
Our mission is to improve the financial affairs of as many people as possible. PEF founder @andyroocraig has some best selling books to get started...
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Joined March 2015
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US ten-year yields have topped 5.3% and Japan’s are above 3% for the first time since 1996. @TheEconomist looks at which governments are most exposed, and why the danger is greatest where borrowing costs outstrip growth.
economist.com/briefing/2026/…
“THE RICH DON’T PAY ANY TAX”
@andyroocraig argues this is factually incorrect nonsense.
The UK’s top 1% of income taxpayers pay over a quarter of all income tax, and the top 100 taxpayers paid around £5.76bn between them last year.
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgk…
The US is still third in the Global Innovation Index, but @TheEconomist says it has slipped on several of the most up-to-date measures. On one metric that tracks the risks businesses face, it has fallen from 23rd to 36th in the space of a year.
economist.com/graphic-detail…
Dan McEvoy discusses the different kinds of risk in investing, from short-term volatility to permanent capital loss in this piece in @MoneyWeek.
moneyweek.com/investments/ri…
AI chatbots gave wrong answers to financial queries 57% of the time on average according to research reported in @FT. For queries requiring multiple calculations, that rose to 88%!
Are you asking AI finance questions?
(May be paywalled for some readers)
ft.com/content/c0cd359d-df84…
This week's good news from Fix The News: Beijing's smog down 70% in a decade, meningitis deaths nearly halved since 2000, and the first new wild cat species since 1923.
This is a great read to counter the constant negative press bias. @andyroocraig
substack.fixthenews.com/p/35…
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE FTSE IS NOT A SIGN OF ECONOMIC STRENGTH!
In our latest video @andyroocraig argues the FTSE's all-time highs owe a lot to overseas buyers taking over cheap UK companies, plus £250bn+ of buybacks. Not a booming market: a fire sale.
youtu.be/w9-qn-v_i0g
Plain English Finance retweeted
THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THE FTSE IS NOT A SIGN OF ECONOMIC STRENGTH!
Our politicians keep telling us the FTSE hitting all-time highs is great news. In my latest video I show just how wrong this is.
British shares have underperformed US shares by about 3% a year for nearly three decades. Had the FTSE tracked more in line with the S&P, it would be at more like 40,000 by now, not 10,700.
The obvious pushback here is: "US stocks have always outperformed."
This is simply not true. For decades of the 20th Century, UK and US returns tracked each other quite closely. Almost all of the divergence has come in the last 30 years.
It has mainly been down to our own policies from the 1990s onwards – driving our pension funds from having more than half of their capital in our own stock market 30 years ago, to c.3-4% today.
US shares are now valued about 60% higher than British ones. This is one of the largest valuation gaps ever, and almost all of it opened up in the last 15 years.
So what is ACTUALLY driving the recent rise in the FTSE? Sadly, not much that is anything to celebrate: A big driver of the headline level right now is that so many of our companies are being ACQUIRED - by overseas buyers - because they are so cheap.
In the first half of 2026 alone, there were 25 takeover bids for UK-listed companies. SIX FTSE 100 companies have accepted bids this year: easyJet, Schroders, Beazley, Intertek, DCC and SEGRO.
The average takeover premium has been c.45%. That has an artificial, short-term effect on the headline level of the market.
Plus - FTSE 100 companies have bought back more than a quarter of a TRILLION pounds of their own shares in recent years, including a record £58 billion last year: Hundreds of billions spent propping up share prices, rather than invested in jobs, factories and research.
This is not a booming national stock market.
This is a fire sale of companies that have taken decades, or even centuries, to build.
We can only do this trick until all of our companies are gone.
Put another way: We are currently "mining" the value of our stock market, rather than "farming" it.
And it gets worse: The fundamental job of a stock market is to raise money for companies to grow. Our IPO market is down more than 90% since the turn of the century, and we've lost nearly half of our listed companies since the 90s.
That hollowing out has probably cost the UK as much as £20 trillion since the late 90s. That's £460,000 for every working-age British adult.
Our politicians either don't understand this stuff, or they do, and they are being incredibly dishonest.
Link to the video below. Please do share with anyone who thinks the current level of the FTSE is anything to celebrate!
youtu.be/w9-qn-v_i0g
Active emerging markets funds lagged for three years, blaming a concentrated index. When chip stocks fell in July, active funds lagged again. @simonevancook argues in @citywire that too many managers caved to pressure to hug the index.
citywire.com/funds-insider/n…
(ANOTHER) BIG PROBLEM WITH AI?
@andyroocraig argues investors relying on AI investibility reports can miss key nuance, and the serendipity behind many successes.
This may impact early-stage businesses that can go unfunded as a result.
drbhaskardasgupta1.substack.…
Wealth taxes keep coming back into the discussion mostly because they're easy to explain, argues @MoneyWeek.
Twelve OECD countries had one in 1990. Only three do today.
Critics say they raise little extra and actually push more wealth abroad
Full piece: moneyweek.com/personal-finan…
Plain English Finance retweeted
This will make it the highest wealth tax in the world - unless he reintroduces indexing. Completely mad.
Labour is considering raising capital gains tax (CGT) to fund a £20bn handout for the lowest earners.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor are understood to be reviewing proposals to raise CGT to as high as 45pc to increase the income tax personal allowance ⤵️
telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/ca…
Plain English Finance retweeted
IHT and pensions. I don’t think Labour realise just how much damage this is going to do to their reelection chances. I talk to pensions experts, journalists, advisers, they all talk to other people. Consistently, the number 1 issue by a mile is just how bad this is going to be
Every $1bn into an S&P 500 tracker sends around $70m to Apple and just $100k to the smallest stock in the index.
@andyroocraig discusses why he believes the passive bubble has elements of a Ponzi scheme as strictly defined.
Full conversation on Youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=Vekd1AnQ…
A clip from Part 2 from @andyroocraig's appearance on the Trail Blazers podcast discussing why most real innovation comes from smaller companies that most investors have never heard of and that the next Apple is likely a company you've never heard of
youtube.com/watch?v=Vekd1AnQ…
The Autumn Budget will be announced on 28 October, and speculation on what it contains is starting to build up speed.
Sean McDermott at @lightsidefp has six tips for avoiding decisions made on pre-Budget rumours and speculation.
lightsidefp.co.uk/blog/6-use…
Everyone's heard of Greta Thunberg. Almost nobody's heard of Boyan Slat. In his appearance in part 2 on the Trail Blazers podcast, @andyroocraig discusses why capitalism, not activism, solves the planet's problems.
Watch on Youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=Vekd1AnQ…
EQUITY NOT CASH. RICH PEOPLE ARE NOT SMAUG THE DRAGON! 🐲🐉
@andyroocraig on Trail Blazers explains why we can't debate wealth inequality until politicians grasp the difference between equity and cash. Plus his £5,000 British Newborn ISA idea.
Youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=Vekd1AnQ…
PODCAST: THE PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE OF CAPITAL PRESERVATION.
** NB - The podcast is sponsored by leading investment manager Ruffer **
@andyroocraig and Alexander Chartres discuss capital preservation and argue the case that the 60/40 portfolio has broken
youtu.be/qneUeGfnd5I
Plain English Finance retweeted
Every politician in the world should read this post.
Learn Austrian Economics in one X post:
1. Humans act. Every choice a person makes traces back to an incentive, a trade-off, a cost weighed against a benefit. Remove the incentive and the action stops. Distort the incentive and the action warps.
Tax income at 90% and watch producers stop producing. Subsidize failure and watch failure multiply. The behavior follows the reward structure, always.
2. Value exists only in the mind of the person choosing. A glass of water is worth nothing to a drowning man and everything to a man dying of thirst. No central authority can calculate this, because it changes with every individual and every circumstance.
Nothing has value in itself, only the degree to which humans choose to value it. Diamonds and even gold only carry value because humans decided they do.
3. Money does not come from a government decree. It emerged spontaneously when traders needed something durable, divisible, and widely accepted to escape the limitations of direct barter. Gold won that competition across centuries and across dozens of independent civilizations because the market, not a ministry, chose it.
Fiat currency is the state hijacking that evolved institution and replacing it with paper backed by nothing but a legal threat. Every central bank on earth operates on this model right now.
4. Wealth does not fall from the sky. A farmer who eats his entire harvest produces nothing next season. The farmer who saves seed, plants it, and specializes in what he grows best accumulates a surplus. That surplus is capital. Capital funds everything that comes after.
Consumption without prior production is just burning down the furniture for warmth. Every welfare state eventually reaches this point.
5. Strip private property rights and production collapses. A farmer will work his own land until midnight. That same farmer, working collective land, stops at noon. The Soviet Union ran this experiment across seventy years and killed tens of millions, proving the point.
When you cannot own the outcome, you do not produce the outcome.
6. Voluntary trade generates wealth from nothing but mutual preference. When you pay twelve dollars for a meal, you value the meal above twelve dollars; the restaurant values twelve dollars above the meal. Both parties walk away wealthier in real terms. No politician, no regulator, no bureaucrat added anything.
Protectionism destroys this. The 2018 US steel tariffs raised steel prices for American manufacturers, killed more jobs in steel-consuming industries than existed in steel production itself, and transferred wealth from productive firms to a protected few.
7. Ludwig von Mises identified inflation as a tax. Every dollar the Federal Reserve creates without corresponding production dilutes every dollar you already hold. The new money flows first to the government and its contractors, who spend it at current prices. By the time it reaches you, prices have already risen.
The US M2 money supply grew from roughly 15 trillion dollars in January 2020 to over 21 trillion by early 2022. Consumer prices followed. Your savings took the loss.
8. Prices carry information. A price spike tells producers to produce more and tells consumers to use less. It coordinates millions of strangers without a single central command. Interfere with that signal and the coordination breaks.
Rent control in New York City is the cleanest example. Cap rents below market and landlords stop maintaining buildings, stop building new ones, and convert units to other uses. The people rent control was supposed to help pay the price through collapsing supply.
9. Interest rates are the price of capital over time. When the Federal Reserve pushed rates to near zero between 2008 and 2022, it told every investor that capital was nearly free. Businesses built projects that only made sense at zero percent. When rates normalized, the projects failed. The 2022 collapse of the US tech sector and the crypto market were not random events. They were the correction of a decade of artificially cheap capital.
The business cycle is not a mystery of capitalism. Central banks manufacture it.
10. Bureaucrats face no profit and loss. A businessman who misallocates capital goes bankrupt. A bureaucrat who misallocates capital writes a report requesting more funding. The feedback loop that disciplines markets simply does not exist inside a government agency.
The US Department of Education has spent over a trillion dollars since 1980. Literacy rates have not improved. No one at the department has been bankrupted by this outcome.
11. Every producer inside a local market holds knowledge that no bureaucrat in a capital city can replicate. A wheat farmer in Kansas tracks soil moisture, futures prices, local equipment costs, his specific buyer relationships, and a hundred other variables simultaneously. That knowledge lives in the price he sets.
Friedrich Hayek called this tacit knowledge in 1945. The Soviet central planners ignored him and spent fifty years proving him correct, producing chronic shortages of goods that private markets coordinate effortlessly. No model, no algorithm, and no committee can compress what millions of independent actors know into a single plan.
12. Every government intervention produces effects you see and effects you don't. You see the road the state builds. You don't see the factory the tax dollars never funded, the job that never existed, the innovation that never happened because capital was extracted at gunpoint and redirected by bureaucrats with no skin in the game.
Take the 2009 Cash for Clunkers program. Congress destroyed 690,000 working cars, handed dealers a short-term spike, and you saw the sales numbers. The used car market was stripped of affordable inventory, pricing working-class buyers out for years afterward.
13. Prices, supply chains, and language itself coordinate millions of strangers without any central planner issuing a single command. That coordination is spontaneous order: complex, functional patterns that emerge from individuals pursuing their own goals under rules they did not collectively design. No committee holds the dispersed local knowledge required to replicate what voluntary exchange produces every second.
Watch how English evolved. No king designed its grammar. Millions of speakers across centuries adopted words and structures that worked, dropped ones that didn't, and produced a language richer than any bureaucrat could have engineered. Central planners who believe they can replicate that process with price controls or production quotas destroy the feedback mechanism that generates the order in the first place.
Thanks for reading this long post! What would you add to this list?






