Founder and Director at ORC Consultores and Frequency58: Strategy, Political Risk and Public Opinion Associate at De Vengoechea & Partners
Venezuela
Joined June 2009
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oswram retweeted
¡Sold out en formato presencial! 🙌
Ya no quedan cupos en sala, pero aún puedes vivir nuestras Perspectivas Económicas 2027 en formato ONLINE. 💻 ¿Tiene tu equipo su ruta trazada para el próximo año? 🎯
Contaremos con un panel multidisciplinario evaluará los escenarios 2027 desde todos los ángulos:
🔹 @agrisanti: Panorama macroeconómico
🔹 @gracielauu: Planificación y escenarios
🔹 @aafiuni y A. Velázquez (EY): Riesgos y viabilidad fiscal
🔹 Pedro Palma: Dolarización de la economía
🔹 @oswram: Entorno político y transición
🗓 03 de noviembre
⏰ 8:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.
📩 foros@ecoanalitica.net | 📞 0424.1365629
Gracias a nuestros patrocinantes estelares:
✅ @c2s_pr (Consultoría en TI)
✅ @exiauto (Tu Toyota del este 🚗)
✅ @tebcavenezuela (Soluciones de pago)
¡Nos vemos en línea! ⚡
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oswram retweeted
Según la última encuesta de ORC Consultores, un 38-39 % confía en la mesa de negociación frente a un 50 % que no. La mayor confianza (66 %) proviene del sector opositor, explicó Oswaldo Ramírez, analista político (@oswram).
#EstoEsAmérica aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=edEu_nMG…
oswram retweeted
"Lamentablemente, no vemos una elección de ninguna naturaleza en los próximos seis meses sin antes transitar por acciones concretas que garanticen comicios libres, justos y el respeto al derecho del venezolano a elegir”, dijo Oswaldo Ramírez (@oswram), analista político.
#EstoEsAmérica aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=edEu_nMG…
oswram retweeted
Oswaldo Ramírez (@oswram), analista político: “No se pueden convocar elecciones verdaderamente libres y justas bajo el actual tinglado institucional. Las inhabilitaciones políticas, el secuestro de partidos y la falta de garantías sobre la voluntad popular evidencian la urgencia de revisar a fondo el sistema electoral”.
#EstoEsAmérica aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=edEu_nMG…
oswram retweeted
La mesa de negociación divide a los venezolanos: un 38-39 % confía en ella y un 50 % no, según la última encuesta de ORC Consultores citada por el analista Oswaldo Ramírez (@oswram ) en @VPITV . La mayor confianza (66 %) viene del sector opositor. #Venezuela
Según la última encuesta de ORC Consultores, un 38-39 % confía en la mesa de negociación frente a un 50 % que no. La mayor confianza (66 %) proviene del sector opositor, explicó Oswaldo Ramírez, analista político (@oswram).
#EstoEsAmérica aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=edEu_nMG…
oswram retweeted
Vuelve María Corina Machado a Venezuela y el tablero político se reconfigura ¿Qué podemos esperar ahora?, entrevista a nuestro director @oswram en @lagranaldea
youtube.com/live/9n2Wi-vvqqQ…
oswram retweeted
Nuestro director @oswram conversando sobre el regreso de María Corina Machado y la agenda de los EEUU en Venezuela youtube.com/live/Gm3OywAF6R4…
oswram retweeted
New ECMWF seasonal guidance shows *six straight months* of record-breaking El Niño conditions, with a peak above 4°C in December.
This event is showing signs of potentially lingering longer into 2027, with El Niño's influence on the weather continuing through spring.
oswram retweeted
Shell CEO: 🇻🇪Venezuela's gas is our competitive edge
Wael Sawan says Shell sees its advantage in Venezuela in natural gas rather than in the country's huge heavy oil reserves.
That choice shows where money is easier to make.
Venezuela's heavy crude has to be diluted or upgraded before it can be sold, and it trades at a discount.
Its offshore gas sits right next to infrastructure that already exists in 🇹🇹Trinidad.
In June Shell signed five agreements in Venezuela. One brings it into the 7 Tcf Loran field. Shell also holds 80% of the 4.2 Tcf Dragon project, and Trinidad's NGC holds the other 20%.
Loran crosses the border into Trinidad's Manatee field, which holds 2.7 Tcf. The gas will come ashore at Trinidad's Beachfield facility through a pipeline that has been upsized to carry 1 bcf/d, up from 700 mmcf/d. First gas is targeted for mid 2027.
Each party gets something.
Trinidad's LNG and petrochemical plants are short of gas.
NGC wants to restart Atlantic LNG Train 1, which is currently idle.
Venezuela gets a way to earn from offshore gas it could not develop on its own.
Shell gets cheaper feed gas for an LNG system it already runs, plus more cargoes for its trading arm.
The risk is politics.... Sawan calls himself "cautiously optimistic" and says that kind of confidence "does not develop overnight".
Sanctions and politics have held up Dragon for years.
If the licences hold, Venezuela becomes a gas supplier to the Caribbean LNG hub. If they don't, the gas stays in the ground.
Source: Reuters, Offshore Engineer, Baird Maritime
$SHEL
oswram retweeted
BREAKING: New maps show Earth almost entirely in the red 🔴
El Niño continues at "maximum power" into the winter with planetary heating dialed up everywhere EXCEPT the United States.
Colder than normal in February --> massive "snow dumps" and sloppy ice storms. Wow!
oswram retweeted
Very unlikely that this El Niño will peak earlier than the expected peak of Dec-Jan-Feb. The key question is when and how it will terminate. I hope it puts up a dramatic show like the end of 1997 El Niño into the 1998 La Niña. Latest NOAA update from 3 days ago shows that easterly anomalies keep popping up in the far east but westerly wind bursts have become fully coupled multiplicative noise and aren’t showing any sign of relaxing. Subsurface heat is still available to keep SSTs getting warmer. WWBs will soon shift south with the deep convection and produce northerly wind anomalies into the equator as a convergence into deep convection. That’s the beginning of the end of El Niño usually. But this kid is capable of surprising us! We just wait and watch. A podcast coming up on other details of forecasts.
oswram retweeted
El Niño is predicted to peak at +4.2°C in December, according to new CanSIPS data — with record-breaking conditions forecast to last through February.
This model shows a relative La Niña developing in July 2027, while the model's traditional index indicates neutral conditions.
oswram retweeted
Donald Trump’s interventions are unpopular, but tough talk on security resonates economist.com/the-americas/2…
oswram retweeted
Anthropic’s Economics team is sharing a new model of how AI might affect economic growth, jobs, wages, and more by 2030.
Explore the scenarios, tell us what you think will happen, and see how your answers compare to more than 10,000 Americans. anthropic.com/institute/econ…
oswram retweeted
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that a nuclear agreement with Iran might not be achievable anytime soon and that U.S. military action was still needed.
A deal “may await a next administration in Iran,” Wright said. wapo.st/4gTi5fw
oswram retweeted
The Niño 1+2 Index near Peru and Ecuador has reached a remarkable, record-breaking 4.8°C above average, surpassing the record from 1983.
Ocean temperatures are forecast to surge toward 6°C above average during October.
There is no modern precedent for these conditions.
oswram retweeted
⚖️ VENEZUELA | "Washington busca construir instituciones firmes antes de fijar una fecha electoral". Oswaldo Ramírez (ORC Consultores) analiza en #NoticiasTVV la postura expuesta por Marco Rubio.
Ver entrevista completa ⬇️
📲 onelink.to/4h4t9t
#TVV
oswram retweeted
#NoticiasAhora | El consultor político Oswaldo Ramírez señaló que #Venezuela debe avanzar en un proceso de reinstitucionalización antes de celebrar nuevas elecciones, mientras el país se prepara para una segunda ronda de negociaciones.
Ramírez destacó la modificación de la ley que permitirá ampliar la comisión encargada de escoger a los próximos magistrados del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia. “Esos pasos hay que darlos con la suficiente firmeza para que no se caiga todo ese plan”, afirmó.
Sobre las elecciones, sostuvo que primero deben sentarse las bases para garantizar un proceso libre y justo, incluyendo la renovación de instituciones como el TSJ y, eventualmente, el Consejo Nacional Electoral. “Hay que sentar las bases para que en Venezuela haya elecciones libres y justas”, dijo.
Sintoniza la #EmisiónMeridiana: bit.ly/4ypTYwq
oswram retweeted
Mike Wirth, Chevron CEO on their $7 billion investment into Venezuela: "There have been significant changes in dispute resolution provisions and assurance of terms and economics in the contracts. They’ve got enforceable mechanisms that give us a different degree of confidence today to make these investments than there would have been a year ago."
CNBC's @SullyCNBC: "So things, fair to say, the operating environment here has evolved enough where you’re willing to commit the seven billion like that? If it wasn’t for that change, that seven billion of additional capital may not have occurred."
Wirth: "I think that’s fair to say. The Venezuelan government and the US government both see the opportunity to improve regional energy security, US energy security, improve reliable supply to US refineries, and bring investment and development to the Venezuelan economy. So both governments have been very supportive of this evolution of terms to encourage investment from companies like ours, and I expect there will be others."
oswram retweeted
¿Meses y no años? El verdadero tablero político y social que determinará el futuro de Venezuela tras los terremotos y el 3ENE.
substack.com/home/post/p-210…
