항상 유동성을 가져라 🧸🎯 𝐩𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭

Joined August 2023
the lion does not concern himself with the thoughts of the plebs h/t @ShaneStoffer
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playrisk retweeted
there is a coin that has churned through holders for the last 5 years, plays a central part in the RWA/tokenization boom, has rapidly growing ARR, just recently announced 100% of revenues go to buybacks, and a chart that's firmly breaking out...
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fc hype 1w odd lots curse.
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the podcast debut for Jeff Yan @tracyalloway and I have an ultra-rare interview with the CEO and co-founder of Hyperliquid Labs about his plan to house the world’s entire financial system open.spotify.com/episode/5Aq…
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lady gaga could never
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playrisk retweeted
2/ Shitpost but The basket that’s been outperforming lately is GARBAGE Beaten down, have been distributing for a while their valuations are now reasonable and their core thesis’s haven’t played out TIA STRK WLD MON
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Sums it up about right onto the next
papertrade is live. let the games begin.
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playrisk retweeted
shoutout to the (very) sharp ppl who discovered $STRK early as well 🙏 @ThePumponomics @beracap @playrisk think most of them are at 0.045-0.06 average entry
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had a good time in SG meeting friends next stop HK and Shanghai if you’re there lmk
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my takeaway: - variational holders want to dump - $PRL is being shilled into your throat at $3b - people are still heavily long in ZEC VVV NEAR with bleak outlook on other alts - RFV bets making a comeback
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Replying to @AvgJoesCrypto
$coupons Hold it and get rewards In pons tokens. 25% of supply burned so holders benefit extra from that
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Don’t think the market is understanding what is happening here - $SDEV is being short squeeze with an active ATM facility - last filling showed $85m ATM remaining - I estimate the ATM to be exhausted and a larger one being filed - accounting for ATM dilution mNAV is 9x down from 11x at $11 /s - estimate is 22.1m new shared issued That’s $81m going into $SKY, given 75% of the supply is staked SDEV now has to buy 1/5th of the truefloat ($553.5m mc at 0.0944) This is BEFORE a new ATM gets filed—into a chart that sits at resistance and hasn’t had a single price discovery event in 2 years HIGHER
75% of the $SKY token supply is staked That doesn’t leave a lot of tokens for the DAT to buy from… app.sky.money/stake
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75% of the $SKY token supply is staked That doesn’t leave a lot of tokens for the DAT to buy from… app.sky.money/stake
🤖 Made with AI
I like ethereum:0x56072c95faa701256059aa122697b133aded9279 here because the apparent squeeze in SDEV could finance a substantial spot bid that takes weeks to deploy R01 and Framework hold approximately 87.6% of disclosed common shares, leaving roughly 6.4M outside those blocks, against around 1.2M reported shares short. Concentrated ownership and restrictions on large-holder resales help explain why the stock can move so aggressively. At the October 1 close, SDEV traded at approximately 3.7x warrant-adjusted NAV, it already has a $100M ATM facility, with $84.5M remaining at the last disclosed July update. My working estimate is around $30M of potential ATM proceeds. Assuming 2.5–3% participation in reconstructed September 29–October 1 dollar turnover gives approximately $26.5–31.8M after commissions—below the roughly 4.35% participation benchmark for BMNR. Sales normally settle T+1, meaning SDEV can receive the cash the next trading day and then deploy it into SKY. —> I reckon ATM size increases soon The four-exchange sample traded just $7.3–12.6M daily. At 10% participation, SDEV would buy roughly $0.73–1.26M per day, taking approximately 24–41 days to deploy $30M if volumes stayed similar. At $0.09, that represents about 333M SKY before slippage. Even measured execution could therefore support a persistent bid for several weeks. That would be true if the CEO is not incentivized to cram all the buying in a 2 week window (right before his warrants become excisersable lol) —because of that I think it will be used over the next week and a half they need to maximise the balance sheet which rerates the mNAV as well... >$30m spot bid over 2 weeks... Sky's august net revenue reached $15.75M, roughly 50% above July. Higher yields on the assets backing USDS can also support protocol earnings. The reported pickup in SKY spot volume alongside SDEV’s rally is consistent with this mechanism beginning to work. With SKY attempting a weekly breakout through $0.09, the setup combines improving earnings, technical momentum and a potentially meaningful buyer. The key confirmation is actual ATM proceeds followed by additional SKY purchases; a sustained daily close above $0.09 would strengthen the technical case.
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1/ Spot trader who caught the privacy narrative perfectly is long ethereum:0xca14007eff0db1f8135f4c25b34de49ab0d42766 Don’t fade
bought $740k of starknet this week (yes, seriously). here's the thinking, and i'll say up front that this is one of the grossest charts i've ever seen and makes me want to throw up. it's down about 99% from the launch highs and it's been down only for 2.5 years. i'd guess 99 out of 100 people who know what it is, hate it, and based on the pa i don't blame them at all. price leads narrative, so when a chart looks like that nobody has anything nice to say about it. that's kind of why i'm here. chart starting to look bulla: i'm seeing big bullish div on the weekly as well as rsi back above 50 and is currently retesting. price is curling up and building a base. to me that has the makings of a long term major bottom. narrative: "programmable zcash" zcash led this cycle and near ran after it as the next privacy play, and i think starknet could be third in line. there are deep connections between zcash cofounders and the starknet team. starknet shipped native privacy in june, so you can shield basically any token on the chain, and there's a private version of bitcoin on there too. the proofs it runs on are quantum resistant (nice buzzword for the future). there's also a proposal called ztarknet to build a starknet style layer 2 directly on top of zcash. so the simple version is it is "programmable zcash", zcash's little brother sitting at 315m mcap. this reminds me a lot of near. i bought about $2m of near around a $1.40 back in march and april. literally no one was talking about it, let alone buying it and most of my replies were some version of: "why near? it's a 2021 shitcoin that's down only, you're throwing your money away" now everyone loves near. the chart then looked a lot like the strk chart does now. it went on to roughly 3x from there in 6 months. too bad i didn't hold it. i got shaken out, which was bad execution on my part, but the thesis played out. the big difference is that near had intents, a product people actually used and adds value. starknet doesn't have that yet. hardly anyone uses the chain, revenue is basically nothing, and there's no app people care about. but these guys are well funded and seem to be shipping new things. where i could see a real product gain traction is private trading. on hyperliquid every wallet and every trade is public, so people get copy traded, whales get hunted, wallets get flagged. i think there's a market for a dex where you keep your own keys and nobody can see your positions. some of that is already live on starknet, private swaps and private perps, it just doesn't have users yet. and every private transaction costs 4 strk, so if that ever gets real usage the token is right in the path of it. i also played around with an options app on starknet called supervega for a few minutes. haven't placed a trade but the ui was clean. the token unlocks have been the main reason to hate the coin. 127m tokens a month. here's the good news, there are only 6 unlocks left and the last one is march of 2027. each one is around $5.5m at current prices and about 74% of supply is already out. the september one got absorbed without a problem. feels to me like the sellers are mostly done. the market usually front runs these things. last thing. if this does get going it has the potential to be a hated rally, and i kind of like that. a lot of people will want to fade it or short it because of what it did to them, and that kind of thing gets a coin talked about and can push a move further than it would normally go. the risks are obvious (mainly, no real usage). time will tell if i have gone full schizo, or if this will be a nice play. we'll see.
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4/ STARKNET
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Team is shipping while there’s only 7 cliffs left since late July: - Endur private liquid staking for STRK and BTC (29 Jul) - OffMarket private Polymarket trading (25 Aug), then confidential prediction-market trading on mainnet (18 Sep) - DashX private payroll (4 Sep) - strkBTC with optional shielding (11 Sep) - Ekubo private swaps (22 Sep) - STRK20 privacy pool at protocol level (24 Sep)
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I like ethereum:0x56072c95faa701256059aa122697b133aded9279 here because the apparent squeeze in SDEV could finance a substantial spot bid that takes weeks to deploy R01 and Framework hold approximately 87.6% of disclosed common shares, leaving roughly 6.4M outside those blocks, against around 1.2M reported shares short. Concentrated ownership and restrictions on large-holder resales help explain why the stock can move so aggressively. At the October 1 close, SDEV traded at approximately 3.7x warrant-adjusted NAV, it already has a $100M ATM facility, with $84.5M remaining at the last disclosed July update. My working estimate is around $30M of potential ATM proceeds. Assuming 2.5–3% participation in reconstructed September 29–October 1 dollar turnover gives approximately $26.5–31.8M after commissions—below the roughly 4.35% participation benchmark for BMNR. Sales normally settle T+1, meaning SDEV can receive the cash the next trading day and then deploy it into SKY. —> I reckon ATM size increases soon The four-exchange sample traded just $7.3–12.6M daily. At 10% participation, SDEV would buy roughly $0.73–1.26M per day, taking approximately 24–41 days to deploy $30M if volumes stayed similar. At $0.09, that represents about 333M SKY before slippage. Even measured execution could therefore support a persistent bid for several weeks. That would be true if the CEO is not incentivized to cram all the buying in a 2 week window (right before his warrants become excisersable lol) —because of that I think it will be used over the next week and a half they need to maximise the balance sheet which rerates the mNAV as well... >$30m spot bid over 2 weeks... Sky's august net revenue reached $15.75M, roughly 50% above July. Higher yields on the assets backing USDS can also support protocol earnings. The reported pickup in SKY spot volume alongside SDEV’s rally is consistent with this mechanism beginning to work. With SKY attempting a weekly breakout through $0.09, the setup combines improving earnings, technical momentum and a potentially meaningful buyer. The key confirmation is actual ATM proceeds followed by additional SKY purchases; a sustained daily close above $0.09 would strengthen the technical case.
SDEV Session $ Notional Sep 29 $556.6M Sep 30 $76.5M Oct 1 (partial) ≈$332.9M (estimate) 3-session avg ≈$322.0M 5-session avg ≈$201.9M
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SDEV Session $ Notional Sep 29 $556.6M Sep 30 $76.5M Oct 1 (partial) ≈$332.9M (estimate) 3-session avg ≈$322.0M 5-session avg ≈$201.9M
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ask @Cbb0fe the most unhinged questions he will respond If not I will force him to answer
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