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Quantillion

@quantillion_eu

Global company specializing in quantitative research. We are creating a new, technologically advanced, and equitable world of the future. info@quantillions.com

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Joined January 2023
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Quantillion Atlas — daily digest 🟡 Holding pattern: markets await Nvidia catalyst while geopolitical crosscurrents persist Today's macro pulse: Equities ground higher into the Nvidia earnings print as bond yields paused near cycle highs and Iran diplomacy hints tempered energy-led inflation fears. • Stocks grind up pre-Nvidia, bonds stabilize. US equities advanced with Nvidia leading ahead of tonight's results — the single most-watched earnings event this quarter. Bond yields paused after a multi-day sell-off but remain near recent highs, keeping risk sentiment on a short leash. source: investing • Iran talks in "final stages" — oil and gas ease. Trump signaled US-Iran negotiations are approaching conclusion, prompting crude to slip as tankers resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices also retreated on reduced supply-disruption premium. The UAE's Hormuz bypass pipeline is 50% complete, adding a structural hedge. source: investing • ECB June rate hike all but locked in. Sources indicate the ECB has largely settled on a June hike, though July remains an open question. The hawkish tilt reflects persistent core inflation concerns in the eurozone and adds to the global tightening narrative pressuring duration assets. source: investing • Dollar near six-week high; gold faces triple headwind. The dollar firmed on rate-hike expectations and residual Iran uncertainty, hovering at a six-week peak. Oil, yields, and the greenback are forming a concurrent headwind for gold, which managed only a marginal uptick despite safe-haven demand. source: investing • Indian rupee hits record low; RBI mobilizes $5B swap. USD/INR pushed toward 97 as the oil price shock cascaded through India's current account. The RBI responded with a planned $5 billion FX swap auction to inject rupee liquidity — a signal of acute EM stress from the energy-rate nexus. source: investing • Semiconductor names surge ahead of Nvidia print. Lattice Semiconductor and KLA both posted sharp gains, riding pre-earnings momentum across the chip complex. AI-adjacent capex narratives remain the primary bid driver, with convertible bond issuance from AI-linked firms also surging. source: investing Summary Markets are in a classic pre-catalyst consolidation: equities lean constructive on Nvidia optimism and Iran de-escalation hopes, but elevated bond yields and a strong dollar keep the risk surface mixed 🟡. Tonight's Nvidia print will likely determine short-term directional conviction. Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (since inception, Jul 01, 2010 to May 19, 2026, 15.9 years) Return: +2842.94% Return YTD: +1.32% 1Y Return: +18.67% 3Y Return: +72.55% CAGR (since 2010): 23.73% Sharpe: +2.44 Volatility: 6.09% Max Drawdown: 7.79% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material. #Quantillion #Atlas #MarketSentiment #QuantResearch #MacroPulse #Nvidia #IranTalks #BondYields
Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (since inception, Jul 01, 2010 to May 19, 2026, 15.9 years) Return: +2842.94% Return YTD: +1.32% 1Y Return: 3Y Return: CAGR (since 2010): 23.73% Sharpe: +2.44 Volatility: 6.09% Max Drawdown: 7.79% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material.

ALT Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (since inception, Jul 01, 2010 to May 19, 2026, 15.9 years) Return: +2842.94% Return YTD: +1.32% 1Y Return: 3Y Return: CAGR (since 2010): 23.73% Sharpe: +2.44 Volatility: 6.09% Max Drawdown: 7.79% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material.

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New on LinkedIn: The Map Is Not the Market. Once in the life of the universe: that is how often a normal distribution with the S&P 500's own volatility expects a daily move beyond 7.3 standard deviations. Since 1957 the index has had 15. linkedin.com/feed/update/urn…
The Map Is Not the Market | Quantillion

The Map Is Not the Market | Quantillion

Once in the life of the universe: that is how often a normal distribution with the S&P 500's own volatility expects a daily move beyond 7.3 standard deviations. Since 1957 the index has had 15: 3 in...

linkedin.com
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New on LinkedIn: Market Week, 19-23 October. Gold fell 4.0% in a week when real yields fell. linkedin.com/feed/update/urn…
Gold falls 4.0% in worst week since June | Quantillion posted on the topic | LinkedIn

Gold falls 4.0% in worst week since June | Quantillion posted on the topic | LinkedIn

Gold fell 4.0% this week, its worst week since June. The usual explanation is higher real yields and a stronger dollar. This week the 10-year real yield fell 8 basis points and the dollar ended flat....

linkedin.com
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Algo Wealth is now the fastest way to read our research. Follow the companies you care about, get our notes and company reports the moment they go out, and write to the team directly. Be the first to read what we publish. quantillions.com
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— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance
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GDP came out on Wednesday: second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2%, against 1.5% expected. August core PCE was softer than expected too, 0.2% against 0.3%.
Cover slide. GDP came in at 2.2%. Bonds rallied for ten minutes, then sold off all day. Second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%; economists had expected no change. August core PCE came in at 0.2%, softer than the 0.3% expected. The 10-year yield dropped 2.9 bp on the 8:30 ET data, was back where it started by 8:39, and finished the day 3.8 bp higher at 5.29%, its highest close since May 2002. The S&P 500 ended at the low of the day. Quantillion, quantillions.com. For research purposes only.

ALT Cover slide. GDP came in at 2.2%. Bonds rallied for ten minutes, then sold off all day. Second-quarter growth was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%; economists had expected no change. August core PCE came in at 0.2%, softer than the 0.3% expected. The 10-year yield dropped 2.9 bp on the 8:30 ET data, was back where it started by 8:39, and finished the day 3.8 bp higher at 5.29%, its highest close since May 2002. The S&P 500 ended at the low of the day. Quantillion, quantillions.com. For research purposes only.

What came out at 8:30. GDP: 2.2%, up from 1.5%; the third estimate of second-quarter growth was revised up by 0.7 points, mostly on investment (inventories and data-centre construction), consumer spending and defence; first-quarter growth now stands at 2.5%. Core PCE: 0.2% in August, a tenth softer than the 0.3% expected; the year-on-year rate is 3.0% after the annual revision cut July's rate to 3.0%; spending rose 0.9%, income 0.2%. Also at 8:30: the goods deficit was $132.6 billion against $114.8 billion expected, wholesale inventories rose 0.7%. ADP (+90k) came at 8:15, Chicago PMI (58.8) at 9:45.

ALT What came out at 8:30. GDP: 2.2%, up from 1.5%; the third estimate of second-quarter growth was revised up by 0.7 points, mostly on investment (inventories and data-centre construction), consumer spending and defence; first-quarter growth now stands at 2.5%. Core PCE: 0.2% in August, a tenth softer than the 0.3% expected; the year-on-year rate is 3.0% after the annual revision cut July's rate to 3.0%; spending rose 0.9%, income 0.2%. Also at 8:30: the goods deficit was $132.6 billion against $114.8 billion expected, wholesale inventories rose 0.7%. ADP (+90k) came at 8:15, Chicago PMI (58.8) at 9:45.

Chart, minute by minute on 30 September. Top panel: the 10-year yield in basis points versus the last minute before the 8:30 release. It fell 2.9 bp by 8:31, was back to its starting level within ten minutes (last minute below it at 9:27) and ended 5.9 bp higher at the 3 p.m. close. Bottom panel: S&P 500 futures in percent versus the same minute, up 0.35% at 8:31, first minute below the starting level at 15:42, and 0.40% lower at 15:59.

ALT Chart, minute by minute on 30 September. Top panel: the 10-year yield in basis points versus the last minute before the 8:30 release. It fell 2.9 bp by 8:31, was back to its starting level within ten minutes (last minute below it at 9:27) and ended 5.9 bp higher at the 3 p.m. close. Bottom panel: S&P 500 futures in percent versus the same minute, up 0.35% at 8:31, first minute below the starting level at 15:42, and 0.40% lower at 15:59.

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Tail risk is cheap until it's the only thing that matters The price and the cost of index put protection, by regime Tail protection is the insurance most investors first try to buy while the building is already on fire. The market knows this, and prices it accordingly.
Tail risk is cheap until it's the only thing that matters The price and the cost of index put protection, by regime Tail protection is the insurance most investors first try to buy while the building is already on fire. The market knows this, and prices it accordingly. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance

ALT Tail risk is cheap until it's the only thing that matters The price and the cost of index put protection, by regime Tail protection is the insurance most investors first try to buy while the building is already on fire. The market knows this, and prices it accordingly. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance

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Quantillion Atlas — digest 🟡 AI momentum offsets rate anxiety as oil relief lifts risk appetite Today's macro pulse: Falling crude and Hormuz diplomacy cleared a path for tech to extend its rally, pushing Nasdaq to a fresh intraday record even as Fed rhetoric kept the rate outlook hawkish. • Nasdaq prints intraday record high. Tech stocks regained footing on a combination of easing energy input costs and renewed AI capex optimism, with the index leading all three major benchmarks higher at the open. Oil's decline acted as a direct disinflationary tailwind, compressing risk premia across growth names. source: investing.com • Hormuz de-escalation and Saudi pipeline restart drive oil lower. Iran signaled willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US eases military pressure, while Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline to resume Yanbu exports — a dual supply-side relief that sent crude sharply lower and flattened the Treasury curve. Vessel traffic through the strait had dropped to just two, underscoring how constrained flows had become. source: investing.com • Fed's Musalem flags further rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated additional tightening is likely needed to contain inflation, reinforcing hawkish pricing across rates markets and supporting the dollar's climb to an 8-week high. The remarks widened the policy divergence with BOJ and ECB. source: investing.com • AI capex cycle broadens: Apple, Meta, Palo Alto. Apple unveiled new Macs aimed at undercutting Microsoft and Nvidia on AI compute costs; Wall Street positioned Meta's AI agent as a nascent revenue engine; Palo Alto Networks launched AI-powered cybersecurity integrating Claude and GPT frontier models — collectively widening the monetization surface of the AI buildout. source: investing.com • Dollar firms, sterling and loonie pressured. Hawkish Fed repricing pushed the greenback broadly higher, with GBP slipping on the rate differential and CAD weakened by retreating oil. The yuan bucked the trend, hitting a 3.5-year high on a strong PBOC fixing — a signal Beijing is tolerating appreciation amid summit diplomacy. source: investing.com Summary Markets are running a two-track narrative: AI-driven risk appetite propels equities to new highs while hawkish Fed guidance and persistent inflation concerns keep the fixed income and FX complex under tension. The 🟡 mixed aggregate sentiment reflects this divergence — momentum is with tech, but rates remain a headwind. Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.27% Sharpe: 0.58 Volatility: 7.52% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material.
Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.27% Sharpe: 0.58 Volatility: 7.52% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details.

ALT Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.27% Sharpe: 0.58 Volatility: 7.52% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details.

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The Fed · 16 September 2026 A quarter point was 93.5% priced at Tuesday's close, so delivered minus priced on the meeting itself was 1.6 bp; the expected rate for the April 2027 meeting rose 10.0 bp between the two closes, and every horizon out to June 2027 moved more than the meeting did. The FOMC raised the target range to 3.75-4.00% by a 12-0 vote, its first increase since July 2023, after six cuts totalling 175 bp. The projections put the median funds rate at 4.1% for end-2026, from 3.8% in June; 16 of 18 participants see at least one more hike this year. The ten-year Treasury closed at 5.01%, up 1.0 bp on the day, its first close above 5% since July 2007 in the daily series; the five-year rose 3.3 bp and the thirty-year fell 1.5 bp. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and 342 of its 503 members closed lower. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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The Fed · 16 September 2026 A quarter point was 93.5% priced at Tuesday's close, so delivered minus priced on the meeting itself was 1.6 bp; the expected rate for the April 2027 meeting rose 10.0 bp between the two closes, and every horizon out to June 2027 moved more than the meeting did. The FOMC raised the target range to 3.75-4.00% by a 12-0 vote, its first increase since July 2023, after six cuts totalling 175 bp. The projections put the median funds rate at 4.1% for end-2026, from 3.8% in June; 16 of 18 participants see at least one more hike this year. The ten-year Treasury closed at 5.01%, up 1.0 bp on the day, its first close above 5% since July 2007 in the daily series; the five-year rose 3.3 bp and the thirty-year fell 1.5 bp. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and 342 of its 503 members closed lower. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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The Overfitting Tax How much published alpha survivescontact with reality — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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The Overfitting Tax How much published alpha survivescontact with reality — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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The Overfitting Tax How much published alpha survivescontact with reality — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Quantillion Atlas — daily digest 🟡 Oil shock meets rate anxiety — markets caught between energy spike and inflation uncertainty Today's macro pulse: Brent crude breaching $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran hostilities dominated price action, dragging equities lower, pushing yields higher, and sending the dollar to a two-week trough against the yen. • Brent clears $100 as Middle East conflict intensifies. Oil prices surged past the psychological $100/bbl mark for the first time since July as US-Iran military tensions escalated. UBS raised its oil price forecasts for the next three quarters, while Sinopec projected an 8.9% decline in Chinese demand for 2026 — a partial demand-side offset that failed to cap the rally. source: investing • Wall Street opens sharply lower; Dow hits 1-month low. All three major indices opened in the red as $100 oil and looming CPI data weighed on risk appetite. The Dow fell to its lowest level in a month, with broad-based selling across rate-sensitive sectors. Analysts flagged elevated vulnerability to shocks ahead of the November midterms. source: seeking alpha • Fed consensus: hold through 2026, but hike probability rising. A Reuters poll showed a growing minority of analysts now pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end — a hawkish shift driven by persistent inflationary pressures from energy. US ETF investors are rotating into shorter-duration bonds, signaling active rate-risk hedging. source: investing • Treasury yields surge as bond market approaches 5%. The energy spike accelerated the global bond sell-off, with US Treasury yields rising sharply ahead of this week's inflation print. Five critical stress points in fixed income are now in focus as the 10-year creeps toward the 5% threshold — a level last sustained in late 2023. source: investing • Dollar slides to two-week low; yen rallies to 7-month high. The greenback weakened broadly as the oil shock amplified stagflation concerns. The yen hit its highest level in over seven months on safe-haven demand, while the Canadian dollar firmed on commodity tailwinds. Sterling eased modestly in thin range-bound trade. source: investing • China producer and consumer inflation re-accelerate in August. Rising energy costs pushed both PPI and CPI higher, complicating the PBOC's easing stance and adding to the global reflation narrative. The data reinforces the pass-through channel from $100 oil into headline inflation across major economies. source: investing Summary A classic risk-off session driven by the $100 oil shock, with cross-asset contagion from commodities into bonds, equities, and FX. The mixed 🟡 aggregate sentiment reflects a market torn between strong underlying earnings — Barclays lifted its S&P 500 year-end target to 7,950 — and mounting macro headwinds from energy prices, inflation expectations, and Fed policy uncertainty. Key event risk ahead: US CPI data later this week. Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 04, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.18% Sharpe: 0.59 Volatility: 7.66% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 04, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.18% Sharpe: 0.59 Volatility: 7.66% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Sep 04, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.18% Sharpe: 0.59 Volatility: 7.66% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Quantillion Atlas — daily digest 🟡 Nvidia clears the bar, but hawkish central banks cap the rally Today's macro pulse: AI earnings momentum collides with tightening signals from both the Fed and ECB, leaving risk appetite fragmented across asset classes. • Nvidia beats, UBS raises PT to $300. Nvidia delivered above-consensus results, prompting UBS to lift its price target to $300 on sustained data-center demand. S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened higher as the print eased near-term AI capex concerns, though gains faded as rate-sensitive sectors lagged. source: investing • ECB minutes tilt hawkish — September hike odds rise. July meeting accounts revealed the Governing Council viewed another rate increase as likely, with Schnabel's subsequent remarks reinforcing the case. Euro-area yields bounced off two-week lows as markets repriced the terminal rate higher. source: investing • Fed's Schmid: rates not yet restrictive. Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated current policy is not restraining the economy and hinted at further tightening. Sticky PCE data and a narrower-than-expected jobless claims print kept the dollar anchored near one-week highs, compressing rate-cut expectations further. source: investing • Salesforce raises FY27 outlook, plans Claudeforce GA. CRM lifted full-year revenue guidance to $46.4B and announced general availability of its Claudeforce AI suite for September, signaling enterprise AI monetization is accelerating. Seeking Alpha commentary framed the quarter as refuting the "SaaSpocalypse" narrative. source: seeking alpha • CrowdStrike surges on AI-driven share gains. Q2 results showed the cybersecurity firm capturing incremental market share through AI-integrated offerings, with analysts flagging the print as evidence of durable competitive differentiation in endpoint security. source: seeking alpha • Oil extends decline on Hormuz diplomacy. Qatar-Iran discussions around a temporary Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor eased supply-disruption premia, pushing crude lower for a second session. European gas held steady near one-week lows on the same catalyst. source: investing Summary Tech earnings — led by Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike — validated the AI capex cycle, but hawkish rhetoric from both the Fed and ECB, combined with sticky inflation prints, kept broader risk sentiment in check. The mixed 🟡 read reflects a market bifurcated between AI beneficiaries and rate-sensitive laggards. Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 26, 2026, YTD) Return: +3.39% Sharpe: 0.50 Volatility: 7.71% Max Drawdown: 6.53% — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 26, 2026, YTD) Return: +3.39% Sharpe: 0.50 Volatility: 7.71% Max Drawdown: 6.53% — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 26, 2026, YTD) Return: +3.39% Sharpe: 0.50 Volatility: 7.71% Max Drawdown: 6.53% — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT Eight times since 2000 the S&P 500 dropped 10% from a record high. Four turned into crashes, four recovered. On the day it happened, the numbers looked the same in every case. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Market Week · 17-21 August 2026 The S&P 500 fell 1.9% over four sessions. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a pledge of sweeping new sanctions on Iran repriced crude 6.6% higher, the Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks with the 30-year near 5.25%, the Philadelphia Fed index printed its highest reading since April 2021, and Moderna posted the largest one-day gain by any S&P 500 constituent this century. Seven earnings reactions from retail week, the macro tape, and what the week leaves behind - in the slides. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. #markets #macro #quant #research #SP500
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Market Week · 17-21 August 2026 The S&P 500 fell 1.9% over four sessions. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a pledge of sweeping new sanctions on Iran repriced crude 6.6% higher, the Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks with the 30-year near 5.25%, the Philadelphia Fed index printed its highest reading since April 2021, and Moderna posted the largest one-day gain by any S&P 500 constituent this century. Seven earnings reactions from retail week, the macro tape, and what the week leaves behind - in the slides. quantillions.com — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. #markets #macro #quant #research #SP500
— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

— For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

ALT — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer or solicitation. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

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Regime change is a process, not an event. Breadth and cross-asset correlation turned quarters before September 2008. The same sequence preceded the 2022 drawdown. Full note on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/posts/regime-ch…
Regime Change Is a Process, Not an Event | Quantillion

Regime Change Is a Process, Not an Event | Quantillion

Regime Change Is a Process, Not an Event The bells ring for months. Nobody hands out a calendar. — For research purposes only. This is not an investment idea, not investment advice, not a recommend...

linkedin.com
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Quantillion Atlas — daily digest 🟡 Bonds buckle, havens bid — markets caught between fiscal repricing and tactical relief Today's macro pulse: A global sovereign bond selloff collides with US Treasury intervention, as yields spike on both sides of the Atlantic while gold and oil catch safe-haven and geopolitical bids. • US Treasury doubles buyback sizes, long-end yields retreat. Treasury announced it will increase some debt buyback operations to at least $4 billion, providing a technical backstop that pulled 30-year yields off multi-year highs. The move signals growing discomfort with term premium dynamics and offers near-term duration relief. source: investing.com • Eurozone bonds extend selloff; German 10y hits 15-year high. European sovereign yields surged to nearly two-decade levels, driven by defense spending commitments and fiscal expansion expectations. Germany's borrowing costs are at levels not seen since 2011, repricing the post-GFC fiscal compact. source: investing.com • Oil grinds higher as US-Iran Hormuz standoff persists. Crude extended gains near three-week highs with no resolution on Strait of Hormuz transit security. The geopolitical risk premium remains embedded while diplomatic channels show little progress. source: investing.com • Gold rallies post-buyback; UBS reiterates $5,400 target. Bullion extended gains after the Treasury buyback announcement weakened the dollar's yield advantage. UBS maintains its $5,400 price target, citing persistent central bank demand and fiscal deficit concerns as structural tailwinds. source: investing.com • Wall Street rebounds from tech-led slump as yields ease. US equities opened higher, recovering from the prior session's semiconductor-driven selloff. The yield retreat provided mechanical relief, though earnings season remains the near-term catalyst — Estée Lauder surged on an FY27 profit forecast that exceeded consensus. source: investing.com • India's RBI signals impending rate hikes on inflation trajectory. The rate panel flagged rising inflation risks and signaled possible tightening, marking a hawkish pivot for the world's fifth-largest economy. Timing remains data-dependent but the directional bias is unambiguous. source: investing.com Summary Markets are navigating a fiscal repricing regime where sovereign bond supply overwhelms demand globally, while the US Treasury's buyback expansion offers a tactical pressure valve. The mixed 🟡 tone reflects equities finding short-term footing even as the bond-commodity complex signals deeper structural stress. Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.21% Sharpe: 0.63 Volatility: 7.72% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material. #Quantillion #Atlas #MarketSentiment #QuantResearch #MacroPulse #Yields #Hormuz #RiskOff
Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.21% Sharpe: 0.63 Volatility: 7.72% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material.

ALT Quantillion Atlas — Researched Return (Jan 01–Aug 18, 2026, YTD) Return: +4.21% Sharpe: 0.63 Volatility: 7.72% Max Drawdown: 6.53% See attached chart for performance details. This post is part of Quantillion Research output and does not constitute investment advice or promotional material.

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