Economist @sffed researching links between finance, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy. All views are my own.
San Francisco, CA
Joined June 2009
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New paper: "Reaching for Duration" (with @ThomasMMertens & Andres Schneider).
Why do banks load up on long-term assets exactly when interest rates & term premia are low—and what does QE have to do with it?
A thread. 1/12
Pascal Paul retweeted
Really excited to receive this -- thanks @sffed, very much enjoyed the visit, as always!
Congratulations to @ChristianKWolf, winner of the @sffed's Janet Yellen Award for Monetary Research, presented at our 3rd annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research. 🏆
His contributions to econometrics and macroeconomics are deeply impacting both monetary research and policy.
Pascal Paul retweeted
Congratulations to @ChristianKWolf, winner of the @sffed's Janet Yellen Award for Monetary Research, presented at our 3rd annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research. 🏆
His contributions to econometrics and macroeconomics are deeply impacting both monetary research and policy.
Pascal Paul retweeted
I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
Pascal Paul retweeted
The next Financial Stability Conference, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and @YPFSatYale, will be held in Cleveland and virtually on Nov. 19–20. The event features panel sessions by policymakers, academics and industry professionals, as well as research paper presentations.
ALT Banner for the 2026 Financial Stability Conference, featuring the seal of the Cleveland Fed and the Yale University logo.
Summary of our paper "Monetary Transmission through Bank Securities Portfolios" 👇joint work with @ProfGreenwald and John Krainer, now forthcoming in the Journal of Finance @JofFinance 🎉
How does monetary policy affect bank lending when rate changes revalue securities? A new Economic Letter finds that how regulators treat bank securities shapes how powerfully monetary policy transmits to the broader economy. sffed.us/4ijgIsw
Bottom line: Bank regulation affects the strength of monetary policy transmission!
Here's a link to the paper: pascalpaul.de/wp-content/upl…
On a short tour de suisse🇨🇭for the next week: Basel (BIS)➡️Zurich (Uni, SNB)➡️Bern (Uni). Gruezi, please reach out if you want to chat!
Short trip this week: presenting at the Fed Board (Wed) & the Richmond Fed (Thu). Please reach out if you're around and would like to chat!
We finalized the program of our annual macro-finance conference on Oct 9 @sffed. Looking forward to a great lineup, please reach out if you would like to join!
Takeaway: QE is designed to remove duration risk from the private sector, but it may paradoxically concentrate that risk on bank balance sheets—leaving banks more exposed to runs when rates reverse. A trade-off between QE's intended macro effects & financial stability. 11/12
Comments very welcome! We’ll also present the paper at the NBER SI (Monetary Economics) on Tuesday, come by if you’re around! (though we have strong competition: the World Cup semi-final with France).
Paper here: pascalpaul.de/wp-content/upl….
(Disclaimer: Views are our own) 12/12