Dutching Vauban and The Euphrates in the Geelong Cup, clearly the best two imo. Wooton Verni not the worst at longer odds if it can run the trip, worth thinking an EW play. LITZDEEL should be peaking so a decent chance here.

People on the left have been making this face an awful lot the last week. Come back to the middle, and reality where you can question and query each individual thing on its merit

the current trend in net worth is a little worse than 2011 but not as bad as 2008. cycles roughly average around 12 months with a bottom around 5-6 months. either way, some pain is coming in 2027, but how much? the biggest risk is the RBA not cutting quickly enough

the scariest part about the left going off the rails and allowing chaos is there are no good opposing candidates to vote for. dark days

KYR 1.04 on world pool .. tempted $16 🤔

these four are clearly the best horses in each race, have very high % of winning and justify being in a multi. you can make the case for some upsets but based on % this is the way to go. 1/9.75 = 10.5% implied prob of hitting, when it is more like 40% in reality

i asked AI to make a midterms dashboard for me, using the top 3 unbiased polls (if there are any) and it came up with this.. the big caveat being D51 senate IF poll leading Ds hang on to win

the trend in job ads has been higher, while unemployment is treading water

the trend in unemployment is still in no-mans land, but with only a few months before declines in net worth trends hit, you would def need to be concerned

full time employment trending higher, which is the one to watch imo

i have taken TTM out of calculations due to the quick backup and pulling up lame on the weekend. seems pretty mad to risk it

First look at the Caulfield Cup and I have: Cosmic Crusader (deserved fav) Shes a Hustler Half Yours Royal Supremacy KNIGHT'S CHOICE, MIDDLE EARTH, ENFJAAR & GREEN SPACES all should be ready to peak prep wise, but have big queries

i listened to PodSave talking about the midterms. to them, the main issues are: Trump lying about the economy the impact of the economy new forever war trump policy choices are about benefiting donors and corporations data centres no mention about a bigger geopolitical game 😳

.. not ideal we cant have a US 2008 crisis because our loans arent as dodgy, but if you trigger a decline in spending>rise in unemployment cycle, is there really much of a difference in the end?

trend in net worth, at this rate, will be around 2019/2023 levels before we know it - with plenty of downside to go. real chance whatever slowdown follows is still going on by federal election, which would be bad for Albo. things could def go up a notch in the next 2 years

the trend down in corelogic home price index seems to be on track for a -10-15% move by mid 2027 at this stage - however we still dont really know how well all the different players will handle rising debt servicing costs/rising real rates, and what happens to UE

rando decent race tonight, Cranbourne R7. LA FRACAS great EW bet (10.0/3.0) first up specialist with best sectionals and decent barrier.

the trend in job ads continues to rise the trend in employment is flat to down 🤷‍♂️

gov expenses for July/Aug finally out today. looks like we are likely seeing a rise in "new claims" and maybe even "continuing claims" but the overall trend in UE is not rising much .. meaning more new/inactive are entering the workforce