Let's take a look at how Seattle's JumpStart tax actually turned out. In 2020, Seattle passed a payroll tax on its largest employers: $7 million-plus in payroll, on every employee earning $150,000 or more — on their whole pay, not the excess. The pitch was in the name: tax the biggest paychecks at the biggest companies, fund housing and COVID recovery, and jumpstart the city's economy. Here's what actually happened: Amazon kept building across the lake. In 2023 it began shifting another 2,000 Seattle employees to Bellevue, toward a planned 25,000 there. Downtown Seattle has lost about 30,000 jobs since 2020. Office vacancy in the core is 32%. Office values fell 48% — more than $10 billion of taxable value gone. Bellevue, with no payroll tax, added jobs and its office values rose 7%. Same metro, same industries, same five years. The tax is missing its own targets. This year it's forecast at about $388 million, below earlier estimates, partly because the high-paying jobs it taxes are leaving. Seventy percent of the revenue comes from ten companies. The Downtown Seattle Association puts the cost at $1,450 to $9,390 per job. Seattle's answer in 2025: a second payroll tax, 5% on pay above $1 million, no employer minimum. Those numbers are the DSA's, a business group's audit. But the control group is next door. Olympia tried to take it statewide anyway. HB 2100 — 5% on pay above $125,000 — died in March. The 9.9% income tax is scheduled to take effect January 1, 2028. The argument is always the same: it only hits those who can afford it. But companies pick a side of the lake. Founders pick a state. Incentives matter. Every time. downtownseattle.org/2026/06/…