World Cup starts today. Here’s my strategy for the summer 👇 On @Polymarket, the Winner market sums to ~100¢ split across all 48 teams. Outsiders soak up a surprising share of that, which leaves the teams that actually win World Cups trading cheaper than they should. The stat that matters: only 8 nations have EVER won it. Italy didn’t qualify, Uruguay isn’t close. That leaves 6 past winners + Portugal as the one credible first-timer. So I dutched the basket: 🇫🇷 France 16¢ 🇪🇸 Spain 16¢ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 11¢ 🇵🇹 Portugal 11¢ 🇦🇷 Argentina 9¢ 🇧🇷 Brazil 8¢ 🇩🇪 Germany 5¢ 76¢ combined for 7 teams. If any of them lifts the trophy in July, the basket pays roughly +30%. Why I fade the outsiders (Netherlands, Morocco, Japan, Norway) ? Winning this one means 8 straight games against elite opposition. That takes squad depth and consistency that first-time winners historically don’t have. A deep run? Sure. Lifting it? No. And here’s the part most people miss: prices always sum to ~100¢, so every elimination redistributes probability to the survivors. When an outsider goes out, their cents flow into MY teams. Even when one of my legs dies, the other 6 absorb part of it, the basket re-hedges itself every round. Best case: all 4 semifinalists are mine → one of them HAS to win, profit locked before the final is even played. Sized all 7 legs with equal payouts in seconds on @polytermtrade thanks to the 1-click trading feature. Dutching this manually across 7 order books would’ve been painful.

World Cup starts today. Here’s my strategy for the summer 👇 On @Polymarket, the Winner market sums to ~100¢ split across all 48 teams. Outsiders soak up a surprising share of that, which leaves the teams that actually win World Cups trading cheaper than they should. The stat that matters: only 8 nations have EVER won it. Italy didn’t qualify, Uruguay isn’t close. That leaves 6 past winners + Portugal as the one credible first-timer. So I dutched the basket: 🇫🇷 France 16¢ 🇪🇸 Spain 16¢ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 11¢ 🇵🇹 Portugal 11¢ 🇦🇷 Argentina 9¢ 🇧🇷 Brazil 8¢ 🇩🇪 Germany 5¢ 76¢ combined for 7 teams. If any of them lifts the trophy in July, the basket pays roughly +30%. Why I fade the outsiders (Netherlands, Morocco, Japan, Norway) ? Winning this one means 8 straight games against elite opposition. That takes squad depth and consistency that first-time winners historically don’t have. A deep run? Sure. Lifting it? No. And here’s the part most people miss: prices always sum to ~100¢, so every elimination redistributes probability to the survivors. When an outsider goes out, their cents flow into MY teams. Even when one of my legs dies, the other 6 absorb part of it, the basket re-hedges itself every round. Best case: all 4 semifinalists are mine → one of them HAS to win, profit locked before the final is even played. Sized all 7 legs with equal payouts in seconds on @polytermtrade thanks to the 1-click trading feature. Dutching this manually across 7 order books would’ve been painful.