsing.
Now the 10Y and 30Y yields are falling sharply, reversing the very macro pressure everyone blamed.
And look at October 14:
🟢 $Z : +1.29%
🔴 $OPEN: −5.69%
October 15 premarket:
🟢 $Z: +1.80%
🔴 $OPEN: −2.51%
Same real estate sector. Same improving Treasury backdrop. Completely opposite reactions.
One responds to improving conditions.
The other? Apparently, good news is bad news too.
I believe extreme short pressure is distorting $OPEN’s price discovery. This divergence isn’t proof of manipulation, but it raises serious questions.
WHEN YIELDS RISE, $OPEN FALLS. WHEN YIELDS FALL, $OPEN STILL FALLS.
At what point do we stop calling everything “macro”?
Spot the difference. I certainly can.
Quantum Leopard retweeted
🚨 $OPEN — FIVE EXTREME DIVERGENCES. ONE MASSIVE MACRO SHIFT?
WHAT IF THE MARKET IS MISSING THE BIGGER PICTURE?
On October 14, stocks plunged, especially AI-related names. Yet Treasury yields reversed sharply lower after an initial spike.
STOCKS FELL. TREASURIES ATTRACTED BUYERS. YIELDS RETREATED.
My thesis: fears over AI valuations, massive CapEx and debt-funded infrastructure may be restoring Treasuries’ SAFE-HAVEN status.
LET ME BE CLEAR: AI IS NOT A BUBBLE.
I believe AI is a generational revolution. At current prices, I consider $CRWV (CoreWeave) an exceptional long-term BUY.
But technological progress doesn’t prevent market corrections or capital rotations.
REMEMBER THE DOT-COM CRASH:
In 2000:
🔴 Nasdaq: −39.3%
🟢 US Equity REITs: +26.4%
A 66-POINT DIVERGENCE.
March 2000–September 2002:
🟢 REITs: +45%
🔴 Large-cap growth: −44%
Nasdaq peak-to-trough: approximately −78%.
The internet wasn’t a failed revolution. Capital allocation simply changed.
NOW LOOK AT $OPEN’S FIVE DIVERGENCES.
1️⃣ MACRO — YIELDS DOWN, OPEN DOWN.
October 5–14:
📉 Treasury 10Y: −12 bps
📉 Treasury 30Y: −14 bps
📉 Zillow 30Y mortgages: −12 bps
🔴 $OPEN: −13.9%
High yields supposedly justified OPEN’s weakness. Now yields and mortgage rates are retreating, but OPEN keeps falling.
2️⃣ SECTOR — REAL ESTATE UP, OPEN DOWN.
🟢 $XLRE: +2.1%
🔴 $OPEN: −13.9%
16 PERCENTAGE POINTS APART.
Different business models, but a striking divergence as listed real estate shows relative strength.
3️⃣ FUNDAMENTALS — OPERATIONS IMPROVE, PRICE COLLAPSES.
🏠 Weekly acquisition contracts: 525 vs. 129 (+307% YoY)
🏠 Previous week: 477 vs. 126 (+279%)
🏠 Q3 resale closings: 2,728 vs. 2,653
🏠 Early Q4 closings: +35% YoY (Oct. 7)
📈 Q2 contribution margin: 5.8% vs. 4.4%
Acquisitions accelerate. Efficiency improves. The stock collapses.
Operational progress isn’t guaranteed profitability. But why such extreme pessimism?
4️⃣ TECHNICAL — HISTORIC OVERSOLD EXTREMES.
📉 Daily RSI: ~22
📉 Weekly RSI: ~25, below the previous historical low of ~27 on my chart.
OPEN is testing the $1.90–$2.10 historical area.
Not proof of a bottom. But an extraordinary oversold setup.
5️⃣ SHORT INTEREST — BEARISH EXPOSURE VS. OPERATIONAL PROGRESS.
⚠️ 230.5 MILLION SHARES SHORT (Sept. 30).
Improving operating indicators alongside massive bearish positioning.
No guaranteed squeeze or proof of manipulation. But potentially explosive sensitivity to improving expectations.
⸻
NOW CONNECT THE DOTS.
What if AI volatility drives capital into long-duration Treasuries?
What if lower yields eventually reduce mortgage costs, improve affordability and revive housing transactions?
What if OPEN keeps improving while its stock remains deeply depressed?
I’M NOT BETTING AGAINST AI. I’M QUESTIONING HOW MARKETS PRICE CAPITAL ROTATIONS.
The dot-com era proved technological revolutions can coexist with real estate outperformance. I’m not predicting another dot-com crash.
Inflation, mortgage spreads, inventory exposure, cash burn and dilution remain real risks.
Yet the simultaneous disconnect between TREASURIES, MORTGAGES, REAL ESTATE, OPERATIONS, STOCK PRICE AND SHORT INTEREST is impossible for me to ignore.
WHAT IF $OPEN IS PRICING A WORSE FUTURE JUST AS ITS UNDERLYING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE?
I don’t know when a reversal comes.
THE MARKET IS PRICING FEAR. I’M WATCHING THE DIVERGENCES.
LONG $OPEN — THROUGH THE STORM.
🚨 $OPEN — FIVE EXTREME DIVERGENCES. ONE MASSIVE MACRO SHIFT?
WHAT IF THE MARKET IS MISSING THE BIGGER PICTURE?
On October 14, stocks plunged, especially AI-related names. Yet Treasury yields reversed sharply lower after an initial spike.
STOCKS FELL. TREASURIES ATTRACTED BUYERS. YIELDS RETREATED.
My thesis: fears over AI valuations, massive CapEx and debt-funded infrastructure may be restoring Treasuries’ SAFE-HAVEN status.
LET ME BE CLEAR: AI IS NOT A BUBBLE.
I believe AI is a generational revolution. At current prices, I consider $CRWV (CoreWeave) an exceptional long-term BUY.
But technological progress doesn’t prevent market corrections or capital rotations.
REMEMBER THE DOT-COM CRASH:
In 2000:
🔴 Nasdaq: −39.3%
🟢 US Equity REITs: +26.4%
A 66-POINT DIVERGENCE.
March 2000–September 2002:
🟢 REITs: +45%
🔴 Large-cap growth: −44%
Nasdaq peak-to-trough: approximately −78%.
The internet wasn’t a failed revolution. Capital allocation simply changed.
NOW LOOK AT $OPEN’S FIVE DIVERGENCES.
1️⃣ MACRO — YIELDS DOWN, OPEN DOWN.
October 5–14:
📉 Treasury 10Y: −12 bps
📉 Treasury 30Y: −14 bps
📉 Zillow 30Y mortgages: −12 bps
🔴 $OPEN: −13.9%
High yields supposedly justified OPEN’s weakness. Now yields and mortgage rates are retreating, but OPEN keeps falling.
2️⃣ SECTOR — REAL ESTATE UP, OPEN DOWN.
🟢 $XLRE: +2.1%
🔴 $OPEN: −13.9%
16 PERCENTAGE POINTS APART.
Different business models, but a striking divergence as listed real estate shows relative strength.
3️⃣ FUNDAMENTALS — OPERATIONS IMPROVE, PRICE COLLAPSES.
🏠 Weekly acquisition contracts: 525 vs. 129 (+307% YoY)
🏠 Previous week: 477 vs. 126 (+279%)
🏠 Q3 resale closings: 2,728 vs. 2,653
🏠 Early Q4 closings: +35% YoY (Oct. 7)
📈 Q2 contribution margin: 5.8% vs. 4.4%
Acquisitions accelerate. Efficiency improves. The stock collapses.
Operational progress isn’t guaranteed profitability. But why such extreme pessimism?
4️⃣ TECHNICAL — HISTORIC OVERSOLD EXTREMES.
📉 Daily RSI: ~22
📉 Weekly RSI: ~25, below the previous historical low of ~27 on my chart.
OPEN is testing the $1.90–$2.10 historical area.
Not proof of a bottom. But an extraordinary oversold setup.
5️⃣ SHORT INTEREST — BEARISH EXPOSURE VS. OPERATIONAL PROGRESS.
⚠️ 230.5 MILLION SHARES SHORT (Sept. 30).
Improving operating indicators alongside massive bearish positioning.
No guaranteed squeeze or proof of manipulation. But potentially explosive sensitivity to improving expectations.
⸻
NOW CONNECT THE DOTS.
What if AI volatility drives capital into long-duration Treasuries?
What if lower yields eventually reduce mortgage costs, improve affordability and revive housing transactions?
What if OPEN keeps improving while its stock remains deeply depressed?
I’M NOT BETTING AGAINST AI. I’M QUESTIONING HOW MARKETS PRICE CAPITAL ROTATIONS.
The dot-com era proved technological revolutions can coexist with real estate outperformance. I’m not predicting another dot-com crash.
Inflation, mortgage spreads, inventory exposure, cash burn and dilution remain real risks.
Yet the simultaneous disconnect between TREASURIES, MORTGAGES, REAL ESTATE, OPERATIONS, STOCK PRICE AND SHORT INTEREST is impossible for me to ignore.
WHAT IF $OPEN IS PRICING A WORSE FUTURE JUST AS ITS UNDERLYING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE?
I don’t know when a reversal comes.
THE MARKET IS PRICING FEAR. I’M WATCHING THE DIVERGENCES.
LONG $OPEN — THROUGH THE STORM.
Quantum Leopard retweeted
🚨 $OPEN — THE TURNAROUND IS ACCELERATING. THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE.
Last week, I highlighted the growing disconnect between Opendoor’s operational recovery and its stock price.
Now the latest data make my bullish thesis even stronger.
📈 525 weekly acquisition contracts vs. 129 last year. +307% YoY.
🟢 +10% vs. the previous week.
🏠 Resale COEs: 185 vs. 137 last year. +35% YoY (Oct. 7).
🔥 Relative clearance: 1.19x — outperforming the MLS benchmark by 19%.
These aren’t projections. They’re reported operating indicators.
Opendoor is acquiring more aggressively, converting available inventory into contracts faster than its market benchmark, and showing early year-over-year improvement in resale closings.
Acquisition contracts aren’t revenue, and execution still matters. But the direction is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
MY THESIS HASN’T CHANGED. THE OPERATIONAL EVIDENCE IS GETTING STRONGER.
The stock price tells one story. The operating data tell another.
I’M LONG $OPEN . 🚀
🚨 $OPEN — THE TURNAROUND IS ACCELERATING. THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE.
Last week, I highlighted the growing disconnect between Opendoor’s operational recovery and its stock price.
Now the latest data make my bullish thesis even stronger.
📈 525 weekly acquisition contracts vs. 129 last year. +307% YoY.
🟢 +10% vs. the previous week.
🏠 Resale COEs: 185 vs. 137 last year. +35% YoY (Oct. 7).
🔥 Relative clearance: 1.19x — outperforming the MLS benchmark by 19%.
These aren’t projections. They’re reported operating indicators.
Opendoor is acquiring more aggressively, converting available inventory into contracts faster than its market benchmark, and showing early year-over-year improvement in resale closings.
Acquisition contracts aren’t revenue, and execution still matters. But the direction is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
MY THESIS HASN’T CHANGED. THE OPERATIONAL EVIDENCE IS GETTING STRONGER.
The stock price tells one story. The operating data tell another.
I’M LONG $OPEN . 🚀
Not at all bro. My conviction in $OPEN remains unchanged.
I agree the real estate sector is struggling, but I believe Opendoor is exceeding expectations.
Look at short interest:
$OPEN: 26.8%
$OPAD: 13.0%
$Z: 9.6%
Why such an extreme divergence?
I’ve already submitted concerns about suspicious trading patterns to the SEC., and it deserves investigation.
Being bullish doesn’t mean staying silent. I have every right to demand that management protect shareholders’ interests and address these concerns.
LONG $OPEN
