Weekend Report → Big headlines, flat markets. What moved the midterm odds this weekend, and what didn’t.

Kansas Senate is a real race 🌻 - Our model: Hamilton (D) 46.2% - Polymarket: Hamilton 38.5%, matching his best since September - Up from 25.5% on Sept 20 - RealClearPolling average: tied, 45.8 to 45.8 Trump rallied for Marshall yesterday. Hamilton's odds haven't budged.

D+5 on our model still means 97% D house control and a median around 225 seats. The house flips well before this

Polymarket’s Michigan D went 73.5 → 69.5% since oct 5. Kalshi chart shows the same slide. ‘heightened scrutiny’ is showing up, slowly

Texas senate D is 64.5% on Polymarket tonight, exactly the same as D senate control (64.5%). up 2 since last week. Votehub’s tilt D lines up

Votehub says tilt R and Polymarket agrees, hinson 58 / turek 42. 6.3% of the vote in, so the early numbers are mostly the D-heavy part of the state voting first

Ohio senate D finally moved on Polymarket, 61.5 → 64.5% after two weeks flat. Brown’s now priced a point higher than D senate control itself (63.5%

Silver’s polling average is D+9, our model’s fundamentals-based median is D+6. Polymarket’s centered between them at D+8-10. 3 pts is a lot of house seats

Morning Report→ Texas set early-vote records. The market gave Talarico 1 point. What moved, what didn’t, and Trump’s seven-rally week.

Trump told voters to pretend he’s on the ballot. So here’s the ballot: he’s underwater in every poll, −21 on average. Clinton sat at 46% approval before 1994, and his party lost 52 House seats. Trump is at 39%, well below that line. The market agrees. Dems 91.5% House, 64.5% Senate.

Polymarket already has D favored in all four of these: TX-28 91.5%, TX-34 83%, TX-15 82.5%, TX-35 61.5%. that’s ~3.2 of 4 seats. the map’s backfiring in the market already

Fox has D needing 5 of 7 toss-ups for control, R needing 4. Polymarket still has D at 64.5%, so the market thinks dems get there more often than not

Maine is drifting back toward our model 🦞 🔵Our model: Jackson (D) 67.8% 🔵Polymarket: Jackson 63.5% 📉Market dropped from 73.5% to 56.5% in late Sept, now climbing back 🔼Up 4 pts in the last two days

26% of the vote in and Ossoff’s modeled at 55.6-63.2% of it. Even if the rest breaks hard R, poly’s 96% D looks about right

NC senate is already 96% D on Polymarket, so the early vote isn’t moving it. NC-01’s where it shows up: D went 61.5 → 69.5% since oct 7

Early voting is open in 35 states 🗳️ - Battleground states voting now: TX, OH, IA, ME, NC, GA, AK, WI, NV, AZ - Michigan, Florida, New York, New Jersey open Saturday (Oct 24) - Kentucky is last to open (Oct 29) 14 days to Election Day.

Cook just moved 11 House races toward Democrats. 🔵 FL-25: Toss Up → Lean D 🔵 OH-01: Lean D → Likely D 🔴 MT-01: Lean R → Toss Up 🔴 MN-01, NY-21, OH-10, OH-15, SC-01: Likely R → Lean R 🔴 FL-16, KS-02, NE-01: Solid R → Likely R Half the moves are in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas. The Midwest is where the environment is biting hardest 👀

Ohio Senate just moved 📈 - Polymarket: Husted (R) 33.5% → 36.5% in about an hour this afternoon - Volume jumped ~$24K on the move - Our model: Brown (D) 64.3%. Brown still favored. Fresh poll: ActiVote has it Husted 50.2, Brown 49.8 (Sept 26–Oct 18, 400 LV)

CNN’s two scenarios are basically the edges of our model. R 52 is our 5th percentile (48 D), D 54 is near our 95th. median’s 51. polymarket’s 63.5% D is pricing the middle, not either end

Trump rallies in Kansas today. Our mention plays 🎤 - "Diesel" YES (67%): ag state, fuel costs on the stump - "Made in America" YES (75%): staple rally line - "Gulf of America" YES (43%): best value on the board Farm-state crowd, campaign-trail staples.