A @Polymarket trader is taking a contrarian bet on the 2025 box office. With the Minecraft Movie odds up to ~98%, they're backing the soon-to-release Avatar 3 instead, risking $2k for a potential $110k payout. Despite Avatar 1 and 2 holding the #1 and #3 all-time highest grossing movies, the market is pricing timing risk over franchise strength.

Keep building :)

MegaETH has ~500m committed with 48 hours left. To clear 1B, it needs another ~10 million per hour from here. A ton of fresh (or close to it) wallets are piling in especially on the NO side. If inflows slow, the 6-7x return may be quite appealing. Keep an eye out in the coming hours, as this volume is likely international-dominated (given the fewer restrictions). If you're ever curious what whale flow looks like on this market, you can check out PrediEdge :)

Very interesting market here; On the surface, there's been a couple sizable buys here in the past 12h, including a fresh wallet and another trader that's continuing to add to their 64k share stack (while typically having a 3 figure trade size). These buys have spiked odds from 32% to 50%+. At the same time, however, there are also multiple fresh wallets on the no side buying up 10k+ shares each. Just for some context, here are the largest single position, fresh wallet holders (all October 2025 wallet creation dates): YES: Wallet #1 (46k shares @ 44c avg) Wallet #2 (30k shares @ 40c avg) Wallet #3 (12.9k shares @ 42c avg) Wallet #4 (10.8k shares @ 32c avg) NO: Wallet #1 (13k shares @ 39c avg) Wallet #2 (12.5k shares @ 36c avg) Wallet #3 (9.3k shares @ 43c avg) While speculative, it's possible that a few traders are deliberately stirring volatility, aiming to buy both sides for <$1 total to guarantee profit no matter what happens. Why not just do it on the same wallet? So that people think they're insiders, and depending on which trades they see, continue to increase the volatility making it easier for them to balance both sides. The share count doesn't add up perfectly, but with this many fresh wallets, it's highly likely that at least some of these YES & NO wallets are owned by the same traders aiming for at least 20% risk-free returns. If you're trading this, no shares might be the better risk/reward side here; yes is overexposed if their goal is to be delta neutral & time decay favors you. Still risky either way though.

That’s exactly the goal 😉

This is one of a @Polymarket trader's many buys on Satoshi moving any Bitcoin in 2025... he's invested over 8k in the past 30 minutes to win over 88k if this happens. Unless this is Satoshi himself it seems quite unlikely, but what does he know? 🤔

This @Polymarket trader is looking to become an overnight millionaire, winning over 1.1 million if this resolves to yes. A completely fresh wallet has bet over $2.7k in the past 12h on a disputed market, and seem to wish for UMA to side in their favor. With stakes so high, could it be a UMA whale or voter?

This is an interesting example of noise you can likely countertrade. Unless this is an insider (more likely to be a degen based on past trading activity), he's betting against something Jesse essentially confirmed. So the market is essentially giving it a 11% chance that Jesse's word can't be trusted... but he doesn't have much of an incentive to lie; If anything he'd want to be hyping it up. For Coinbase, a publicly-traded crypto company, it'd make sense to be risk-averse here and wait to make sure everything is in order before rushing to launch a token. Attached a clip of Jesse commenting on this below xitter.cf/11amdotclub/status/196…

The highly controversial Lord Miles market is starting to see a couple fresh wallets making buys here in the 16-18c range. Not super convinced that this will go in their favor, but interested to hear your thoughts.