$SPY Weekly post. My framework this week is actually pretty simple. First, the bigger picture: The FOMC lows are my line in the sand. After the dividend adjustment, that area is roughly 745–747. As long as SPY holds above that zone, I’m treating the broader market structure as bullish. I don’t care how ugly the headlines look. Yields are elevated. Oil is high. Geopolitical risk remains ugly. The Fed is tightening. And despite all of that, the market keeps holding. At some point you have to trade the price in front of you rather than the story you think should move it. So until 745–747 breaks, bulls still have the benefit of the doubt. That doesn’t mean I’m blindly buying calls. Actually, after this morning’s gap up, the short setup is closer to me than the long setup. I’m watching 770–773 as my main resistance/short zone. Ideally, I’d like SPY around 771–772. If I get the right rejection/weakness there, I’ll look for a swing short with invalidation just above the zone. If weakness shows up a little earlier around 770, I may take it there. I’m not interested in shorting much lower than that. The idea isn’t “the market is crashing.” It’s simply a tactical pullback from major resistance, with roughly 761–762 as the area I’d initially want to target. That’s the type of setup I like: Enter close to resistance, keep invalidation close, and leave enough room underneath for a meaningful move. If SPY clears 773 and starts accepting above it, I’m not going to fight it. At that point, we’re likely looking toward the ATH again and the short thesis is invalidated. On the other side, if SPY never reaches my short zone and sells off without me, that’s fine too. I’ll wait. A move back close to the FOMC low 745–747 area would put the long side back on my radar. If that support holds again, I’d be interested in another swing long. If it decisively breaks, that’s when my broader market view changes bearish and I’d stop looking to buy the dip. So there are really only two areas I’m interested in: Higher ->770–773: look for a tactical short. Lower -> 750-747: look for another long. Everything in between can happen without me. There are two other things I’m watching. VIX is back below 15 and approaching the 13.8–14 area that has repeatedly acted as support. That doesn’t guarantee an equity pullback, but combined with SPY approaching resistance, it makes me more interested in watching for one rather than chasing upside here. And $QQQ may be setting up something very interesting. QQQ is gapping toward the old open gap around 729–730 this morning. If it opens above that area and, importantly, keeps today’s new gap below it open, we’d potentially be looking at an island bottom structure. That would be a legitimately bullish development. If QQQ confirms that structure and starts running, I have to respect the possibility that tech leads the broader market higher and drags SPY through my resistance zone instead of rejecting it. So I’m not married to the short. Price decides. For now, my bias above the FOMC lows remains bullish, while my next potential trade is actually a tactical short if SPY gives me the right setup around 770–773. Sounds contradictory, but it isn’t. You can be bullish on the broader structure and still short a defined move from major resistance back toward support. And if neither of my levels comes? I stay cash. I don’t need to trade the middle. I don’t need a trade every day. Give me my level, give me my confirmation, give me tight invalidation. Otherwise, it can do it without me.