Research Economist at @bankofengland. Member of @CFMUK. Only personal views.
Valencian in London
Joined April 2022
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New paper on energy shocks and monetary policy.
Energy shocks do not just raise inflation. They also raise uncertainty and risk premia. That changes the optimal monetary policy response: because markets already deliver part of the contraction, the central bank needs to tighten less aggressively.
Paper: pau-belda.eu/wp-content/uplo…
🧵(1/N)
🌍 From pandemics to wars, supply disruptions have returned to centre stage.
How should central banks respond?
⚡️ At @PSEinfo Macro Days I showed that when supply disruptions also raise uncertainty, financial markets often tight financing conditions, already cooling down the economy 📉.
🚨 If central banks ignore this, they risk tightening twice — and making the adjustment unnecessarily painful. 📊
📊 Slides: drive.google.com/file/d/1unG…
After today’s NBER SI session on Inequality & Macroeconomics, I’m back tomorrow with a paper that has been with me for a long time...
📈 Capital Gains Taxation and Asset Price Volatility
🕓 4:15 pm
🏛️ NBER Summer Institute — Macro Public Finance
📍Session: nber.org/conferences/si-2026…
📊 Paper: conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
Very excited to present “Learning to Be Rich: How Expectations Amplify Wealth Inequality” tomorrow at 1:15pm ET at the @nberpubs Summer Institute—joint work with @ifrim_a and @JankoHeineken!
📍 Session: nber.org/conferences/si-2026…
📊 Slides: conference.nber.org/conf_pap…
Pau Belda retweeted
Super excited for Inequality and Macro at the NBER SI next week. We have a great line up of papers and discussants. Please see the talks in person if you are there, or remotely via the YouTube link if you aren't. nber.org/conferences/si-2026…
Athens bound 🇬🇷✈️ for the @SEDmeeting!
Tomorrow: Learning to Be Rich — my work with @ifrim_a and @JankoHeineken on how heterogeneous expectations can amplify wealth inequality.
New empirical evidence, and Internal Rationality & Neural Networks for solving heterogeneous-agent models.
July 2, 12pm, Location: Alpha32
Call for Papers!
2nd @bankofengland–@LSEnews Workshop on Behavioural Macro and Finance.
13 Nov 2026, London.
Submit by 21 Aug.
Invited Speakers: James Bullard & @alpsimsek_econ.
For more details: bankofengland.co.uk/events/2…
Proposition 2: once the central bank smooths rates, volatility also affects allocations.
With policy inertia, the central bank cannot fully offset the volatility-induced tightening in private financial conditions. Then endogenous risk premia can worsen the inflation–output trade-off.
Bottom line: risk premia make policy gradualism more costly. (7/N)
Pau Belda retweeted
“Artificial Intelligence and Learning the Macroeconomy: Workshop in Honor of Albert Marcet,” BSE Summer Forum, 19-20 June 2025.
@bse_barcelona
📢 Excited to share I'm back in Barcelona, researching at @CREIResearch and enjoying my first little beast.
Next, I'll join the @bankofengland, in a newly created role to help modernize their modelling toolkit, following the Bernanke Review.
This ends a very rewarding and incredibly instructive period at the @federalreserve.
We go on!
Presenting this paper today at the VIII Winter Macroeconomics Workshop in Bellaterra, organized by @TimTkehoe and @luiserojasd
📢 WP alert!
The US president has called for a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to "improve fiscal sustainability."
But with large external deficits, a US SWF would likely be debt-financed.
With @luiserojasd (@bse_barcelona) & @sarahzoi88 (@FedResearch), we ask this question: 🧵👇
Presenting this paper today at @CREIResearch !
📢 WP alert!
The US president has called for a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to "improve fiscal sustainability."
But with large external deficits, a US SWF would likely be debt-financed.
With @luiserojasd (@bse_barcelona) & @sarahzoi88 (@FedResearch), we ask this question: 🧵👇
📢 WP alert!
The US president has called for a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to "improve fiscal sustainability."
But with large external deficits, a US SWF would likely be debt-financed.
With @luiserojasd (@bse_barcelona) & @sarahzoi88 (@FedResearch), we ask this question: 🧵👇
P.S. If you're a fan of @HannoLustig or @R2Rsquared, hopefully you'll find this suggestive. We explicitly analyze the SWF's impact on the debt risk premium and compare our findings to Reis' Debt Revenue.