@prop4cast

Real estate data nerd. Market trends, regional insights, and (lots of) charts.

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propertyforecast.co/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=profile
Joined October 2024
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You can now research, discover, and analyze real estate markets entirely through conversation Property Forecast MCP server turns Claude, ChatGPT, or any AI agent into your real estate research assistant with direct access to the latest data and forecasts Live now 🚀
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Miami seeing some oversupply dynamics playing out right now 13% vacancy rate 15% absorption rate (monthly) 88 days on market (median) 21% of sellers cutting prices
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related charts 👀
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forgot to install the Property Forecast MCP server
Parcl
@ParclMar 2
claude, tell me if the housing market is going to crash. make no mistakes.
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the seasonal floor for new listings is in -- February just turned the corner (as usual) expect a significant jump in inventory over the next 2-3 months 📈
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LA has the lowest rent-to-price ratio of any major metro at 0.31% monthly (3.7% annual) Compare to the US at 0.53% monthly (6.4% annual) or Chicago at 0.63% monthly (7.6% annual) If you're buying for cash flow, look to Midwest and Southern markets
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Fastest growing states over the past 5 years: Idaho: +12.6% Utah: +9.5% Florida: +7.2%
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Austin vs Nashville pullback trends since 2022 have been an interesting comparison case study
Property Forecast
@prop4castFeb 14
Keep an eye on population vs housing growth in your market - a disconnect is a strong leading indicator of an eventual pullback Austin: +48% housing, +40% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -6.0% YoY Nashville: +34% housing, +30% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -0.3% YoY
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Keep an eye on population vs housing growth in your market - a disconnect is a strong leading indicator of an eventual pullback Austin: +48% housing, +40% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -6.0% YoY Nashville: +34% housing, +30% pop (since 2012) ➡️ home values -0.3% YoY
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Some seasonal housing market psychology: Days on market reliably peaks in January Price drop rate usually peaks end of summer The winter slowdown is expected and sellers stay patient, but in the summer there's an implied sense of urgency to close
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Of course some other factors at play too... e.g. more inventory in the summer -> more pricing competition
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US housing absorption hits 25.5% -- lowest since 2019 Down -2.7% MoM and -7.6% YoY 📉 Watch closely for February's (typical) seasonal rebound. Will be an important signal on outlook for the rest of the year.
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Some regions already seeing a post-winter rebound: Atlanta: +6.1% MoM Boston: +5.3% MoM Indianapolis: +5.1% MoM Austin: +2.1% MoM Dallas: +1.2% MoM Keep an eye on your local market 👀
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Two important nuances here: 1) household size in the US is at an all time low (~2.5) so more demand per capita 2) geographic mismatch between where there is housing surplus and where people actually want to live
Jon Brooks
@jonbrooksJan 30
Everyone keeps saying America has a “housing shortage.” It doesn’t. Divide total homes by population and you get this: We’ve never had more housing per person than we do right now. The problem isn’t supply. It’s prices.
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Digging into the latest @uscensusbureau ACS5 5-year data 👀 Some quick interesting findings... Population change over the last decade: Houston leads at +24.8% compared to the US overall at +8.3% over the same period
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more replies
Owner occupied rates have continued downwards in expensive major metros... But trending sharply upwards in some Sun Belt markets and slightly upwards in the US overall
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.... much more to come!
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Jackson, MS leads all major metros at 0.76% rent-to-price ratio $1,548 rent / $204k home value
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The new ACS5 data release will available on Property Forecast later today!
U.S. Census Bureau
@uscensusbureauJan 29
Just Released: #AmericanCommunitySurvey data on educational attainment, income, poverty, households and families, and more. Explore #ACSdata highlights. census.gov/newsroom/press-re…
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ACS 5-year data drops tomorrow
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