@offlinerob
Account based inUnited States
About this account
- Account based in
- United States
- Connected via
- United States App Store
Account-level information from X, not a live location or the device used for a specific post.
BTC & ETH Insights. Personal Finance. Good vibes. *My posts, replies, etc., are NOT financial advice*
Joined April 2015
- Tweets7K
- Following130
- Followers666
- Likes2.1K
Look at CRCL. It's prior all time high was ~$300, with all time lows sitting ~$50.
I entered into a position at ~$58. Price recently pumped to $100, and is now at $87.
If you believe in the future of stablecoins, CRCL will be a big part of that future. I could see this thing at $500 - $1,000 in the not so distant future.
Is anyone else paranoid about institutional custody? @100trillionUSD I'm looking at you! It's the main thing that keeps me slightly uncomfy with respect to buying the #BTC ETFs.
No one thought cold storage would ever be hacked, and look what happened.
No one thinks that could possibly happen to institutional custody with Coinbase Prime, but why not? It is theoretically possible.
I don't know... maybe it's a bit tinfoil hat'ish, but my spidey senses are going off and I don't like it one bit.
What if all of the recent custody failure is foreshadowing a much larger scale future disaster - aka ETF custody failure. The ETF holders would be left holding the loss.
God, I hope that doesn't happen.
This needs to be posted again. The window of opportunity will close soon. Don't miss it!!
nitter.cf/offlinerob/status/2102…
If you were looking to go long on #BTC during this bear market, but you weren't buying at $60k - $65k, and then price got away from you, and now you're looking at a $85k Bitcoin, you may be feeling like you missed it and it's all over.
Relax. Zoom out.
In the last bear market (2022), the bottom bubble ranged from $15k - $25k, and lasted about 9 months.
If we apply those same price ratios and timeframe to the current bear market, that gives us a potential relative range of $57k - $95k, with the window closing in November.
In 2022, you didn't want to buy at $25k because it was +65% off the $15k bottom. In 2025, when BTC was $120k, no one gave a shit whether they bought at $15k or $25k.
When BTC is at $250k, you're not going to care if you bought it at $60k or $80k. One is a 4x, the other is a 3x. Either way, you're stoked!
You have time to accumulate the lows. THE LOW? Well, you likely missed that, but that's ok. It's not too late to establish a solid position BEFORE we completely pull away into the next bull trend.
We've been watching the 50 week moving average very closely, looking for multiple weekly closes above it, which has historically signaled the end of the bear market and the beginning of the next bull market.
We have now durably broken above the 50W. Based on prior cycle patterns, this should mark the beginning of the next bull cycle, and price should stay above the 50W for several years.
That all said, just because this pattern marked the end of the bear market in the past, doesn't mean that the pattern will hold true today. It would be highly unusual, but it's possible we see significant dips during Q4, maybe even new lows.
If I had to guess, I'd lean towards what the past has shown us. Breaking above the 50W in a durable fashion has always marked the end of the bear market. That is my base case, but I'm open to a black swan event or something along those lines pulling us back down towards the lows one last time before the next full on bull market.
We'll see!
If you were looking to go long on #BTC during this bear market, but you weren't buying at $60k - $65k, and then price got away from you, and now you're looking at a $85k Bitcoin, you may be feeling like you missed it and it's all over.
Relax. Zoom out.
In the last bear market (2022), the bottom bubble ranged from $15k - $25k, and lasted about 9 months.
If we apply those same price ratios and timeframe to the current bear market, that gives us a potential relative range of $57k - $95k, with the window closing in November.
In 2022, you didn't want to buy at $25k because it was +65% off the $15k bottom. In 2025, when BTC was $120k, no one gave a shit whether they bought at $15k or $25k.
When BTC is at $250k, you're not going to care if you bought it at $60k or $80k. One is a 4x, the other is a 3x. Either way, you're stoked!
You have time to accumulate the lows. THE LOW? Well, you likely missed that, but that's ok. It's not too late to establish a solid position BEFORE we completely pull away into the next bull trend.
I think it goes without saying that #BTC has made a move.
Historically, after an extended bear market, when price durably breaks above the 200 day moving average, it signals a possible trend reversal.
If price continues upward and durably breaks above the 50 week moving average, that typically is a nail in the coffin for the bears.
Both of those things have happened (green circles below).
From here, the million dollar question is whether or not we revisit the lows.
Either way is fine, but I sense there are a lot of people who would love another opportunity to enter below $70k. I know I would! haha
If this is the end of the bear market, which history says it should be, congratulations to you for making it through.
Let's see what happens!
Sorry I haven't posted for a while, I was touching grass, and was away from reception.
When we last spoke, we were watching the 200 day and 50 week moving averages.
Historically, after an extended bear trend, if BTC breaks above the 200 day, and durably closes above it, that marks the beginning of the end for the bear trend.
If that breakout is then followed by a break above the 50 week moving average, that's typically game over for the bears, and signal to switch bullish.
We've broken and durably closed above the 200 day, and we're now dancing with the 50 week, which currently sits at $78.7k.
Time will tell, but all eyes are on the 50 week level, waiting to see a breakout followed by durable closes above. If that happens, flipping bullish makes sense.
Busting through the 200D ($69k) so aggressively is something. We're now testing the 50W ($81k), and looking strong.
If price fails to break above $81k, we likely fall to ~$70k, which will now act as support.
Can we put in new lows sometime later this year? Of course! This is crypto lol anything can happen. For now though, things are looking very bullish. Strong confirmation would be several weekly closes above the 200D, then 50W.
The next few weeks and the rest of the year are going to be exciting. Don't stop paying attention. This is lock-in time.
Everyone is watching the 50 Week and 200 Day moving averages.
Typically, when #BTC has 2 weekly closes above the 200 Day, it's very bullish. We are on our way to that happening as we speak.
When price durably breaks above the 50 Week, confirmed by 2 weekly closes, it has consistently marked the end of the bear market.
The next couple of weeks will be exciting to watch. Let's see what happens!
5. Moving Averages
In prior bear markets, BTC price has fallen as deep as the 350W SMA. FTX crash just barely got us there.
Currently, the 350W is sitting at ~$49k. It would take something exceptionally disastrous to get us there. Unlikely.
If we haven't bottomed already (very possible we have), the absolute floor would probably be somewhere between the 350W and 300W, currently $49k - $56k.
6. Summary
In my last summary I said this:
"Bottom territory. Time to Accumulate".
I hope you accumulated!!
We still have another 2'ish months for the market to potentially carve out a deeper bottom, but this recent move to ~$80k is strong as fck, nearly blasting through every price level that matters.
A lower low, somewhere between $49k - $56k is still possible, but hard to fathom after the recent aggressive bullish price action.
Same as last week, any price lower than the 200W SMA, currently $64k, is a good long term entry.
I am 30% deployed.
Avg Entry: ~$59k
I am waiting for bull market confirmation, which would be 2 weekly closes above the 200D SMA ($69k), before I deploy additional capital. If we drop lower than $68k, I'll deploy additional capital. For now, I'm doing nothing.
See you next time 🙂
Chart credit: @benjamincowen @ITC_Crypto