Shout-out to the team at Climate Acceptance Studios @ClimateAccept. They translated our research on global willingness to act against climate change into a short video. More info on the initiative: wearethemajority.earth/ Paper here: nature.com/articles/s41558-0…

3⃣ Yet, the majority believes they are in the minority: people systematically underestimate others' willingness to fight climate change. In basically all 125 countries, and to a large extent.

2⃣ The willingness to act on climate change is significantly higher in countries most affected by it. Conversely, richer nations show a somewhat lower willingness.

1⃣ 69% of people worldwide are willing to contribute 1% of their income to fight climate change. 86% say people should try to fight climate change. And an astonishing 89% demand intensified political action.

Hello world! We can share some good news today. 🌍 Support for climate action is widespread across the globe and much larger than it is perceived. 🌍 Our new article is out in Nature Climate Change: nature.com/articles/s41558-0… w/ @TeodoraBoneva1 @FelixChopra @Armin_Falk

Thanks for reading this thread! 👍👍 Check out the paper at drive.google.com/file/d/1-_V… Mental Models of the Stock Market w/ @ph_schirmer and @JoWohlfart

Here, we classify the explanations of respondents. Almost all academic experts refer to efficient markets and use logic in line with risk-based asset pricing. Households and financial professionals neglect equilibrium pricing.

Well, here is what our respondents think. Academic experts think that stale news do NOT matter for expected returns. By contrast, 60-80% of households and financial professionals believe that stale news matters, e.g. - stale good news ➡️ higher future expected returns

🚨 New paper! 🚨 w/ @ph_schirmer @JoWohlfart Stock markets revolve around return expectations, which traders form in light of their deeper understanding – their mental model – of the market ... ... which we know very little about. Time to change this! drive.google.com/file/d/1-_V…

We also find that narratives change over time – and they can do so quite fast. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a war narrative appeared, crowding out pandemic-related explanations. And many more people referred to rising energy prices.

🚨 Results time! 🚨 The figure below shows the "average narrative" among laypeople and experts. What characterizes laypeople's narratives? - simpler and more fragmented - focus less on demand side - highly politicized - a non-expert idea: price-gouging & corporate greed

Step 2: In surveys, we ask people to explain to us in open text why they think inflation has increased. We use Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) to quantitatively represent the causal structure behind their arguments. The result: A fascinating causal graph for each individual. E.g.

How important are economic narratives? Short story: Very important! Narratives affect how people interpret economic news and forecast the future. Our new WP studies the stories people tell about the rise in inflation. drive.google.com/file/d/1-2e… w/ @cp_roth @JoWohlfart @Ingar30 🧵

For the monetary policy shock, average views differ strikingly between laypeople and experts. Both predict: unemployment ⬆️. But experts predict inflation ⬇️, while most laypeople predict inflation ⬆️. Laypeople tend to think of MP shocks as inflationary ⚠️