I'm a mechanical engineer who built an NHL prediction model on raw play-by-play data. Fantasy projections, betting lines, and more.
Joined December 2021
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My model is good for more than just fantasy projections. It also has a game prediction engine.
Here's the leak-free back test over the last 5 seasons (1u flat, 3% edge). 3801 bets, 55.6% win, +120.6u.
NHL game lines for October 20 are out. The model lives the Hurricanes over the Canucks, but with where the market is I’m not sure how much value is actually there.
#Gambling𝕏
Here’s the full slate, free through October. Subscribe to get it straight to your inbox every morning. More details and record in the post.
ocelotanalytics.substack.com…
Oct 20 plays @PixelForgePlays
MTL -205
ANA/NYI o5.5 -135
CBJ -162
STL -148
BOS +142
DET -105
CAR -298
Decent week for the model against the close. Just need some teams to show up…
Week 1 of the builders race is in.
@yaboi_Kr beat the closing line on 5 of 13 lines that moved.
@ocelotanalytics beat it on 7 of 9.
@jpetbets, our first capper, gets his first grades this week.
Everyone is graded against the DraftKings close. Wins and losses are just for reference.
pixelforgeplays.github.io/bu…
NHL game lines for Oct 19 are out. Today’s free pick is the Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers.
All the market lines are close to the model today, so pay attention to the price you’re getting.
#Gambling𝕏
Get the full game slate straight to your inbox every morning here: ocelotanalytics.substack.com…
Another week is in the books, which means another look at my NHL prediction model results. CLV remains positive.
It was a decent week, moneylines going 16-13 on 29 bets at a 3% edge, 11-10 on 21 bets at a 5% edge.
Full report in replies.
#Gambling𝕏
NHL game lines for October 18 are out. Hurricanes @ Flames is today's featured game. I've got the over 6.5 in this game, but nothing else today.
#Gambling𝕏
Only 2 games today, so here's the full slate. To get the full slate straight to your inbox every morning sign up here: ocelotanalytics.substack.com…
One of these things is not like the others…
Makes sense to have the Jets/Coyotes/Thrashers records combined though.
#gojetsgo
When the Lightning get the puck in their D-zone there’s always at least one option nearby for a pass. A lot of Canucks breakouts rely on long range passes/dumps… no wonder the ice is tilted. Maybe chalk it up to still learning the system?
Have the lead though so 🤷♂️
Looks like most of the lines have moved my way. Maybe I need to jump on these a day ahead more often…
#Gambling𝕏 #NHL
Some early moneyline bets for tomorrow’s NHL slate (Oct 17). We’ll see how the lines move as news comes out…
#Gambling𝕏
The difference chart tells the story. It shows that top-6 forwards generate better chances. Probably a mix of their own skill and better linemates. We can also see that better players edge grows with distance.
NHL game lines for Oct 17 are out. Hurricanes at Jets is the featured pick, the model likes Carolina a lot more than the market. Access the full 14 game slate in the reply.
#carolinaculture #NHLJets #Gambling𝕏
