Research @blocmates | Applying TradFi frameworks & valuation to crypto protocols with real cash flows | Prev +10yr equity research, $50bn AUM fund & IB

Joined October 2010
I valued Hyperliquid the way institutions value equities: two-phase DCF, steady state PE, diluted forward earnings, one in-house model, cash flows adjusted for risk and dilution. All three methods point one way. Fair value $118, +68% vs $70 today, probability weighted. Bull case $281, +301%. At the current price, the expected growth and multiple compression are not sufficiently priced in. $HYPE is set to post a diluted EPS CAGR of 30% base case (bull: 51%) over the next 7 years, driving its earnings yield up towards 15% in 2030, even after modeling for full dilution of the Core Contributor tokens but before adjusting for risk. The valuation framework explained, step by step, in the thread below, along with a link to the full analysis report and the interactive valuation model.
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I dream of a world where people don’t hate others just for having an opinion about markets that differs from theirs
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Early retirement sounds great, but it can get boring fast. A fixed work schedule gives you structure, deadlines, people to answer to, and a reason to get up. Most people are more disciplined when something is expected from them. Without that, days can start blending in together, trust me I've been there lol. You skip the gym, skip meeting friends, delay projects, lose routine, and eventually feel disconnected from the outer world. The goal shouldn’t be to stop working at 30 (or whatever age goal you have). It should be to have enough freedom to only work on things you actually care about.
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If you see various large crypto-x accounts all shilling the same meme-coin, by now you hopefully understand how it works: 1: various large crypto-x accounts coordinate between each other which coin they are going to pump, or sometimes they even create the coin 2: they take vary large positions in this coin when price is low 3: pretend on X to have found the next ¨coin of the cycle¨ and start shilling it hard, posting it over and over again on their accounts 4: once coin takes off, they unload on the newbies, moving on to the next 5: coin eventually goes back to zero standard playbook
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I'm curious. At this stage the @RobinhoodCrypto tokenized stock tracks the price of the original stock, as a debt instrument with no voting rights. So, price discovery and fund raising over the longer run is still ultimately driven by the underlying stock. But what happens when one has insider info on the underlying stock, and also has access to a no KYC decentralized wallet that enables trading in a non regulated market? Will become interesting, the more so when tokenized stocks will grow in relative importance and move from memes to mainstream usage with size.
Seriously? What’s the concern you ask, @vladtenev? The list of concerns is almost existential. U.S. securities laws are in place to protect investors. For good reason, we spend millions and millions of dollars every year to comply with U.S. securities laws. In good. conscience, how can Robinhood as a U.S. company set up an operation in far offshore Jersey, an island 3000 miles away, and market a security sort of posing as AMC in some shape or fashion, and not comply with U.S. securities laws. That is shocking and shameful. Our past issuance of equity to strengthen our balance sheet was vital to our success. Your setting up some kind of fictitious synthetic equity market decouples stock token ownership from a company’s ability to control its own capital raising efforts. Share ownership gives shareholders various rights, including the right to vote their shares. Your stock token pretend to be some form of stock ownership, but disclosures to the contrary notwithstanding, they are not ownership and they deprive investors of their rights. This quasi-fake market you are creating on the island of Jersey sows distrust amongst the public about financial markets in general. There already is distrust in financial institutions, you are potentially making it far worse. These are but a few of my concerns about your actions. I hereby call on you and Robinhood to voluntarily CEASE AND DECIST the trading of AMC stock tokens. If you don’t, our high priced securities counsel has been asked to see whether we can force you to stop. I also wonder how can the SEC possibly support your sham ignoring of U.S. securities laws. You can be sure we will be asking them.
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The loudest KOLs are the ones you should trust the least Jumping from one thing to the next, calling out everyone when they are right, never owning when they are wrong. The ones telling you they want you to succeed but use you as exit liquidity and a cash cow every day Watch
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Tokenized stocks 101
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ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 was $30m mc when we released this article in july we have got a load of written pieces in the works coming out soon, covering some of the most interesting teams across the space there's a lot of opportunity out there
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stop waiting for altseason aka the rising tide that lifts all boats. stop waiting for the stupid 4 year cycle to come save you. that era is over and it’s not coming back the way you remember it. you’re wasting your time. you really have two choices left in this market: either you go full degen on memecoins, accept that you’re a gambler, and play online casino all day. no shame in it, just be honest with yourself about what it is. or you focus on real onchain businesses with actual revenue and hypergrowth potential. might be less dopamine, but much better risk reward in the latter if you ask me.
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The more alignment of interest between founders and minority investors, the higher valuation of the same cash flow should be Recommend this analysis on how to apply required returns and risk premiums on token valuation, applying best practices of the equity market
there really are levels to token alignment but I'm curious how others are underwriting the "tiers" below. does a protocol deserve full marks for directing revenue to tokenholders, or is that not the complete story?
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If you're wondering why the market is green today: The ethics clause on the CLARITY Act appears to be resolved. That single provision, the conflict-of-interest rule around government officials' crypto holdings, is what held this entire bill hostage for months. Democrats pushed hard for it while Trump kept filling his bags with one crypto scheme after another and dumping on retail. But it now seems like real progress has finally been made, with the White House reportedly conceding to language described as "more aggressive than anything seen before." Next up: a Senate floor vote before Congress leaves for August recess on Aug 7th. Why this is arguably the single biggest catalyst crypto and especially alts have right now (and maybe ever had): CLARITY ends the decade-long jurisdictional war between the SEC and CFTC and permanently codifies which assets are commodities into federal law. No future administration can undo it with a memo. It replaces a decade of "regulation by enforcement" with actual written rules. What that unlocks: Institutional capital that has been stuck on the sidelines. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and the largest asset managers can't hold unclassified assets for compliance reasons. Remove that barrier and they can finally allocate using the exact same frameworks they use for equities and bonds. JPMorgan itself literally called this the trigger that opens the floodgates. On top of that, we get real developer protection, which means more innovation from talent that finally isn't scared away anymore. And real user protection, with rules that would have made any FTX-like collapse structurally impossible. The same kind of collapse we're still suffering from reputationally to this day. And here's the tell: look how much the market moved on just a small procedural win like this. Now imagine what happens when the whole thing actually passes. For reference, when the GENIUS Act was signed last July, total crypto market cap crossed $4 trillion for the first time. CLARITY is bigger. Much bigger.
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The common thread between all my highest conviction spot holds $HYPE: no dual token/equity structure (same can be said for most HyperEVM tokens like $KNTQ, $HPL, $NEST etc) $AERO: no dual token/equity structure $DRV: no dual token/equity structure $LIT: no dual token/equity structure I virtually refuse to invest into anything with a dual token/equity structure. I don't need all value to flow directly to token buybacks, but I'm not willfully sitting in the value accrual cuck chair watching privileged equity holders get rich as my token gets diluted and emitted to 0. I don't care how good of intentions a team claims to have, you can't serve two masters, and tokenholders will ALWAYS get the short end of the stick.
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This is going to piss off a lot of teams. But the TTF now includes KOL/influencer disclosures. For the good of the group.
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Conclusion: want to test the assumptions or go through the full detailed analysis? Three valuation methods point to the same conclusion: at $70, the growth prospect is insufficiently priced in, even after adjusting for risk via the required return and explicitly modeling for dilution. You may disagree with the growth, the dilution or the risk assumptions. That is where the interactive valuation model comes in: change any input and watch the fair value move subject to your assumptions on value drivers. Links to the model and to the full deep dive report on the @blocmates website provided in the 2 comments below.
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Link to my interactive valuation model where you can test your own assumptions: m69vzk.csb.app/
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