Hallowed imprint

San Francisco, CA
Joined August 2009
Violate the copyright on every single book ever written, get a trillion dollar valuation, pay 0.1% of that in a class action settlement to book authors, cool cool. Someone comes in and legally pays to use your API and then saves the logs, and uses the logs later, BAD BAD k k
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Fall 2026: OpenAI is raising $500b at $7t. Cursor just rejected a $500b offer. Neolab & robotics seed rounds start at $150b Houses in SF cost $100m for a 1800sqft 2 bed 1 bath Every SaaS unicorn from 2010-2024 claims they are ML but they still cant raise more at any valuation
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"like a quivering mass implementing Multi-Armed Bandit on ideas at a super high velocity."
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Have heard from multiple hyperscalers now "if we overbuild compute, no big deal, we will just sell the excess capacity" And well if everyone has the strategy of overbuilding and selling the excess there will be no buyers of the excess when/if that time comes.
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"All of this is because the algorithm is the easy part. The infra is the pain in the ass." @shaneguML made a similar point Saturday The systems so complex, the scale so large, ability for a bug to kill results, the delivery of innovation not the paper is the hard part now.
Aight let's talk about frameworks, libraries, RL, and why I probably don't like your favorite RL codebase. Yes, including that one. The unusual thing about RL is that the algorithm is the easy part. GRPO is a single-line equation on some logprobs. If you have the data, computing the loss is trivial, and then presumably you're using it with a backprop library of your choice. But that's the problem -- getting the data. It's a pain in the ass. In regular RL you have to do rollouts, perhaps truncate some episodes, and handle the ends accordingly. If you don't want to be a snail, you'll want to vectorize the environment and adapt the algorithm for that. If you want to do an LLM, you need to do all the nonsense that makes LLMs fit in memory. You need to be careful about your prompts, mask out the right parts for the loss. You need a decent generation engine (vLLM), which then makes it a pain to update the weights. If you want to do multi-agent multi-turn LLM RL, might as well do commit sudoku. While we have many disagreements on just about anything RL-related, I think @jsuarez's Pufferlib exemplifies this point beautifully. It's without a doubt incredible at what it does - training RL algos on simulated environments very very quickly. But most of its novelty is pure infra. The core algorithms are largely the same as they've been for years, and I'm willing to bet they represent less than 10% of the overall engineering effort. Naturally, this has implications on the code you need to write to do anything beyond running the built-in examples. What I find time and time again, is that for many sufficiently nontrivial (read: interesting) research problems, it takes a similar amount of time to (a) write the thing from scratch/from simple primitives, or (b) adapt an existing framework to accommodate crazy ideas. In the former, you focus on writing the actual logic. In the latter, you wrangle the framework to allow you to add the logic. I know what I like better. All of this is because the algorithm is the easy part. The infra is the pain in the ass. So whenever you're in a position to choose - use the tools that simplify infra, and write the training loop yourself. Don't build frameworks, build libraries. You'll thank yourself later. Big shout out to my Master's supervisor from back in the day, who was the first one to tell me to drop rllib and just write PPO myself in PyTorch. And to @hallerite for inspiring me to finally write up this rant. I might write a proper effortpost with examples at some point in the future if the people demand it.
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Stagnant Culture is apparently not just people listening to the Beatles forever but also that we will be talking about Epstein scandals, and hearing about Pete campaigning in Iowa, and all about Taylor's latest for the rest of our lives. Ughhh hard reset where please please
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If any random 15 year old can rip out a 'business' with vibe code -- is it actually a business at all? Simply having a Stripe account and a website is not real? or is it? Certainly then there is no moat there, no pricing power, and people will just vibe that same code out themselves instead of pay but also the revenue of some things that have only existed via the thinest of pretenses for very short periods of time is sometimes astounding Bubble times allow those to exist perhaps, frictional changes in new technologies create their windows to pivot to something real before the window slams shut. Or maybe it is just all the new lottery economy 101 and even 15 year olds can pull the slot machine handle of GPT coder.
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Worst part about this long sorried criminal history is not that it ended up in only 2 years of jail time it is that the jury it took to convict this person served 4.8 years of mandatory court time away from their jobs, their family, their freedom.
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Wonder if users do not care at all that ChatGPT generates answers using an LLM they just want a simple text answer to their question fast An answer that is not behind 4 popups, a cookie banner, an auto-playing ad and bloated web UI Just 10 blue links again & GOOG would be fine
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Blackouts? No not power company incompetence, AI data centers! Water shortage? No not the desert alfalfa farming, AI data centers! Stock market down? No not because of tariffs or erratic WH, AI bubble bursting! The new omni-excuse for everything bad, blame ML!
if I was a CEO doing layoffs of course I would claim it’s because ai is making things more efficient it removes all liability of poor decision / hiring choices from the company companies are going to keep claiming ai is causing them to do layoffs, not because it’s true, but because it makes them look good
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If narrative around ML becomes 5,000 weird poly 20 year olds in SF got dynastically wealthy and you lost your job, and your kids got addicted to slop ML videos, and their huge new data centers are using all the water and your power bill is going up Backlash will be fierce.
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Many sci-fi books start with the premise ~90% of humanity has been wiped out then what. Unfortunately seems like we don't need to wonder what happens then we can just study Syria or Venezuela.
Ah, that must be why 26% of Venezuela's population has fled the country since 2014. Too much freedom.
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Mayor @MattMahanSJ said it the other night when talking about crime downtown being down and people still not feeling safe: When the citizen feeling and the data is not matching up there is likely something wrong with the measure. Bezos used to say the same thing and had a famous show down with an exec in a large meeting about how long the customer service call wait time was. They just dialed customer service up right there in the meeting and waited far far longer than the exec reported time. Feels that way with the economy right now for many as well. Markets up, fed stats strong but everyone feeling bad about their own finances. With official data sources shut down, currently economists/policy makers cant just use their old favorite gold standard measure and have to look other measures perhaps more accurately showing what people have been saying they are feeling for a while now. Wonder how much of the 2028 cycle will be politicians breaking from traditional elite consensus of things like 'crime is down in our cities just look at the data' but without being anti-science, anti-fact, anti-institution. Instead questioning the measure and its validity, or expanding the question away from partial analysis...
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Synthetic voter profiles to test messages and media against are going to be a big thing next cycle. Campaigns spend on compute might be an interesting thing to watch. What candidate is going to have the highest OpenAI bill?
This paper shows that you can predict actual purchase intent (90% accuracy) by asking an LLM to impersonate a customer with a demographic profile, giving it a product & having it give its impressions, which another AI rates. No fine-tuning or training & beats classic ML methods.
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What big lab is going to be the first to put a datacenter right in Prudhoe Bay and wire it up directly to oil pipelines.
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Any AI bubble wont be like previous crashes Sure 12 figure circular buying is weird, OpenAI corp structure insane but even bigger: ~34% of the S&P 500 is mag7 now Risk in a arXiv paper or model drop, kills datacenter need->craters sp500 via mag7->consumer recession kicks off
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It always struck me as weird that planes do not have better (any) radio-to-text transcription in the cockpit or at least a way to replay tower transmissions for comprehension. FAA just makes everything so slow and expensive to adopt.
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Bad that we even need this, but I always thought it would be interesting for someone to build a building in Detroit that straddled the border with Canada to host cross country meetings/conferences with no immigration needed Like a big auditorium with a glass divider down middle
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Cost of compute might well go up in the next few years. Everyone was conditioned over the last few decades to assume that algorithmic improvements are guaranteed and Moore's Law will take care of it. Now Moore's is dead and electricity costs are going up fast.
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Lots of people betting the same old SaaS playbook works again with ML bolted on When vibe code exists, the customer knows their use case better than some new founder and is not paying 90% margins for pretty UI More likely variable use billing beats out $9/seat/month pricing
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