Tool-Assisted Melee content creator & record holder・DM or https://xitter.cf/t.co/sNuwHQ8pj3 to 💬・views=mine
Joined November 2015
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INTRODUCING
Super Smash Bros Melee's Home Run Contest Iceberg!
Full explanation in my first new video in almost 4 years! Go watch it now!
Andrew Nestico retweeted
Dont worry, this slop is 100% human! Good old fashion human garbage! Robots WISH they could produce this trash! (Throwaways Vol. 48)
I've started tracking how my simulator pans out against the actual results of 2027's regionals. Below are the results so far.
Baltimore Juniors might stand out. It had a 76% chance of 7-1-2 cut prior to the tournament, but ended up with a 7-2-1 cut. (1/4)
Good Morning Baltimore!
Today is the first regional championship of the 2027 Pokemon season. My simulator gives the masters division's 3123 players a 67% chance of an X-1-2 cut, for now.
I've also built a small webpage to present my data, check it out!
avnestico.com/swiss/
However, that didn't happen. They paired into each other but played their matches out.
The odds of an X-1-2 cut immediately dropped to 0%.
Of these 4 players, all quite likely to dodge assym entirely if they had ID'd twice, 1 failed to make cut and 1 lost in assym. (4/4)
If you want to play around with the sim yourself, you can find it at avnestico.com/swiss. (5/4)
Good Morning Baltimore!
Today is the first regional championship of the 2027 Pokemon season. My simulator gives the masters division's 3123 players a 67% chance of an X-1-2 cut, for now.
I've also built a small webpage to present my data, check it out!
avnestico.com/swiss/
You can now see for yourself how changing the global tie rate and 5-2-0 ID rate can have a drastic impact on the top cut probability. If the tie rate drops to 11%, the probability of an X-1-2 cut jumps all the way up to 97%!
(Also, small changes to the curves may happen later)
Andrew Nestico retweeted
Some other things that I want to mention that the history books tend to not mention…
- I made the tier list once
- I advocated for the acknowledgment of low tiers in early theoretical models of how combat in SSBM works
- I contributed to that body of work (Cactuar’s project)
Player: KirbyKaze
Mains: Sheik
Region: Ontario, Canada
Years active: 2009-2018, 2023
Peak Global Rank: 6th, 2012
Best Wins: Mango, PPMD, Hungrybox
Summary:
KirbyKaze was one of the first god slayers. Being 6th in the world at the hight of the era means you are the ultimate gate keeper. The line in the sand you must cross to become a legend. Even he would slay gods. Most impressively being in the rarified air of defeating TWO gods in one bracket at ROM3. Kaze is a myth among players today and defined early Canadian Smash. Inventor of the Dynasty Combo
Worlds isn't like other Pokemon tournaments.
The global tie rate across regionals this season was around 15%, so I built that into my simulator. But the tie rate at worlds (797 entrants) was only 11%.
With just this change, the probability of an X-1-2 cut jumps from 47% to 87%!
The Pokemon World Championship starts today!
Pic 1: with 794 players, Masters division has a 45-50% chance that a record of X-2-1 will not be enough to make top cut
Pic 2
Seniors: 376 players, 15-20% chance
Juniors: 389 players, 20-25% chance
You might not want to ID at 5-2-0!
Updated numbers after day 1 are quite stable.
Masters: 46% chance of 9-1-2 cut
Seniors: 22% chance of 8-1-2 cut
Juniors: 20% chance of 8-1-2 cut
Do not give up hope if you're at X-2-1!
Hi Pokemon TCG Twitter, I'm PracticalTAS and today I'm here to tell you why you might not want to Intentionally Draw at 5-2-0
...and drop rate. Both of these data sets were generated using actual 2026 Pokemon TCG tournament data, with some liberties taken to aggregate similar scenarios to make the simulation simpler.
