Tech exec turned writer. Helped scale Yelp $1M → $750M, now writing literary fiction. Follow along: https://xitter.cf/t.co/LqN6yflr2H

Austin, TX
Joined March 2009
OOO
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So hard to drop your kid off at school the morning after another school shooting. Whoever you plan to vote for —please ask them what they intend to do to address this and end school shootings in America And then let’s hold them accountable We can’t accept the way things are.
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bingo
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The vast majority of Texans agree with this approach.
.@JamesTalarico: I’m an 8th generation Texan. I went to public schools here in Texas that were funded by the oil and gas industry, so I owe a lot to that industry. I’m campaigning on an all-of-the-above energy strategy that includes oil and gas. I want to protect good-paying oil and gas jobs, and I want us to invest in the energy sources of the future so that we can stay dominant. I will stand up to my own party if they mess with our oil and gas industry, and I will stand up to the other party if they mess with renewables. We can grow this industry and stay an energy leader in the 21st century just like we were in the 20th.
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Eight years ago we went to Seville and were wandering around time and stumbled into Columbus’ tomb.
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Why isn’t there a word for this? When a personal decision becomes an identity, and then that identity becomes the standard by which everyone else is judged. Everyone has one. Parenting style, diet, alcohol, political party, career choice. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
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perhaps it’s because i am italian but i simply do not understand this archetype of Dads who don’t cook. are there actual families with two working parents where one partner handles all of of the meals? crazy
JUST WONDERING HOW MOMS are supposed to work 9-5, drop the kids off at school at 8 AM, pick them up by 3 PM, stay on top of school activities, meal prep, cook dinner, keep the house clean, do the laundry, run the kids to extracurricular activities, climb the corporate ladder, save sick days for when the kids are sick, be a good friend, daughter, and partner, all while trying to take care of their own body and mental health…
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we need journalists now more than ever. everyone tweeting about AI has their own set of priorities and more importantly a healthy dose of ego.
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
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