Toa Alta, Puerto Rico
Joined November 2015
Odds of $SPCX + $TSLA combo just inched up. The question came up on the call. Elon says he thinks it’s a good idea, and there are a lot of merits to combining the companies, but shareholders still have to be supportive. Believe me, shareholders would support this. Elon says there are special committees at request of shareholders to discuss the topic. He is a conflicted party so he can't be in the conversation. My take: 95% chance in the next two years.
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Elon Musk today on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla: "Both Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees at the request of shareholders. Because I'm a conflicted party I can't be in on these discussions. I don't think we should assume that a merger is a certainty. Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes. But at the end of the day, shareholders have to be supportive of this. The special committees have not reached an agreement on any transaction, and it doesn't mean they will, but there is a lot of be gained from cooperating on SI, chip design, robots, mass or orbit, connectivity. I think it would be a good idea."
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SpaceX has announced that Grok @Bot now has 800,000 paid weekly users as of earlier this month, more than doubling from the previous month.
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SpaceX has just released its Q3 earnings results. Highlights: • Revenue: $14.58B (+161% YoY; vs. $12.7B est) • Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B (+306% YoY) • Net income (GAAP): $4.40B (vs. $1.05B loss YoY) • Capex: $19.59B (+185% YoY) • Starlink subs: 13.6M (+89% YoY) • Cash & marketable securities: $90B Revenue by segment: • Space: $1.77B (+6% YoY) • Connectivity: $5.25B (+69% YoY) • SI (formerly AI): $7.56B (+830% YoY) • 1.7 GW of compute installed
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PoloX retweeted
BREAKING: SpaceX crushes Wall Street revenue expectations, bringing in $14,580,000,000.00 in Q3.
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There's a lot of speculation around an incoming SpaceX and Tesla merger Here's 8 ways both companies BENEFIT IF it happens: 1. Investment-grade debt instead of private credit $TSLA has $43.5B of cash and did $4.7B of operating cash flow last quarter. $SPCX is seeking $40B of debt just for NVIDIA chips and Morgan Stanley estimates it needs ~$84B of outside capital per YEAR through 2034 A combined company funds this with cash flow and investment-grade debt instead of private credit. Saving even 2-3 points of interest on $40B is $1B+ a year, and that compounds across the entire buildout 2. Starlink replaces cellular in every Tesla Today, carriers collect an estimated $10/month per connected car, a large % of the total Tesla charges. Moving this in-house to Starlink not only means 100% of revenues moves in-house, but also a better product with (eventually) no dead zones 3. Starlink for Robotaxi and Humanoid Robots Cybercabs are already getting built with Starlink inside them, a merger would mean this can come with no additional cost/sale required between the companies 4. Compute at cost and better optionality Tesla has its own training compute today, which doubled in the first half of 2026, but FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus are only just getting started and they will need a LOT more compute SpaceX is already building this out at size with 10GW expected by EOY 2027. Rather than leasing this to Tesla at market prices ($30M/MW ish right now), Tesla's extra demand can simply run on SpaceX compute at cost SpaceX also now has more optionally with their compute. To move between leasing, using for Grok or now using for Tesla products 4. Energy at cost Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage last quarter and xAI/SpaceX is one of Tesla's biggest customers ($430M of mostly Megapack revenue in 2025). Merged, the data centers get Megapacks at cost with guaranteed supply, and yes, that intercompany revenue disappears in consolidation, but it's a wash since it's saved as an expense on the other side 5. Terafab gets built FASTER Terafab today is a joint venture between two separately owned companies, so every major decision crosses two boards, two capital committees, and negotiated cost-sharing agreements. Merged, one owner makes the call and capital moves the same day. Construction starts in December, and that speed advantage compounds through every phase after the first $16.8B. Elon's whole edge is iteration speed, and a JV structure is the opposite of that 6. Killing the duplicate overhead Two public companies means two of everything: two legal departments, two HR orgs, two finance and audit functions, two IR teams, two procurement groups buying from the same suppliers. Combined SG&A is about $11.2B. Cutting 15-25% of the ~$3.4B corporate slice of that is about $0.5-0.9B a year (est). Not the headline reason to merge, but still useful 7. A potential tax arbitrage SpaceX's AI buildout generated $3.7B of losses in the first half alone Merged, those losses offset Tesla's taxable profit at the 21% corporate rate, worth roughly $0.3-1.0B a year Though looks like SpaceX is soon going to generate a profit, so this may be irrelevant after next earnings 8. Combined Data for Training Tesla's fleet generates real-world data, X and Grok have additional data and SpaceX has its own data. Currently Tesla and SpaceX data are separate and have corporate boundaries and conflict disclosure issues Once merged, this can all be combined for more data, all in one place, trained across the same GPU clusters And of course big picture, there is plenty of overlap across all of SpaceX and Tesla products, so having it under one roof means they can build for a more seamless future (see my post below for more details on this) What else am I missing? Also, I remain bullish on both of these companies and both have a spot in my Milk Road PRO portfolio. You can see my entire portoflio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
Elon's endgame w/ Tesla & SpaceX is very clear The idea is to bring the cost of transportation, labour & energy to near 0 He's doing it by building a connectivity & inference cloud in space that powers billions of robots on earth This is how $SPCX gets to a $100 TRILLION market cap, as Elon me mentioned yesterday Whether the 2 companies merge or not (my guess is they do), they have already built the ground work for this master plan to be fulfilled: - Tesla builds and powers the Robots (humanoid, vehicles, etc.) - SpaceX builds the compute and connectivity from Space Let's start with what's being built at SpaceX then I will explain how this connects with whats being built at Tesla 1. Starpship: Giant reusable rockets at massive scale and cost efficiencies (100s of rocket launches/year). He needed to first make getting to space cheap enough so it would be feasible to build products in Space 2. Starlink: Connect the world's devices to a distributed wifi system that works globally with no dead zones through 100s of thousands of satellites orbiting the earth 3. Starmind: Build a distributed inference cloud (compute), which is powered by the Sun and cooled in space and beam it back to earth via Starlink So, essentaily what Elon is building with SpaceX is a global internet and compute system that can enable AI and Robotics anywhere in the world Now let's talk about how this fits with Tesla $TSLA is building the "devices" (aka robots) that will need to use the global internet and compute system 1. Autonomus Vehicles (Cyberabs, Robtaxis, Semi's): A global transportation system that is powered by batteries and runs autonomously through AI, lowering the cost of transportation to near 0 overtime 2. Humanoid Robots: A global workforce that can replace all blue collar work, lowering the cost of labour to near 0 overtime 3. A global energy network: hundreds of thousands of batteries and battery chargers, linked to various energy sources (more and more of that being renewable overtime), postioned in stratgic places to charge all of the these robots (humanoids, AVs, etc.), lowering the cost of energy to near 0 overtime Tesla has built / is building the manufacturing and AI capabilties for all of this to work globally, however, for this to work at scale with millions or even billions of robots (humanoid/AVs), the world needs better connectivity and orders of magnitude more compute. This is exactly the problem SpaceX is solving for Tesla Both companies require infinite amounts more chips to make this all a reality, which is why Tesla and SpaceX joined to launch Terrafab. The largest building in the world and likely to become the the largest chip manufacturer in North America (maybe globally) The impact of what these two companies are building is a world of abundance, where the costs of energy, transportation and labour become a rounding error. The most deflationary impact to ever hit the world This is also why Elon continues to say that SpaceX will become a $100T company, as the combination of SpaceX and Tesla will generate trillions in revenue and easily become the largest valued company on earth The timelines of all of this working at scale is unknown, but many pieces of the puzzle are already being set in place and beginning to make a real impact... ask anyone who owns a Tesla and uses FSD today Full disclosure: SpaceX and Tesla remain core positions in my Milk Road PRO portoflio and I continue to DCA dips in both companies when the market gives me the opportunity. I'm an analyst at Milk Road and you can check out my real-time portfolio here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
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PoloX retweeted
Replying to @Geiger_Capital
Yes, giving shares, which are stakes in the future economy, directly to the people is the way
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Ark Invest: "Tesla has scaled to seven cities across three states, and has completed more than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in ~7 months, ~4x faster than Waymo’s first million. Tesla expects the ramp to accelerate with FSD V15 late this year. Tesla has framed FSD V15 as the gating factor for scaling its robotaxi service."
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case. ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share • ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue • Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model) • ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue • Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B • Market cap of ~$17.5T • Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share • EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B • Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue • Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue • Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue • Total revenue: $1.62T • EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin • Market cap: $20.4T ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case. ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share • ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue • Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model) • ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue • Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B • Market cap of ~$17.5T • Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share • EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B • Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue • Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue • Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue • Total revenue: $1.62T • EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin • Market cap: $20.4T ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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1/ We’ve updated our Tesla model. Robotaxi still comprises the majority of value over the next 5 years, though Optimus sales inflect more here than previously modeled. Tesla is early in scaling robotaxi, but its vertical integration and cost advantages could make it first to widespread service.
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PoloX retweeted
Optimus will build Optimus Prime
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Mo Robotaxis, Mo Safe Transportation
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PoloX retweeted
The new Tesla Roadster accelerates faster than a fighter jet taking off from an aircraft carrier
The new Tesla Roadster produces more thrust than an F-16 fighter jet at military power Roadster Thrust augment: >80 kN (~18,000 lbf) F-16 with F100-PW-229: ~79.2 kN (~17,800 lbf) without afterburner Tesla packed enough cold-gas thrust into a car that exceeds the non-afterburning thrust of an F-16 engine With afterburner, the F-16 exceeds at ~130 kN But the fact this comparison even exists is insane Tesla just pushed automotive engineering deep into aerospace territory
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Note: MANY Tesla executives and rank and file employees have started following SpaceXAI executives, and vice versa, in the last 48 hours.
🆕 @gwynne_shotwell has started following @Tesla Previously followed by: @yacinemtb, @tomzhu_nz, @mttgrmm, @omead, @claybavor & 83 more $SPCX
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PoloX retweeted
Replying to @Teslaconomics
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
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Terafab like you’ve never seen before! 16 October 2026 Snapshots! I was also able to fly from a new location that gave me better access to the site, & I think the drone views bear this out! Big land purchases have continued to expand the site, now over 8,100 acres of buildable land purchases have been made, up from about 6,600 in August! As a reminder, what you see in these images is only phase 1 of what is envisioned as 10 phases of construction, so there are years ahead of land preparation, clearing, reconfiguration & more to build this massive factory, The scale of the effort is truly hard to imagine! I talk about the burn ban being lifted so now crews clearing the site can burn the debris again, & this was in full view today. I show more of the eastern part of the site, specifically the central large, dammed lake that will need to be completely drained and then reclaimed as the building will pass through this area including where the synchrotron for the free electron laser will be constructed. Overall, what I hope this helps you truly appreciate the immense scale involved with this project & the effort levels that will be involved to build the biggest, & arguably most technologically advanced structure on the planet.
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Tesla's Flying Roadster Breaks The Entire Internet (best reactions, memes & more) TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro & Merch Drop 2:18 Streamers React To Flying Roadster (compilation) 4:27 X Reacts To Flying Roadster (memes, trolling & more) 12:33 Ways To Support SUPPORT: ► Flying Roadster Shirt (Limited Edition) smrmerch.com/products/flying… ► SpaceX & Tesla 20 Year Valuation Model patreon.com/solvingthemoneyp… ► AG1 drinkAG1.com/SMR (FREE Welcome Kit: Vitamin D3+K2 & Travel Packs) ► Want More Content? Join Patreon: patreon.com/solvingthemoneyp… ► Browse Merch! smrmerch.com/ ► Subscribe on X (early access to daily videos): xitter.cf/stevenmarkryan/creator…
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PoloX retweeted
Tesla supervised self-driving approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰
Now approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰 Rollout begins soon
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BREAKING: Odds Tesla releases its Optimus humanoid robot by end of year surge +5% following unveiling of the flying Roadster. 12% chance.
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