Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system. His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028. By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely. The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there. And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills. Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners. This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy. We discuss: - Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel - Why we can't just shut off exports - 2028 as the inflection point - Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs - Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:30 What Drives the Deficit 11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up 20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis 25:05 Winners and Losers 29:00 Nuclear and Solar 33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill 37:20 AI’s Next Shortage 45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes 51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight