In a $BTC bull market you long the sweeps. It really is that simple... But again, there will always be a reason to sell, right? I mean, cmon… you can’t be that naive.🤣

My $BTC monday high pivot strategy is proving itself yet again. I’ve been posting about this for 1.5 years straight, and it keeps playing out. It’s most consistent in ranging markets, where it catches those 2-3% inverse moves. This is the result of relentless backtesting which is why you haven't seen this mentioned anywhere else before...

It is extremely important that... if we are following the 2023 fractal, $BTC now shows acceptance back within the range on the LTFs after deviating above the highs. Right now, USDT.D has also deviated above its highs, similar to what we saw in 2023, and is now pushing back up for a retest. If this retest forms a lower high, it would strongly suggest USDT.D is continuing its macro downtrend. That would support the idea that BTC is forming a higher low here before expanding towards 90K. What we do not want to see is USDT.D reclaiming those highs and holding above them with no sign of rejection. If that happens, it would suggest BTC is likely headed back towards the low 70Ks. These are the key levels to watch now in determining whether this low is truly in... or not.

A lot of people are posting previous cycle corrections as though Bitcoin is guaranteed to mirror them perfectly. That is a big mistake. This cycle is different, whether people like it or not. We have retraced roughly 50% of the entire bear market decline, something we have never seen before. Add in the largest short-liquidation event from 62K to 80K, and the context is completely different. You cannot compare cycles that saw 77–80% drawdowns and then expect the same depth of corrections now. We bottomed around -54%. That materially changes the scale of pullbacks we should expect throughout the bull market. The implication is simple: corrections are likely to be shallower than in previous cycles. Expecting identical downside because an old fractal looks similar is the same linear thinking that had people convinced Bitcoin would follow the exact same cycle pattern forever. I was one of the first to recognise that the cycles were speeding up, meaning an earlier bottom, and positioned accordingly. Posting a fractal without accounting for the wider context is narrow minded analysis. In 2023, BTC dropped 77%. During the recovery from 16K to 69K, the deepest correction was roughly 21%. This cycle, BTC only dropped 54%, around one third less severe. Applying that same logic, a 21% correction reduced by one-third would put the largest pullback closer to 14%. A 14% drop from the 87K highs puts $BTC almost precisely at 75K. And thats if we get the full blown corrrection from 87K. It could be from 95K down to 80K. It's to soon to say. So even in a full-scale correction from here, we are only around 6% away from that level. Are you really willing to miss a potential 60% move higher because you are waiting for an extra 6% lower? I wouldn’t be. Larger capital clearly isn’t either. I still believe the 92-95K region is where we could see a more meaningful, broader correction, but it may simply take time to get there. For those still waiting on 70K: based on the maths, the context, and the way this cycle has behaved, there is a real chance we never see it again. Even another test of 75K would be a gift. You need to adjust your mindset if you expect corrections to mirror prior cycles. This cycle has already been structurally different from the moment it bottomed. This is Wall Street’s asset now.

October 14th is the date to watch for $BTC My 14th pivots have been producing inverse narrative moves. We saw the same setup around 75K before the move into 87K, a move I was long on. If a bearish narrative develops into October 14th, I will be looking for the inverse: a move higher. If bullish sentiment takes over into that date, then I would anticipate the opposite, a potential bearish move. There is still a full week of price action left before then, so it will be very interesting to see how the narrative develops.

Rinse and repeat throughout this entire range. Pump NY open, then reverse the entire move. Their intentions are pretty obvious. Make $BTC shorts comfortable enough to keep pressing entries, then wick price back up and blow them out in one candle, just like every previous range.

I will be hedging my $BTC long from 76.4K in this box. It will be a equal hedge with invalidation at 92.8K.

We bottomed in July. 2 months before Q4. So, as I have said. I think BTC will be trading above 126K Q2-Q3. Q4 ends up de-risking instead of going parabolic. Everyone gets confused, thinking wtf next? We are blind? No, you are blind, I am not. $BTC will not top in Q4 this cycle.

$BTC will break ATH between April 26th-August 2nd. I said we would bottom sooner, we did. Now, we will form a new ATH quicker than everyone's expectations. Maybe you should start listening.

Topped December, bottomed december. Topped November, bottomed November. Topped October, higher low bottom?

$BTC Current barrier is 85.2K. We are compressing beneath it with multiple rejections. We have already swept liquidity on yesterday’s wick, so if we cannot reclaim and hold above 85K , I would expect price to trend back down. For now, it looks like BTC is being held in a tight, compressed range to build liquidity and make most people uncomfortable. If we sweep 82.5K, I would be looking for a move into the box below instead, retesting the capitulation wick area. On the other hand, if we reclaim 85K with force, I think we squeeze aggressively back towards the highs.

There is no worse feeling than watching $BTC pump without you. Unfortunately, we are at the peak stage of disbelief despite a significant shift in trend. Any downside should be bought aggressively and quickly. Keep leverage low. If you want to make big money, you need to trade like big money. In the 2023 bull market, if you longed every sweep of the established low, the deepest deviation below it was just 8%. Some only being 4-5% before pushing right back up again. That means 7–10x lev longs around prior lows can be relatively safe for the move towards ATH, provided risk is managed properly. It is mathematics. Study. Our current established low is 82.5K, and based on historical behaviour, the expected deviation should be minimal.

The larger corrections happen when $BTC is in price discovery. We’re not there right now. Sometimes keeping it this simple is how you make the most money in a trending market.

To accomplish great things, we must not only act, but also dream; not only plan, but also bullieve.

Given that everyone missed the "Q4 bottom," this is now the new profound scenario everyone is watching and hoping for. I mean, if I had been waiting for Q4 and watched price rally the way it has, I would probably be praying for this too. That said, there are many differences between the two. In 2023, when $BTC rallied to 25K, it created equal high before rejecting. There was no meaningful close above the level, no significant high established above 25K, it simply rejected almost immediately. It only deviated above the local lower high and formed an EQH. Currently, BTC has created a weekly higher high. That is a completely different shift in market structure. We are now ranging above the previous highs that were flipped, which is a very different dynamic to 2023. On top of that, the bear market drawdown was roughly 77% in that cycle, whereas this one was around 54%. If we apply the same logic of diminishing returns and shallower retests, the largest pullbacks during this bull market are likely closer to 10-15% all the way up to 126K. A 10% drop brings BTC to roughly 78K. A 15% drop brings it to around 74K. So even if we followed this fractal identically, it would not necessarily produce the meaningful sweep below the lows that we saw in 2023. The fractal cannot mirror perfectly, even if price retraces below the prior range high. Regardless, I’m sure a large number of sidelined traders would love the opportunity to long the area they missed. The market has a funny way of not giving people exactly what they want. With OI reset and price ranging above prior highs, the market looks healthy to me. This is not the scenario I am positioning for; I am still looking towards the 90Ks. Just thought I would comment on it, as I am seeing this everywhere, exactly like when everyone was waiting for the bottom in Q4.

Something to consider deeply… Next $BTC bear cycle, we may never trade below 100K again. This cycle only deviated 16% below the prior ATH. If BTC tops at 160K-180K, even a similar deviation keeps the next bear-market low above 100K. This could genuinely be the last cycle you ever get to buy BTC under 100K.